Sunday, February 28, 2016

Hillary News & Views 2.28: South Carolina Victory Edition

Today’s Hillary News & Views begins with Clinton’s victory speech in South Carolina.

Here's the transcript:
Thank you so much South Carolina! Thank you so much, from one end of this state to another, I am so greatly appreciative, because today you sent a message: in America, when we stand together, there is no barrier too big to break.
We’ve now gone through four early states, and I want to congratulate Senator Sanders on running a great race. And tomorrow, this campaign goes national.
We are going to compete for every vote in every state. We are not taking anything, and we’re not taking anyone for granted.
I want to thank all the local leaders, legislators, mayors, pastors, organizers, volunteers who have worked their hearts out for this campaign. I thank all of our great South Carolina friends going back so many years. I especially want to thank two of your former great Democratic governors, Dick Riley and Jim Hodges.
And I especially want to thank your champion—your statesman—in Congress, Jim Clyburn. I am so looking forward to working with the congressman to make the changes and continue the progress that we can build on the record and accomplishments of President Obama.
And to the almost 850,000 people who have contributed what they could, most giving less than $100, I thank each and every one of you. Now, every day since Iowa, more and more of you have stepped up. Today, grassroots donors are powering this campaign.
And to the millions of people watching across our country, please join us by making a donation to And here’s why: because together, we can break down all the barriers holding our families and our country back; we can build ladders of opportunity and empowerment so every single American can have that chance to live up to his or her God-given potential. And then, and only then, can America live up to its full potential, too.
This campaign, and this victory tonight, is for the parents and teachers in rural South Carolina. They showed me crumbling classrooms and communities too long neglected. We’re going to work together to give our children the education they need and deserve here in South Carolina and across America.
This campaign and our victory is for the entrepreneur who told me more dreams die in the parking lots of banks than anywhere else. And that’s especially true for women and people of color. So we’re going to work together to give people—particularly young people—the tools you need to start that small business you’ve been dreaming of.
And this campaign and our victory is for the reverend—a presiding elder of the AME Church—who looked at all the violence and division in our country and asked me the other night, ‘How? How are we ever going to strengthen the bonds of family and community again?’
Well, we’re going to start by working together with more love and kindness in our hearts and more respect for each other, even when we disagree.
Despite what you hear, we don’t need to make America great again: America has never stopped being great. But we do need to make America whole again. Instead of building walls, we need to be tearing down barriers. We need to show by everything we do that we really are in this together.
Today, too many people at the top, too many corporations have forgotten this basic truth about what makes America great. Prescription drug companies that increase the price of drugs for no reason [other] than greed and then double and triple bills to folks overnight; corporations that use shell games to shift their headquarters overseas for no other reason than to avoid paying their fair share of taxes; companies like Johnson Controls, an auto parts company in Wisconsin, that we taxpayers helped to save with the auto rescue in 2008.
Now, let there be no doubt in any board room or executive suite across this country: if you cheat your employees, exploit your customers, pollute our environment, or rip off the taxpayers, we will hold you accountable. If you turn your back on America, you’ll pay a price. But, if you do the right thing, if you invest in your workers and in your country’s future, then we will stand with you.
Now, together, we have to break down all the barriers. Not just some. It’s important that Wall Street never threaten Main Street again. No bank can be too big to fail and no executive too powerful to jail.
But, America isn’t a single issue country, my friends. We need more than a plan for the biggest banks. The middle class needs a raise! And we need more good jobs! Jobs that pay well and can’t be outsourced. Jobs that provide dignity and a path to a brighter future. And we can create those good jobs by building on the progress we’ve made under President Obama. So let’s make new investments in manufacturing and small business, in scientific research, in clean energy, enough clean energy to power every home in America. And, don’t let anybody tell you we can’t make things in America: I know we can, and I know we will.
Let’s break down the barriers that keep people on the sidelines of our economy; especially women. Don’t you think we’ve waited long enough for quality affordable child care and paid family leave? Don’t you think it’s time for equal pay for equal work?
And let’s break down the barriers that stop our children from getting the best possible start in life. We need to support great teachers and great schools in every zip code.
Let’s break down the barriers holding back our young people, especially the student debt that makes it hard to imagine ever living the life you want.
And we are going to give special support to our historically black colleges and universities, which play a vital role in this state and across our country.
Now, breaking down all the barriers means we also have to face the reality of systemic racism that more than a half a century after Rosa Parks sat, and Dr. King marched, and John Lewis bled, still plays a significant role in determining who gets ahead in America and who gets left behind. We have to invest in communities of color. Reform our broken criminal justice and immigration system. We have to guarantee opportunity, dignity, and justice for every American.
And tonight I want to pay tribute to five extraordinary women who criss-crossed this state with me and for me. Five mothers, brought together by tragedy.
Sybrina Fulton, mother of Trayvon Martin, shot and killed in Florida just for walking down the street.
Lucy Mcbath, mother of Jordan Davis, shot and killed by someone who thought he was playing his music too loud in his car.
Maria Hamilton, mother of Dontre, shot and killed by police in Milwaukee.
Gwen Carr, mother of Eric Garner, choked to death after being stopped for selling loose cigarettes on the street.
And Geneva Reed-Veal, mother of Sandra Bland, who died in police custody in Texas.
They all lost children, which is almost unimaginable. Yet they have not been broken or embittered. Instead, they have channeled their sorrow into a strategy and their mourning into a movement. And they are reminding us of something deep and powerful in the American spirit.
By now, we all know the story of Flint, Michigan. How a city’s children were poisoned by toxic water because their governor wanted to save a little money. But there’s another side to the story in Flint. It’s a story of a community that’s been knocked down but refused to be knocked out. It’s hundreds of union plumbers coming from across the country to help install new water fixtures. It’s students raising funds for water deliveries and showing up in Flint to distribute supplies. It’s the United Auto Workers and General Motors donating millions of dollars.
We know there are many other Flints out there. Communities that have been left out and left behind. But for every problem we face anywhere in America, someone somewhere is working to solve it. Our country was built by people who had each other’s backs; who understood we all have to do our part, and that at our best we all rise together.
Imagine what we can all build together, when each and every American has the chance to live up to his or her potential.
Imagine a tomorrow where no child grows up in the shadow of discrimination or under the specter of deportation.
Imagine a tomorrow where every parent can find a good job, and every grandparent can enjoy a secure retirement.
Imagine a tomorrow where hard work is honored, where families are supported, and where communities are strong; when we trust and respect each other despite all that divides us.
So, please. Join us in this campaign for our country’s future. Go to, or text JOIN to 47246, right now.
You know, on one of my first trips to South Carolina during this campaign, I stopped by a bakery here in Columbia. I was saying hello everybody; I went over to say hello to a man reading a book in the corner. Turned out he was a minister. And the book was a Bible. He was studying I Corinthians 13, which happens to be one of my favorite passages. “Love never fails,” it tells us. “Love bears all things, believes all things, hopes all things, endures all things.”
These are words to live by not only for ourselves but also for our country. I know it sometimes seems a little odd for someone running for president, these days, in this time, to say we need more loving kindness in America. But I’m telling you, from the bottom up my heart, we do. We do.
We have so much to look forward to. There is no doubt in my mind that America’s best years can be ahead of us. We have got to believe that! We’ve got to work for that! We have to stand with each other, we have to hold each other up, lift each other up! Move together into the future that we will make! Thank yo

