Monday, February 8, 2016

Polls Be Damned...Hillary is Playing to Win in New Hampshire

Do you believe in miracles?

Yes, the polls say Sanders is definitely leading Clinton in New Hampshire by a lot. I certainly don't doubt that Bernie is very strong in his neighboring state and is clearly favored to win. Hell, even Nate Silver says that there's a more than 99% chance that he will (and who am I to doubt Nate?).

And yet...

Hillary is definitely not acting like someone who is headed for a defeat, and the over-the-top energy and enthusiasm I'm seeing for her there in the last several days is exactly what you'd expect for a winning campaign.

For instance, did you see this incredibly fired-up speech from last Friday?

Or this event the next day, with Senator Al Franken giving one of the most convincing arguments for Hillary that I've ever heard?

Everyone was writing her off in 2008 after she got crushed in Iowa and was trailing very badly in the polls leading up to New Hampshire. And still, she rose...outperforming the polls by double digits and winning a clear victory. It remains one of the most amazing political comebacks I've ever seen.

Can she do it again? I really don't know. But here's what it would require: a solid last-minute break in her favor in the polls (the best result has her down by seven right now), an astonishing get-out-the-vote operation that brings out the core Democratic base in force, and some of that same magical electoral pixie dust that brought us the miracle of 2008.

But even if she does come up short on Tuesday, one huge difference about 2016 is that Hillary doesn't need a win in New Hampshire. Honestly, I'm pretty sure the Clinton campaign would be thrilled with a single-digit loss, because she's well on track to absolutely sweep up in the states that follow.

That said...another crazy, surreal, what-the-freaking-hell win in New Hampshire would be really interesting, wouldn't it?


  1. Immmediately after Iowa, I was wondering if Hillary would skip NH. But i can see now why she'd never do that. What message would that send to all the staffers and volunteers in NH who've worked their butts off? Besides, if she can make Bernie spend his money (he's already outspending her 3-1 in TV ads) in a state he should win going away (home-field advantage, etc.), I'm all for that.

    1. Bottom line: She's not giving up on New Hampshire, and neither should we!

  2. Thanks for this. You have the right approach. Let's focus on who she is and getting out the vote from those who love her!