Monday, April 25, 2016
Hillary Clinton Will Secure the Democratic Nomination Tomorrow
Yes, there are plenty of contests left on the calendar.
And yes, her competition might stay in the race until the last contest is over.
But April 26th will be the day Hillary Clinton fully secures the nomination for the Democratic Party in 2016...and everyone will know it, even Bernie Sanders.
It's all about the pledged delegates, where Hillary currently leads Bernie by an already-prohibitive 235...and she's getting ready to increase that margin quite bit.
Clinton won New York by 58%-42% last week, which had 247 pledged delegates at stake. But Pennsylvania and Maryland have a combined 284 pledged delegates, and here's what 538 has to say about her odds there:
has a chance of winning the Pennsylvania primary.
has a chance of winning the Maryland primary.
538 predicted that Hillary's win margin in New York would be 15 points...amazingly close to the final result. In Pennsylvania and Maryland, they are currently predicting 17 and 30 point margins respectively. Personally, I think the margins might end up being a little bigger in light of Clinton's post-NY momentum. Whatever the case, she's about to win a lot of delegates in just those two states.
Polling in Delaware is basically non-existent, but this seems about right to me:
Beyond that, Connecticut will likely be about a 5-10 point Clinton win and Rhode Island should be a squeaker in which the delegates are split.
So Hillary will undoubtedly gain a lot of delegates tomorrow and increase her lead to near 300. The only real suspense is whether or not she'll sweep all five states and shut Bernie out in a demoralizing repeat of Super Tuesday II. Whether or not that happens may be the difference between him carrying on in defeat or folding up early to unite the party.
Whatever the case, after tomorrow there shouldn't be any doubt among anyone anywhere about who the Democratic nominee will be.
Those cracks in the glass ceiling are growing deeper and louder every day, aren't they?
Posted by Scott Hopkins at 2:36 PM