On to the analysis.

FiveThirtyEight reports:
In South Carolina today, Hillary Clinton scored her biggest victory yet in the Democratic presidential primary. She beat Bernie Sanders by what looks to be nearly 50 percentage points thanks to overwhelming support from African-Americans. As the race heads into Super Tuesday, Clinton has clear momentum: She has big leads in many of the 12 contests that will take place, according to the polls.
According to the South Carolina exit poll, Sanders lost black voters 14 percent to 86 percent. That doomed him in a contest in which 61 percent of voters were black. If white voters were more supportive of his candidacy, Sanders might have been able to keep the race closer. But they split 54 percent for Clinton to 46 percent for Sanders. The split makes the results among white voters in New Hampshire look more like an outlier compared with South Carolina, Iowa and Nevada. Maybe the Vermont senator had more of a next-door-neighbor advantage in New Hampshire than we initially thought.
If you look at my colleague Nate Silver’s estimates of how Sanders would do in each caucus or primary if the race were tied nationally (Sanders needs to beat these targets to have a shot at the nomination), we see that Sanders did 19 percentage points worse than the benchmark in Iowa, 10 percentage points worse in New Hampshire and 5 percentage points worse in Nevada. That is, Sanders did not hit the target in any of those contests, but he got closer to it as time went on. In South Carolina, it looks like Sanders will run nearly 30 percentage points worse than we would expect given a tie nationally, suggesting that the race has moved in Clinton’s direction since Nevada.
Politico reports:

The Trump Effect?

