Friday, April 8, 2016

Clinton Leads Sanders 56%-38% in New York

Start spreading the news...the end of the Democratic primary is near.

Clinton leads Sanders 56%-38% in New York, according to a new Emerson College poll. Don't worry about this opening line, however, as their last poll was clearly an outlier. This margin is about what we’d expect when looking at all the polls.
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has gained significant ground on Hillary Clinton in the upcoming New York primary, shaving off 30 points from the massive lead Clinton held in New York just three weeks ago. He now trails the former Secretary of State by 18 points (56% to 38%). In a March 17 ECPS poll, conducted in the days following Clinton’s decisive performance on Super Tuesday II, she was winning by 48 points (71% to 23%) among Democratic primary voters in New York.
Just to be crystal clear: Bernie did not gain thirty points in three weeks. This is the only poll showing such a wild, absurd swing. A 48-point win would be fantastic, of course, but an 18-point margin would be just as deadly to Bernie's remaining nomination chances.

Furthermore, there's some data in here that suggests Clinton's solid lead isn't going anywhere.
In the Democratic race, the Brooklyn-born Sanders still has work to do if he hopes to overtake Clinton, who represented New York in the U.S. Senate. Although Sanders picked up 6 points with African Americans and 23 points with Hispanics since the last ECPS poll, Clinton still has a better than 2-1 advantage with both groups. African Americans favor her 72% to 28%, and Hispanics lean her way 68% to 32%. She also leads Sanders 48% to 43% among white Democratic voters, a group that has tended to favor him.

Sanders has closed a big gender gap with both men and women, but Clinton still leads him 60% to 36% among women and 51% to 41% with men. His unflagging popularity with young voters gives him a 60% to 36% edge in the 18-34 age group, but in the other three age categories, Clinton enjoys a wide margin of support: 26 points (ages 35-54), 29 points (55-74) and 41 points (75+).

Although Clinton’s favorable rating with primary voters has dropped 13 points since mid-March, from 82% to 69%, her favorable/unfavorable numbers are still +40. Sanders’s rating of 67% to 26% (+41) has changed little. However, Clinton commands higher loyalty: 76% compared to 50% for Sanders.
To recap: strong support across various demographics, much higher loyalty, and a gender gap that may be getting even more extreme after the whole "unqualified" fiasco.

April 19th continues to look like a decisive day for Hillary Clinton thanks (appropriately) to her adopted home state.


  1. Yeah, that previous 48 point margin made zero sense. But I think Hillary will win NY by at least 20 points, helped in part by the Cuomo GOTV machine.

  2. I think her support there is more likely to be "harder". Any poll showing her over 50% in NY makes me happy. But be prepared: The right might commission a special "skewed poll" to raise questions in the last days.

    1. And this was before the whole Vatican fiasco! (see new post)

    2. Yes, but that could easily backfire and motivate Clinton supporters who feel NY is "in the back" and weren't planning on voting in the primary to turn out and make sure syrup-boy gets the thumping he so richly deserves in the Empire State.

      I think the Clinton campaign should pull a dirty trick of its own. It should pose as a Sanders support group and launch a Twitter/FB/social media campaign advising supporters to congregate at a particular location on voting day to receive free subway tokens to take them to their polling location in the Big Apple.

  3. The anti-Clinton (Bill & Hillary) campaign, is a 30 yr, hopelessly ongoing phenomenon, sponsored by the right-wing and enthusiastically promoted by media, 90% of which is anti-Clinton. There is only one way it can be slowed, and that is if "we" do something about it. Our embarrassment proves that the "destroy the Clinton campaign" has infected us as well, insofar as Clinton supporters are reluctant to reveal strong support against this absurd media-driven and republican antagonism, hoping and believing it will, somehow, take care of itself. Bigotry and hate never go away by themselves, they're far more likely to increase, if ignored.