Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Bernie Had a Good Night in Wisconsin...But It Wasn't Good Enough

Here's the bad news, Hillary fans: Bernie outperformed the polling average and won Wisconsin by 13.5%. ARG and Loras College polls were the most off (both showed Clinton winning) but no poll predicted a double-digit Sanders margin.

But here's the good news, Hillary fans: Bernie didn't do as well as he needed to and has fallen even further behind in the pledged delegate race.

Let's revisit Nate Silver's handy chart to see why:
Sanders needed to win by 16 points at a minimum in order to stay on track to beat Clinton in pledged delegates (as unlikely as that may be). So despite the solid win last night, his road to winning the nomination actually got rougher.
Considering that Hillary leads Bernie by well over 200 pledged delegates, ten delegates or so just won't make the kind of dent that he needs.

To make up for this, he'll need a solid win over Clinton in her home state of New York, followed by an even bigger win in Pennsylvania (and other states) a week later. But with the first of these contests less than two weeks away, Sanders isn't leading in either of them.

Wisconsin also demonstrated that the demographics of the upcoming states still don't bode well for him:

Then there's...

Yeah, New York just ain't happening for Bernie.

In less than two weeks, it might just be game over for Sanders if it isn't already.

The math is on our side and good times are on the hang in there and keep on fightin'!


  1. LOL at what Sanders needs in Guam. Don't think that's going to happen after Tim Robbins' ridiculous comment. Counting Guam's five superdelegates on top of its seven pledged delegates, Hillary might end with a net gain there nearly matching Sanders' 10 in WI.

    1. For the record: Guam ROCKS and Hillary as well as her supporters know this! :-)

  2. BTW, the polls are often less accurate in open primaries, because pollsters have a hard time figuring out how many non-Dems will vote on the Dem side. Bernie's margin of victory in WI was provided by non-Dems, who were 30 percent of the electorate.

    1. Yeah, and luckily the remaining calendar is chock full of big Democrat-only primaries!