No president has been allowed to have a third term since the early 1950s, but if the 22nd Amendment didn't exist and President Obama wanted to run again...do you think he would win?
These approval numbers suggest he would:
The job Barack Obama is doing as president:— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) April 8, 2016
(McClatchy-Marist Poll, RV, 3/29-31)
This is definitely an impressive rebound for him considering his traditional underwater numbers. Many things probably factor into it, such as final year nostalgia, Cuba, the GOP freakshow, and...The way Barack Obama is handling his job as president:— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) April 10, 2016
(Gallup tracking, 4/7-9)
Barack Obama isn't permitted to have four more years, but that doesn't mean that the GOP should get their hopes up...because the next Democratic nominee and our current president pretty much agree on all the important issues. That's a big problem for the likely Republican nominee:
In a stark warning for Donald Trump as he eyes a possible general election showdown with Hillary Clinton, Americans trust the Democratic front-runner more than the Republican businessman to handle a wide range of issues — from immigration to health care to nominating Supreme Court justices.
Even when asked which of the two candidates would be best at "making American great" — the central promise of Trump's campaign — Americans are slightly more likely to side with Clinton, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.
Clinton's edge over Trump on the issues spans foreign and domestic policy.
She holds a significant advantage on handling immigration, health care, the U.S. image abroad, filling Supreme Court vacancies, international trade and working with Congress. Her biggest advantage is on handling gender equality issues, with 55 percent of Americans trusting her and just 12 percent backing Trump.
Clinton has a slimmer lead over Trump on which candidate is trusted to protect the country, with 37 percent backing the Democrat and 31 percent backing the Republican. The margin is similar when Americans were asked who they trusted to handle the threat posed by the Islamic State group.
Much of Trump's appeal with voters has rested on his broad pledge to "make America great again." But when asked which candidate they trusted more to make the country great, 33 percent of Americans picked Clinton and 28 percent backed Trump.That last point is pretty funny and tells you all you need to know. Also, no one should believe that Ted Cruz would fare much better. Heck, maybe worse!
So let's recap:
Popular incumbent (à la Reagan in 1988). Check.
A good economy. Check.
An electorate that agrees with the Democrats on major issues of the day. Check.
An electorate that leans Democratic anyway (by 7% in '08 and 6% in '12). Check.
The only thing we need now is a Democratic nominee who's historic, inspiring, legendarily tough, solidly progressive, incredibly smart, and doesn't give up no matter what.