Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Hillary News & Views 4.6: Forward! to NY, Visiting the View, Feminists & Choice, Equality PA


Today’s Hillary News & Views begins with Clinton’s congratulatory tweet to Bernie Sanders after his victory in Wisconsin, with added commentary from Tom Watson:
Clinton is gracious in losing, but probably a bit relieved by the margin, too. She lost Wisconsin by a wider margin in 2008, proving once again that the Clinton coalition from that year has been augmented by African-American voters. That’s kept the delegate margins tighter than they otherwise would’ve been.

Washington Post reports:
The recipe he used is the recipe he’s used elsewhere: beat Clinton with white voters enough to offset her strength with black voters. He was aided by Wisconsin having a relatively small black population — a population that preliminary exit polls reported by CNN suggest gave Clinton 7 of every 10 votes. Clinton and Sanders appear to have tied with Democrats, but Sanders won 7 in 10 independents, a group that made up nearly 30 percent of the electorate. So: Sanders wins.
He was supposed to. Those demographics suggested that he would. After Super Tuesday, a night in which Hillary Clinton vastly expanded her delegate lead, FiveThirtyEight outlined the odds of a Sanders victory in each of the next eight states. In seven of the eight, the demographics and past primary results suggested, Sanders would win. He’s won six of the seven that have voted. In most cases, it seemed like he’d win by wide margins. He did.
Sanders, as we’ve repeated frequently and to the consternation of Sanders’s fans, simply can’t make up the delegate deficit against Hillary Clinton. We made this graph to that point last week. It takes a smaller win than Sanders’s in Wisconsin to make up the delegates he bit off tonight — but Clinton doesn’t really need to make those delegates up anyway. Her lead is very, very well padded.
Momentum feels important. It feels important to win states, just as it feels important to string together a number of singles and doubles in an inning even if you’re trailing by 11 runs. It feels like you’re getting somewhere. All of this feels like it’s offering more than it ever should have, that it’s positioning Bernie Sanders to be a candidate in a way that no one ever dreamed — perhaps including Sanders himself.
But here, in the hard math of the Democratic delegate process, in a series of contests where Clinton has still gotten millions more votes than Sanders — that momentum is mostly a mirage. It looks like water, shimmering there in the desert.
It’s not.
And the problem for Sanders is bigger than just delegates, especially as he makes the case that superdelegates should switch their allegiance to him.  (Side note: Yes, I know what Jeff Weaver said on CNN. He’s doing his job. I’m not going to pile on.)

FiveThirtyEight reports:
Sanders Has a Raw Vote Problem, Not Just a Delegate Problem
Most Sanders supporters are focused on whether their guy can close the lead Clinton has in pledged delegates between now and June. A narrow victory in Wisconsin tonight would be unlikely to put much of a dent in her current 220-delegate lead. But perhaps just as importantly, it wouldn’t put much of a dent in Clinton’s often-overlooked 2.5-million popular vote lead.
Sanders supporters hypothesize that Clinton’s 469-to-31 lead in superdelegates will vanish if their candidate can win a majority of pledged delegates and claim the “will of the people.” But thanks to his reliance on low-turnout caucus states like Idaho and Washington, Sanders has won just 41 percent of votes, even though he’s won 45 percent of pledged delegates.
Even in the very unlikely event that Sanders erases Clinton’s pledged delegate lead by June, Clinton would probably be able to persuade her superdelegates to stick with her by reminding them that she still won more actual votes than Sanders.
Narrowing her popular vote lead by 120k in what should be one of Sanders’ strongest primary states is not going to help him, as that will be erased by even narrow wins in the mid-Atlantic states.
Again, not going to pile on. Being a Clinton supporter in 2008 meant celebrating big wins in Ohio and Pennsylvania and Texas, only to find she fell further behind because they weren’t as big as they needed to be. It’s not a fun place to be.

Hillary Clinton visited The View yesterday, for a lengthy conversation that was pro-Sanders and anti-Trump.

Here’s the full clip:

And some highlights, via Gossip Cop:
Clinton, of course, was on the ABC talk show to talk about her campaign for president. But before she got a word out, the audience gave her a standing ovation and chanted “Hillary.” Clinton then noted that what she learned from her previous unsuccessful run for president to her current bid for the White House is to remain “as focused as possible on what I’ve done and what I will do.”
She then listed the three attributes she feels are necessary for being president. Clinton said they were “can you actually produce for people, can you keep us safe, how do you bring us together.” The Democratic presidential frontrunner then talked about Trump. “He’s insulted and demeaned everyone,” said Clinton, also noting that Trump began his campaign by saying, “All Mexican immigrants are rapists and criminals.” She then talked about Trump “going after Muslims and women.”
Clinton questioned, “What does he think is the role of someone running for president?” She added, “Everybody should be concerned because of the way he conducts himself.” Clinton continued, “I don’t think the vast majority of Americans want to reward that kind of behavior.”
On the other side of the spectrum, Clinton said her run against Bernie Sanders has also been a sparring contests, but the acrimony has been only over “where we stand on issues.” She also expressed that she’s “thrilled” by the campaigns, which have brought out younger people out to vote. Clinton felt their campaigns have been “good for the Democratic party and the country.”
Clinton was asked by one of the hosts if you can be feminist and pro-life.

