A few weeks ago, Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com put together a chart showing the required pledged (or elected) delegate targets that Bernie Sanders must it in order to beat Hillary Clinton by the end of the remaining contests. It was ambitious to say the least.
Since then, Sanders won Wisconsin and Wyoming but still missed those state's delegate targets, causing him fall further behind. The chart also required that he win New York by at least 4 points...and as we all know, it ended up being a 16-point Clinton romp instead.
The chart has been updated following last night's decisive results:
|Chart via FiveThirtyEight.com|
In Pennsylvania, Sanders needs to win by 11 but he's down by 13:
Senator Bernie Sanders, fresh off a painful loss in New York, is facing a steep climb in the Pennsylvania primary next week, according to a new poll that shows him losing to Hillary Clinton by double digits.
A Monmouth University survey released on Wednesday found that 52 percent of likely Democratic voters in Pennsylvania support Mrs. Clinton while 39 percent back Mr. Sanders. As has been the case in many states across the country, Mrs. Clinton performs best with women and older voters, while Mr. Sanders is most popular with young men.
“After her win in New York this week, these numbers in nearby Pennsylvania suggest that the entire Northeast is looking pretty good for the Clinton campaign,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.In Maryland, Clinton needs to win by only 5 but instead she's up by 25:
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton looks to be headed for a resounding victory, with 58% to 33% for Bernie Sanders. Clinton's key is that she's winning African Americans who are likely to be close to 40% of the Democratic primary electorate- 70/25. She has a more narrow lead with white voters at 50/41. Clinton has large leads with both men and women, and this is an unusual state in that she's even up 48/43 with voters under 45 to go along with her 66/27 advantage with seniors. One other thing to Clinton's advantage is that 86% of her voters say they're firmly committed to her, compared to 65% of Sanders' who say the same for him. Clinton leads in every party of the state except Western Maryland, although it's closer in the Baltimore suburbs.In Connecticut, Sanders needs to win by 16 but instead he's down by 9:
A 66 – 25 percent lead among black likely Democratic primary voters and a wide margin among women Democrats propel former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to a 51 – 42 percent lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the independent Quinnipiac University Poll finds. Another 6 percent remain undecided and 18 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.Polling out of Delaware and Rhode Island is scant, but there's no reason to believe that Hillary won't win easily in the former while keeping it reasonably close in the latter (considering her win in Massachusetts).
In short, demographics and polling are pointing to another big night for Clinton on April 26th in which she will quite possibly net even more delegates than she did in New York. After that, Sanders will have to sweep every remaining contest except D.C. by completely absurd margins.
To pick the biggest and most obvious example, Bernie will probably need to win California by about 30 points after next Tuesday. However, he'll have to defy the state's demographics as well as every single poll in order to achieve even a very narrow victory.
It's just not going to happen.
Hillary Rodham Clinton will be the Democratic nominee in 2016.