Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Democratic Predictions
Super Tuesday results will start arriving shortly, so it's time for some predictions. Here are mine:
Out of the 11 states voting today, Clinton will win Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia easily. According to Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com, her odds of winning all of them are greater than 99%...except Arkansas, which sits at 97%. But really, Arkansas should be sitting at 100%. More likely than not, all of these states will be called as soon as the polls close and don't be surprised to see some margins of victory similar that to what we saw in South Carolina.
Clinton will win Massachusetts more comfortably than many expect. The polls have broken in her favor there since Nevada, and the South Carolina result has accelerated her momentum across the map. Nate currently gives Clinton a 94% chance of victory with a margin of around 8 points. If this holds true, it's going to be a very, very bad night for Bernie.
Sanders will have a yuuuuuuge win in his home state of Vermont. And that's fine.
Here's where things get tricky, and where my prediction skills might just fall apart.
Clinton will win Oklahoma. Mr. Silver has been waffling on this one based on a recent Monmouth poll that has Bernie up by 5, but he now shows Hillary with a 51% chance of winning there. However, the Monmouth result looks like an outlier to me as every other poll since the beginning of the year shows Hillary winning by anywhere from 2 to 25 points. So Oklahoma also goes to Clinton, though another southern blowout seems unlikely here.
Finally, here goes: Clinton will win the Colorado and Minnesota caucuses. I know, I know...but hear me out. For one thing, let's keep in mind that there have already been two caucuses this year and Hillary won them both. Her 2016 team has shown that they are serious about winning these things, so no one should look to her 2008 caucus results for guidance here.
In terms of polling, I only see one Minnesota poll since the beginning of the year...but that one had Hillary leading by 34 points! A fluke? Possibly, but that margin is actually up from an earlier poll that had her up by 18. Knowing this, it seems odd to me that Andrea Mitchell called this state a "Sanders stronghold" this morning. He might win it, sure, but "stronghold"? I doubt it.
There is even less polling to go on in Colorado, where the only name brand poll I can find is a Quinnipiac result from November that showed Hillary leading Bernie two-to-one (55-27). Also, Clinton is winning with Hispanic voters across the country and that will certainly help her in Colorado.
In the end, it really comes down to whether or not the Clinton camp out-organizes the Sanders folks in these two states. And based on Iowa and Nevada, I'm going to give them the nod.
So here's my prediction: Clinton beats Sanders 10-1 tonight, effectively ending his campaign. But even if it ends up being 9-2, 8-3 or even 7-4...it will be a devastating night for Bernie that will put the nomination out of reach for him.
We will see you back here at 7pm ET for live results. In the meantime, submit your own predictions in the comments below!
Posted by Scott Hopkins at 3:07 PM