Melissa McEwan writes about Clinton’s answer for Shakesville:
I expect that this is going to be subjected to a lot of mendacious misrepresentation, so I figured I'd do a quick post on it. Hillary Clinton appeared on The View and said that being personally pro-life isn't incompatible with feminism. You can already imagine how this is being spun.

Anyway, the clip is viewable here, and here is the transcript: "I respect the opinions and beliefs of every woman. The reason why being pro-choice is the right way to go is because it is a choice. And hopefully a choice that is rooted in the thoughtfulness and the care that women bring to this decision. So, of course you can be a feminist and be pro-life."

It's pretty clear to me, given that she straight-up says "being pro-choice is the right way to go," that she means it's eminently possible for feminists to be personally pro-life.

There are, naturally, legions of women, including many feminists, who are personally pro-life—meaning they could not envision getting an abortion themselves—and politically pro-choice—meaning they want abortion legal and accessible for any people who do need and/or want abortions.

Basically, Clinton is right: There's no reproductive choice any woman makes for herself that is inherently incompatible with feminism. It's when anyone starts trying to legislate or coerce other people's choices that it becomes incompatible with feminism. And decency.
Which is indeed why bring pro-choice is the right way to go.
Equality PA endorsed Clinton yesterday:
Over the last eight years under President Obama, the LGBT community has made historic gains. From the end of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, to the national victory of the freedom to marry, to federal guidance protecting LGBT people from discrimination in the workplace, our community has taken many steps forward.
However, though these gains were hard-won, there is still far more work to do, and there are candidates seeking our country’s highest office that would seek to repeal and eliminate the progress marked by the Obama administration.
We need a president who will fight for us—not only to prevent attacks on our hard-won gains, but also as a partner in advancing equality in the long run. Equality PA is proud to be supporting Hillary Clinton for these reasons and more. We’re with her—because she’s with us.
“The LGBT community has made tremendous strides in advancing equality and I have been proud to stand side by side with LGBT Americans as an ally in the fight to make sure their rights are recognized, affirmed, and defended,” said Hillary Clinton. “I’m so proud to have the endorsement of Equality Pennsylvania in my campaign because they have been on the front lines of the battle for LGBT equality in Pennsylvania for decades and as President I will continue the work of breaking down the barriers that hold too many Americans back.”

On the Issues:

Protection from Discrimination:
Hillary Clinton has called passage of the Equality Act, a comprehensive piece of nondiscrimination legislation pending in Congress, her “highest priority.” Her website says that in addition to supporting legislation, she will use her executive authority to expand protection from discrimination and “support efforts to clarify that sex discrimination includes discrimination on the basis of ‘gender identity’ and ‘sexual orientation.’”
LGBT Rights Abroad:
As Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton delivered a landmark speech in Geneva on International Human Rights Day in 2011 declaring “gay rights are human rights and human rights are gay rights,” echoing a speech she made defending women in China in 1995. Additionally, Sec. Clinton created the first ever Assistant Secretary of State for LGBT Affairs, worked with the UN to pass the first ever UN Resolution on the Human Rights of LGBT Persons, and launched the Global Equality Fund to support programs advancing LGBT equality around the globe.
In 2011, Secretary Clinton announced an international plan to create an AIDS-free generation, which included a commitment to an additional $150 million in U.S. funding by 2015. She has proposed capping out-of-pocket expenses for people living with HIV/AIDS, and expanding access to PrEP.
Transgender Rights:
As Secretary of State, Clinton made rules changes that allow transgender Americans to more easily change gender markers on their U.S. passports. She has called out violence against transgender women, and she laid out a plan to curb violence against the transgender community, including by improving the ways that government collects data about crimes committed against transgender people.
Broad Support:
Equality Pennsylvania joins several other LGBT groups supporting Hillary Clinton, including the Human Rights Campaign; Equality PAC, the political arm of the Congressional LGBT caucus; and, in Pennsylvania, the Liberty City LGBT Democratic Club of Philadelphia.

1 comment:

  1. Well said, Lysis. I, too, recall well what it was like to be on the other side in 2008.