Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Hillary Rodham Clinton Will Be the Democratic Nominee in 2016

A few weeks ago, Nate Silver and put together a chart showing the required pledged (or elected) delegate targets that Bernie Sanders must it in order to beat Hillary Clinton by the end of the remaining contests. It was ambitious to say the least.

Since then, Sanders won Wisconsin and Wyoming but still missed those state's delegate targets, causing him fall further behind. The chart also required that he win New York by at least 4 points...and as we all know, it ended up being a 16-point Clinton romp instead.

The chart has been updated following last night's decisive results:

Chart via
To put it bluntly, this is pure fantasy...and we need only look to the April 26th contests to see why.

In Pennsylvania, Sanders needs to win by 11 but he's down by 13:
Senator Bernie Sanders, fresh off a painful loss in New York, is facing a steep climb in the Pennsylvania primary next week, according to a new poll that shows him losing to Hillary Clinton by double digits.
A Monmouth University survey released on Wednesday found that 52 percent of likely Democratic voters in Pennsylvania support Mrs. Clinton while 39 percent back Mr. Sanders. As has been the case in many states across the country, Mrs. Clinton performs best with women and older voters, while Mr. Sanders is most popular with young men.
“After her win in New York this week, these numbers in nearby Pennsylvania suggest that the entire Northeast is looking pretty good for the Clinton campaign,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
In Maryland, Clinton needs to win by only 5 but instead she's up by 25:
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton looks to be headed for a resounding victory, with 58% to 33% for Bernie Sanders. Clinton's key is that she's winning African Americans who are likely to be close to 40% of the Democratic primary electorate- 70/25. She has a more narrow lead with white voters at 50/41. Clinton has large leads with both men and women, and this is an unusual state in that she's even up 48/43 with voters under 45 to go along with her 66/27 advantage with seniors. One other thing to Clinton's advantage is that 86% of her voters say they're firmly committed to her, compared to 65% of Sanders' who say the same for him. Clinton leads in every party of the state except Western Maryland, although it's closer in the Baltimore suburbs. 
In Connecticut, Sanders needs to win by 16 but instead he's down by 9:
A 66 – 25 percent lead among black likely Democratic primary voters and a wide margin among women Democrats propel former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to a 51 – 42 percent lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the independent Quinnipiac University Poll finds. Another 6 percent remain undecided and 18 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.
Polling out of Delaware and Rhode Island is scant, but there's no reason to believe that Hillary won't win easily in the former while keeping it reasonably close in the latter (considering her win in Massachusetts).

In short, demographics and polling are pointing to another big night for Clinton on April 26th in which she will quite possibly net even more delegates than she did in New York. After that, Sanders will have to sweep every remaining contest except D.C. by completely absurd margins. 

To pick the biggest and most obvious example, Bernie will probably need to win California by about 30 points after next Tuesday. However, he'll have to defy the state's demographics as well as every single poll in order to achieve even a very narrow victory. 

It's just not going to happen.

Hillary Rodham Clinton will be the Democratic nominee in 2016.


  1. It was over for him in Ohio, and while Rendell is saying he's probably still thinking he can win because of those crowds, that is not the case they are making.

    Rendell made the case for Clinton back in '08, but she had 3M more popular votes, and it didn't work, the party went with the rules, the number of delegates, and she and Obama had shared the super-delegates, Obama didn't have nearly all of them; Sanders hasn't even the other senator from Vermont.

    IMO he'll stay and stay negative (if he isn't worried about being known as as the man who tried to stop the most progressive and first girl president) to convince more voters that Democrats are as corrupt as the worst possible Republicans, and then make the case to Democrats that he's ruined our brand and best turn the party over to him, where he will bring on Rand revolutionary economic policies, and nationalize the health care system. Which is to my mind running on crazy, not just irresponsible.

    Die-hard Sanders supporters have been likened to Deadheads, following him from concert to concert, the angriest ones, who keep making themselves unpleasant to anyone who doesn't completely agree with Sanders, fueled by personal grievances, with not a small amount of misogyny.

    The big question is why it wasn't long ago called by the networks, why everyone has to bend over backwards to be generous to Sanders and his followers, why they must be protected from the truth.

    To my mind it isn't just for ratings, it's a manifestation of the new-age of innocence, mature women can be mocked and smeared for daring to be competent, while no one dares question the innocence of our most vituperative 'critics.'

    Will he continue running against the Democratic Party, being the coward who would rather pretend he hadn't any answers without a paper in front of him than admit his heath care nationalization guru, Enrique Diaz Alvarez, has spelled it out, and admit to his fringe untested economic theories?

    WIll he bring all that to the national discourse, quit dissembling, quit hiding those details, run in daylight?

    stay tuned

    1. i'm not gonna hold my breath until he develops some statesmanship.

    2. When it comes to the Sanders campaign, I'm hoping for the best but ready for the worst. For now, just keep working hard to wrap up the nomination. Eyes on the prize.

    3. it's been wrapped up, if she were a he the pundits would have said it. I thought maybe, when he left his group and went home on his own, but obviously not, Weaver is clear.

      She won't stray from the issues, not just because she's nice and is a stateswoman, and she has more powerful men to defeat than Sanders, but also because girls can't do that to our own, when we do we are castrating, like Barack could never be angry, she can never know her own superiority over peers, others can say she is, she can't. And they're still pretending she got ideas him, he moved her left, in his dreams.

      This is what we face, whenever we compete, we face the impossible standard, knowledgable but deferential, qualified but humble, the best - for a woman.

      for women this feels intolerable, i can't bear it, I faced it throughout my professional career, I always needed the protection of a man, always, any man could say what I said, and fine, me, off with her head.

      She can take it, I can't.