Here's the bad news, Hillary fans: Bernie outperformed the polling average and won Wisconsin by 13.5%. ARG and Loras College polls were the most off (both showed Clinton winning) but no poll predicted a double-digit Sanders margin.
But here's the good news, Hillary fans: Bernie didn't do as well as he needed to and has fallen even further behind in the pledged delegate race.
Let's revisit Nate Silver's handy chart to see why:
Sanders needed to win by 16 points at a minimum in order to stay on track to beat Clinton in pledged delegates (as unlikely as that may be). So despite the solid win last night, his road to winning the nomination actually got rougher.Does this look feasible to you? Then you can say with a straight face Sanders has a chance. https://t.co/XNxWHQrEML pic.twitter.com/xfyJ0it3Fr— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 30, 2016
Considering that Hillary leads Bernie by well over 200 pledged delegates, ten delegates or so just won't make the kind of dent that he needs.Final Wisconsin delegate allocations from NBC News:— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) April 6, 2016
GOP: Cruz 36, Trump 6
Dem: Sanders 48, Clinton 38
To make up for this, he'll need a solid win over Clinton in her home state of New York, followed by an even bigger win in Pennsylvania (and other states) a week later. But with the first of these contests less than two weeks away, Sanders isn't leading in either of them.
Wisconsin also demonstrated that the demographics of the upcoming states still don't bode well for him:
CNN exit polling: @HillaryClinton winning African-American vote, 74% to 26% over @BernieSanders. #WIPrimary pic.twitter.com/aBFboFlwIT— ¡Gabe! Ortíz (@TUSK81) April 6, 2016
Yeah, New York just ain't happening for Bernie.Tomorrow's front page— New York Daily News (@NYDailyNews) April 6, 2016
Bernie's Sandy Hook shame - defends gunmakers against Newtown kin suit https://t.co/ZNSpQFQqxM pic.twitter.com/NEQOafWU0A
In less than two weeks, it might just be game over for Sanders 2016...as if it isn't already.
Congrats to @BernieSanders on winning Wisconsin. To all the voters and volunteers who poured your hearts into this campaign: Forward! -H— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) April 6, 2016
The math is on our side and good times are on the way...so hang in there and keep on fightin'!