Friday, March 18, 2016

Clinton Leads Sanders by Almost Fifty Points in New York State


In yesterday's post about the next phase of Democratic contests, I wrote:
After these eight states is New York on April 19th, a closed primary that Clinton will probably win by at least 20 points. That may well be Bernie's last stand, but if it's not, the following week's contests in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware will be.
Well it turns out that "at least 20 points" may have been far too conservative, and I'm doubling down on the idea that New York will be Bernie's last stand after seeing this new poll:
Buoyed by a string of decisive primary wins this past Tuesday, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump hold a commanding lead in New York State, where a victory in the April 19 primary could effectively seal the presidential nomination for both candidates. ...
In the Democratic primary, Clinton is ahead of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders by 48 points, taking 71% of the vote to Sanders’s 23%. The former Secretary of State holds a massive advantage in key demographic groups, including men (66% to 29%), women (73% to 20%), African Americans (72% to 22%) and Hispanics (85% to 8%). Younger voters, ages 18-34, favor Sanders, but by a slimmer margin (53% to 40%) than in many primary states. Among all other age groups, Clinton dominates, leading by 45 points (ages 35-54), 50 points (ages 55-74), and 67 points (ages 75+). 
Clinton and Sanders have similar favorability numbers with likely Democratic primary voters. Her favorable/unfavorable ratio is 82%/15% (+67); his is 63%/26% (+37). However Clinton garners far more loyalty: 85% of those who view her favorably plan to vote for her in the primary, while only 31% who have a favorable view of Sanders intend to vote for him.
Just a reminder: Hillary was an extraordinarily popular New York senator who won reelection in 2006 with a crushing landslide, and the Clintons have been beloved residents since 2001. So I'm not sure why anyone should expect her to even come close to losing there. Depending on how well Bernie does in the upcoming caucus states, it's even possible that she could officially clinch the nomination with a big win in her home state...and wouldn't that be perfect?

In other good but unsurprising news from the poll, Clinton trumps Trump by an impressive 19 points there. New York is his home too, but that doesn't mean they have to like him.

8 comments:

  1. I think his heart knows it's over, but his head won't let him accept it: He seems more stressed and angry than ever. I think he should take a day off, perhaps in Colorado. Then maybe somebody could get him to try an edible, and talk him down a little.

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  2. I tried to go back to Kos for some General Election insights, but the place is still rank with sour grapes. It's not safe there yet. ;0

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  3. Bernie is drawing 5 times larger crowds all across the country. Why do you folks keep trying to repeat lies to make them believable? HRC is Toast!

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    1. The next President of the United States...Hillary Clinton. Far from being TOAST..

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    2. That's because Clinton supporters have jobs and don't have the time to attend rallies. They're busy being middle class. They went to school, took on debt, pushed through efficiently, majored in things that have economic value after graduation, paid off their student loans, bought houses, raised families, educated well-adjusted children similarly motivated by the example set by their hard working parents. Know what I mean?

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  4. Well Dean, why is it that you're here on the territory of your competition, come to tell us that your candidate is doing well? If it was true, wouldn't it be obvious?
    I notice that when Sanders wins by a razor thin margin, media make it out to be the win of the century, a cataclysmic, earth-shaking, mind-boggling event. But when Hillary wins by a small margin, it's a "tie," "she barely won," "she squeaked by. I'll give you this: he's winning in "nearly" all the small States, especially if they're caucus States. Your candidate now has the cash to be a constant drag on Hillary. He might be able to defeat her, and give the vote to the republicans. That'll teach her. Secretly, Sanders isn't a democrat anyway, why should he care.

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    1. He doesn't care. He's a far left ideologue who doesn't see any difference between Democrats and Republicans. If you don't agree with his ideology, you count for nothing. He also has a profound sense of entitlement to the nomination, since he believes his ideas are the only ones worth implementing. He's sold out his 'principles' by joining the Democrats as it's the only viable way he can have a shot at the Presidency. In doing this he leeches off the hard work of others. He hasn't the integrity to uphold his end of the bargain, using the Dems connections, media exposure, resources, connections & especially money, to support the down ticket candidates. His hard core supporters are a minority of Democrats, most having only joined for the opportunity to vote for Sanders & now demand the Dems change their rules to suit their candidate, using abuse & threats to get their own way. This is a totalitarian high-jacking of the Dems by a fringe group that does not represent the views of the majority of Americans. He sanctimoniously undermines Hillary Clinton at every turn, who's worked hard for the Democrats for most of her adult life, after promising to run a clean contest. This is his main political strategy - discredit your opponent - straight out of the GOP political playbook. People are withdrawing from social media in droves to avoid having to deal with the Bern's supporters, and getting drawn into dead end arguments with brick walls. This is Bernie's 'revolution'.

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