Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Yikes.


A few things were learned tonight in Michigan and beyond...

1. Forget the polls from now until November. All of them. Even if the great Nate Silver himself says that Hillary has a 99+% chance of winning by a lot, like he said about Michigan, ignore them. Just keep pushing for victory and take nothing for granted. That's the most important thing.

2. Money means something. Sanders has been getting a ton of money and will get a lot more tonight, and that means he can continue to outspend her dramatically in order to try to create more upsets like we saw tonight. So donate. Now.

3. With Hillary's massive landslide in Mississippi, she will leave tonight with more delegates than she came in with...adding to a total amount that Sanders has little hope of catching up with. Or even coming close to catching up with. So she will win this nomination, and she'll do it with delegates. It's just that it might take a little longer.

4. In fact, while the Michigan delegates will likely be split....
5. In 2008, Clinton kept the race going by winning the Ohio and Texas primaries. Tonight, Sanders keeps the race going by barely winning Michigan, losing in a landslide in Mississippi, and falling further behind in delegates than Clinton ever fell against Obama that year. I wouldn't trade this situation with what happened then.

6. This feels like karmic payback for narrowly winning Massachusetts last week.

7. Open primaries suck, and we need to take that into account in the upcoming contests.

8. Florida is not an open primary...but Ohio is. Good news/bad news. Next Tuesday still looks good... but beware of this wild card.

9. I heard some reports today about Clinton voters switching over to vote in the Republican contest for Kasich (because they thought she had it in the bag) in order to stop Trump. This was...a very bad idea, as Clinton got edged out and Trump won big anyway. Good grief, people. No. Never again!

10. After all this, I need a drink! Not because Clinton is in danger of losing the nomination, but because this race will drag on longer than it needs to. And we really need to unite and beat the Republicans as soon as we can.

Next stop: another debate tomorrow. And hey, that should be fun!

10 comments:

  1. I know what you mean. Have already donated $25 more to the campaign and have considered not going to DailyKos for at least a week. Still, I would rather do my part to raise morale rather than lower it. Another money bomb campaign?

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    1. I'd still like to find out how we did in the last moneybomb before we do another one. I will do a donation post, however.

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  2. Same here. Will give as much as I can to her campaign and won't look back. I know Mrs. Clinton will double down. Her perseverance is amazing! Ditto your Dailykos comment but I am inclined not to return to Dailykos until after Mrs. Clinton is sworn in next January.

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    1. Yeah, it sucks over there right now. Hopefully after March 16th it will be a little better.

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  3. DailyKos is, quite simply, against Hillary. A FOX new poll, a day before the vote, showed Hillary 25 or so points over Sanders, a poll displayed in all it's falseness on REAL CLEAR Politics. Was it an erroneous poll? Now all of Hillary's enemies on the TV networks are blabbering about the "huge win" for Sanders, a win that amounted to 1.7% When Hillary won similarly narrow victories they didn't call them "huge" or "shocking," they called them "narrow," or "barely won," etc. The FOX Poll was intended to do what it sought to do. It gave Hillary such an immense apparent lead that undecided voters saw little to lose by choosing Sanders. MSNBC had voting results showing Sanders with a slight lead, before all the polls had closed. Consider the magnitude of this loss. A shift of votes of less than .8% and it would all have been talked about very differently. Sanders would not have quite the bragging rights over this "stunning" win. Hillary could have claimed the nomination more forcefully and would be able to concentrate on Trump. You can always argue that she could have spent more time in Michigan, but it doesn't change the treachery of the
    FOX poll. Once more, I say, that we must do something about the treachery against Hillary, we see in media and this dominant pollster source. No one will so much as say a thing about it.

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  4. I'm nervous now but also getting more and more livid. I like Bernie, but his surge has nothing to do with policy or positions. It has to do, primarily, with "he's not a Clinton." And he allows his surrogates to promulgate that crap. It's campaign built on bullying (and not totally unlike Trump's in that regard).

    Time to donate more to HRC.

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    1. Also, "he's not a woman" and "he's not a person of color."

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  5. Polling has been solid until now. Michigan polling errors could be an anomaly. Let's hope so. I agree, we should take nothing for granted.

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    1. I'm ignoring polling until at least next Wednesday.

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  6. Yes, ignore polling totally!

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