Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Hillary News & Views 3.15: Chicago, Delegates, Clinton Best for Ohio, Hot Mic, My Mea Culpa

By Lysis

Today’s Hillary News & Views begins with Clinton’s visit to Chicago.
ABC 7 reports:
The Illinois primary is Tuesday, March 15, and presidential candidates are in town working to win over Illinois voters. The polls will be open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton attended several events in Chicago Monday, while Bernie Sanders has a late-night rally planned at Roosevelt University.
A week ago, the Clinton campaign had Illinois - the candidate's home state - safely in its win column. But after Sanders' big win in Michigan last week, Clinton is taking nothing for granted.
"I am very excited about being back in Chicago," Clinton said this morning, where she was cheered by hundreds at the Plumbers Union Hall on the Near West Side - her second visit to the area since last Thursday.
Earlier, the former Secretary of State appeared at a Pilsen not-for-profit where she promised to work for immigration reform. On the South Side, she made a 20-minute stop at the Kids Off the Block memorial to children killed in gun violence in the Roseland neighborhood.
"Every mother you see here works so hard to protect her child, and yet we allow this epidemic of gun violence to stalk our streets, our playgrounds," Clinton said.
The former first lady's final stop was at the bakery workers' union hall at 79th and Kedzie, opposite the Nabisco plant. Worker Hilda Munoz said she hopes a President Hillary Clinton could help do something to stop her employer from moving 600 jobs to Mexico.
"I just asked her if she could help us out, if she could help us keep our jobs in Chicago. And she said she was with the union in there, and she said 'Absolutely, I'm here to help you guys out.' Let's hope it's true," Munoz said.
Fox 32 Chicago reports:
Determined to make the plague of gun violence and poverty in urban America a top priority in the 2016 Presidential campaign, Rev. Jesse Jackson on Monday took Democratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, to “a wall of death” – a memorial to murdered children fashioned out of paving stones and sorrow on Chicago’s far South Side.
Joined by nearly a dozen mothers who have lost children to gun violence, Rev. Jackson, founder and president of the Rainbow PUSH Coalition, said he asked Mrs. Clinton to visit the memorial at 117th Street and South Michigan Avenue because “we thought it would be fitting for [her] to put real focus on the zone of crisis in Chicago.”
he memorial – 501 paving stones, each with the name of a murdered child printed in black – was built by a neighborhood peace and child advocate, Diane Latiker, and her family nine years ago. Since then, the memorial has been rebuild a dozen times.
“We’re 531 stones behind,” Ms. Latiker said, as Mrs. Clinton, the former Secretary of State, stood at her side, clutching a dozen white roses in tribute to the murdered children and their parents.
“If you take nothing else from being here,” Ms. Latiker said, looking directly at Mrs. Clinton, “this is not America. And nobody wants to talk about it because it’s sticky. But blood is sticky.” 
Visibly moved by the memorial, Mrs. Clinton said, “We have to do many things. But the first and most important of any nation is to protect and keep safe our children” yet despite the heroic efforts of the mothers gathered around her “we allow this epidemic of gun violence to stalk our streets, our playgrounds, our buses, our churches.”
“It is profoundly wrong,” Mrs. Clinton said “to see how many children’s lives are ended by senseless, brutal gun violence.”
She said she had spent much of her professional life speaking out and standing up to the gun lobby and vowed, if elected president, to increase her efforts. She added that “Rev. Jackson is also right: we need things to say yes to.”
“We need opportunities,” she said. “We need more jobs. We need good teachers and schools for every child regardless of what zip code that child lives in.”
Her voice catching, Mrs. Clinton looked from mother to mother, the sisters of sorrow. “I pledge to you in front of this heartbreaking memorial that as a mother and a grandmother and as a president, if I’m so fortunate to be president, I will work every day to save and protect the lives of our children. I will work every day to provide more opportunities and tear down the barriers that stand in the way of people having the chance to fulfill their potential.”

Clinton’s lead in the delegate race may expand quite a bit today, regardless of how many states she wins.
FiveThirtyEight reports:
Bernie Sanders’s surprise win in Michigan last week upended the Democratic presidential primary. Or not — Hillary Clinton still has a big lead in pledged delegates. Here’s the big question for Democrats right now: Was Michigan a fluke? If so, Clinton will easily win Ohio on Tuesday, along with Florida and North Carolina. If not, Sanders could win the Buckeye State. Illinois and Missouri, meanwhile, look to be more competitive regardless of what really happened in Michigan.
Florida could be Clinton’s best state on Tuesday. Clinton has done disproportionately well with black voters and older voters this year, and Florida is diverse (just 66 percent of Democratic voters were white in the 2008 primary, and that number will probably be lower this year) and old (28 percent of Democratic primary voters in 2008 were 65 or older). It’ll also be interesting to see how Sanders performs with Latino voters, who seem to have supported Clinton thus far, but the evidence is mixed. Either way, no poll in March has shown Clinton ahead by fewer than 20 percentage points. Unless we have a Michigan-level polling miss, Clinton is going to well exceed her delegate target in Florida. If some of the polls giving her a larger lead in the state are correct, she’ll probably end the day leading Sanders by more than 300 pledged delegates. That would make her pretty much impossible to catch in the race overall.
Washington Post reports:
Whether or not Clinton wins Ohio doesn't really matter.
It's important to remember that the Democrats, unlike the Republicans, don't allocate delegates on a winner-take-all basis. When Donald Trump won South Carolina with a plurality of the vote, he got all of the state's 50 delegates, a total that right now constitutes more than half of his lead. There are no states like that on the Democratic side. There are some variations in how the states divvy up their delegates, but they're proportionally distributed from now until the primary is over.
Let's say that Clinton and Sanders tie in Ohio, Missouri and Illinois and she wins by a 20 points in Florida and North Carolina. Per some back-of-the-envelope math, Clinton would get about 380 delegates to Sanders's 315 -- increasing her lead by about 60 delegates. Even if Sanders wins Illinois, Missouri and Ohio, Clinton will still net more delegates if she wins Florida and North Carolina big.
If delegates split evenly on Tuesday, Sanders needs more than 55 percent of all of the rest of the delegates to tie Clinton.
It's also worth noting that Sanders has been strongly helped by the presence of independent voters in the Democratic contests so far. In Michigan, for example, nearly a fifth of the vote was independents voting for Sanders (he won 71 percent among the 27 percent of the electorate that was independent) according to exit polls -- more than enough to have swung the race to Clinton had the primary not been open to independents.
Even with his support from independents, Sanders is at risk of continuing to fall further behind in the delegate count. Which is exactly why the two parties' nomination contests look very different over the long term, even though they're close right now: Clinton's lead is much less vulnerable than Donald Trump's.
Here’s a graphic illustrating Clinton’s delegate lead, compared to the 2008 race:

A graphic illustrating the dramatic differences between the delegate races in 2008 and 2016.
Rep. Tim Ryan, writing for U.S. News & World Report,  makes the case that Clinton is best for Ohio manufacturing:
As the Democratic primaries move from Michigan to Ohio, manufacturing is finally having its turn in the spotlight. That's important. Because while tax credits, labor negotiations and trade deals might go unnoticed by much of America, they send ever expanding ripples through the U.S. economy. And for many hardworking Ohioans, the results mean the difference between a good-paying job and an unemployment check.
On average, manufacturing jobs pay about $25 per hour. More than670,000 manufacturing workers in Ohio earn a collective annual payroll of $37 billion, while contributing to nearly a fifth of the state GDP. Manufacturing keeps Ohio running, along with much of America.
This Tuesday, voters can shape the direction of this crucial sector of our economy. While President Barack Obama expanded American manufacturing, helping to create 900,000 new jobs, a Republican successor would quickly reverse this hard-fought progress. Only one candidate can make sure our factories here in Ohio are strong and has a plan to grow manufacturing jobs. And that's why I'm proud to support Hillary Clinton for president.
linton has a comprehensive plan, the "new bargain," as she calls it, to make sure American manufacturing is here to stay. This plan includes tax credits that reward firms for staying put and punishes the bad actors with exit taxes for moving overseas. Or if a boss decides to take a page from China and denies workers their rights, unions can stand up for their members. Finally, her plan ensures that companies treat their employees as long-term investments, not short-term costs, encouraging profit sharing and skill building. In my 14 years in Congress I have never seen such a comprehensive and detailed game plan for reviving manufacturing in the U.S.
That means more jobs – and better jobs – in cities large and small, from Akron to Youngstown.
Clinton rejected the Central America Free Trade Agreement andopposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Unlike Sanders, however, the former secretary of state rightly believes that fair trade – the kind that keeps our country safe while bringing in jobs – creates needed customers for U.S. products. Closed borders might keep imports at bay, but they also keep exports on shelves. A Clinton administration can boost demand for Americans products overseas, and, in turn, create more jobs here at home.
Over the course of her career, Clinton has represented industrial cities and manufacturing workers in upstate New York and promoted U.S. industry across the globe. More than any other candidate, Hillary Clinton can and will drive policies that grow new manufacturing jobs that provide opportunities for the next generation. Because of this, come Tuesday, she has my proud and complete support.
Clinton got caught on a hot mic, and made a very funny joke at Chris Christie’s expense, so that’s the headline. But she also chastised Matthews and the media for showcasing Trump.
Washington Post reports:
It isn't often that Hillary Clinton lets her guard down about what she really thinks about the Republican presidential race.
But during a commercial break while taping an MSNBC town hall on Monday, Clinton and host Chris Matthews chatted it up about the state of the race.
Clinton scolded the media for its constant coverage of the GOP front-runner Donald Trump, speculated about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's political future and his motivations for endorsing Donald Trump.
"You guys can’t stop covering him," Clinton told Matthews. "He is a dangerous presence."
"It’s just like candy by the bushel."
Matthews followed up by acknowledging that his network has "progressive leanings, obviously."
"But nobody can tell what people want to watch," he said. 
"People must think they want to watch him," Clinton replied.
"They laugh at him," said Matthews.
The subject quickly turned to Christie, and Clinton wondered: "Why did he support him?"
Matthews explained that Christie and others who support Trump "want a future" politically.
"Did he have a debt?" Clinton mused.
Clinton continue to tout her plan for coal country, correcting the record on GOP distortions along the way.
CNN reports:
Brian Fallon, Clinton's press secretary, accused Republicans of trying to "twist Hillary Clinton's words" to suggest she showed a disregard for coal workers and their livelihoods.
    "Obviously she was making the exact opposite point: that we have to take proactive steps to make sure coal workers, their families and their communities get not just the benefits they've earned, but also the future they deserve," said Fallon.
    Clinton said Sunday in Columbus, Ohio, that her "clean, renewable energy" plan was going to "put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business."
    Clinton added that she was going to "make clear that we don't want to forget these people" and touted her plan to spend federal dollars on rebuilding coal country.
    The state's Southeastern region is reliant on coal and Clinton's campaign is hoping that her plan to spend heavily in those areas will sway them he way. Clinton performed well in Virginia's Western coal counties earlier this month.
    "I firmly believe that if you spent your life keeping the lights on for our country, we can't leave you in the dark," Clinton said in a statement that touted her coal plan on Monday.
    "We need to support our coal miners, their families, and their communities," Clinton added. "Coal will remain a part of the energy mix for years to come, and we have a shared responsibility to ensure that coal communities receive the benefits they have earned -- and can build the future they deserve."
    Finally, a personal note.
    During yesterday’s HNV comment thread, I made a remark that was interpreted as being dismissive of legitimate concerns over Clinton’s HIV/AIDS remarks last week. I want to apologize for that.
    My intent was to differentiate between the legions of progressive activists who tend to be disappeared by progressives, and those using Clinton’s comments as primary war ammunition. The comment can be read as dismissing the former along with the latter, which was the opposite of what I intended to communicate.
    I apologize for this, and I will be more careful with my words in the future. — Lysis