Call Mexicans rapists, suggest you’ll support judges who roll back civil rights laws (while saying super sensitive stuff like “the African-Americans love me”), spend years demanding to see the first black president’s already-produced birth certificate and allegedly forged college records – oh, and retweet white supremacists on Twitter – and guess what?
Overall turnout was way down in South Carolina from the high stakes Obama-vs.-Clinton primary in 2008 -- in part because polls have been predicting a Clinton landslide for weeks and Democratic turnout has been lagging in a less-than-scintillating Clinton-Sanders contest all over the country.
But a record percentage of black voters in South Carolina turned out on Saturday – 62 percent of the Democratic electorate. That might be a function of white voters sitting it out - but recent polls suggest that black and Hispanic voters feel under siege and are more energized this year than in the past – and Clinton has a decisive advantage with both groups.
Clinton’s strategy increasingly involves looking past Sanders to the bellicose developer-turned-reality TV star. “Despite what you hear, we don't need to make America great again,” she said, mocking Trump’s campaign slogan. “America has never stopped being great. But we do need to make America whole again."
Vox reports:
Clinton did best among poor voters in South Carolina, taking 82 percent of those who earn under $30,000 on her way to a 37 point victory, according to exit polling by The New York Times.
Here are the results by income, according to The Times:
  • Among voters earning under $30,000: Clinton beat Sanders 82-18.
  • Among voters earning $30,000-$50,000: Clinton beat Sanders 71-29.
  • Among voters earning $50,000-$100,000: Clinton beat Sanders 66-33.
  • Among voters earning over $100,000: Clinton beat Sanders 70-30.
Of course, this discrepancy is largely driven by Clinton's huge 87 to 13 point margin of victory over black voters. But that's the point — outside of states like Iowa and New Hampshire, many low-income and working-class voters aren't white. Unless Sanders is able to win working class voters beyond the whitest electorates in the country, his revolution may be over almost as soon as it started.
Yahoo! News reports:
Clinton’s presence in South Carolina began long before that day. Bill Clinton won the Palmetto State primaries in 1992 and 1996, which allowed Hillary Clinton to build relationships in the state and get to know its politics and leading personages. In fact, Clinton’s ties in the state predate her husband’s presidential bid. Clay Middleton, a native South Carolinian who served as state director of Clinton’s campaign, noted she first came into the state during the 1970s while working as a young lawyer with the Children’s Defense Fund. And as first lady of Arkansas, Clinton co-chaired a task force on infant mortality with former South Carolina Gov. Richard Riley.
“She’s been working in and with South Carolinians since the ’70s, but every decade since then, she’s been in and out of the state working with people,” Middleton said. “She has deep roots here, and it has blossomed over the years.”
In recent weeks, Clinton has begun discussing the need to comprehensively address “systemic racism” by toppling economic and institutional “barriers.” Clinton has also campaigned with African-American mothers who lost their children to incidents of alleged police brutality and racial profiling while vowing to take on these issues. Her campaign has said some of the new elements of Clinton’s platform came after months of conversations with these so-called “Mothers of the Movement.”
Bakari Sellers, a Democratic former member of the state legislature who mounted an unsuccessful gubernatorial campaign in 2014, noted Clinton “didn’t have” these messages as part of her platform in 2008.
Sanders’ past activism wasn’t enough to win voters in South Carolina, said Sellers, whose father, Cleveland Sellers, helped lead the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee.
“Your talking point to the black community can’t be, you know, ‘I marched with Dr. King.’ … That’s cool. My dad made cheese sandwiches at the March on Washington. What else? Tell me more,” Sellers said. “Like, you have a picture of getting arrested. I thank you so much for your efforts in Chicago, but I mean, all I’ve got to do is go down the street to find a civil rights hero in South Carolina.”
This is a bit older, but it’s worth noting that Sanders did not concede South Carolina.

Bloomberg Politics reports:
Bernie Sanders has built a bigger operation in South Carolina than he has had in any other state thus far in the Democratic presidential primary as he tries to close in on front-runner Hillary Clinton in the last contest ahead of Super Tuesday.
Sanders has about 200 paid staffers working in South Carolina, the campaign said, and has spent about $1 million on ads there in the past 30 days, according to Kantar Media's CMAG, which tracks political ad spending. He's making progress. Sanders trailed Clinton by nearly 50 percentage points in December, according to a RealClear Politics polling average. He's slashed the gap in half, but still trails by a yawning 24 percentage points as of last week.
Sanders started advertising in the state in mid-January, according to data from Kantar Media's CMAG, which estimates that Sanders has spent more than $1 million on broadcast outlets to the state. It hired its first paid staffers last August, and has disclosed spending $489,000 on campaign workers in the state through the end of January, according to its disclosures filed with the Federal Election Commission. In Iowa, the nation's first nominating contest, the campaign had 133 paid staffers. According to Aneesa McMillan, a campaign spokeswoman, the effort is being aided by thousands of volunteers from South Carolina and other parts of the country.
"What I'm seeing on the ground here from the Sanders camp reminds me of what Obama did in '08," Dick Harpootlian, a former state Democratic Party chair who has endorsed Sanders, said on Bloomberg's With All Due Respect. That year, Clinton went from a 13-point lead in November polls to a 29-point loss on Election Day. Harpootlian predicted Sanders would cut Clinton's margin of victory to single digits.
Sanders, fueled by an army of online donors giving as little as $5, outraised Clinton’s campaign for the first time in January, $21.3 million to $14.9 million. Yet Sanders has spent more than $80 million since his campaign began last year, $14.4 million of which has been on payroll. At the end of January, he had $14.7 million in the bank, less than half of Clinton's $32.9 million cash on hand.
Finally, from Daily News Bin:
If you’ve only followed the 2016 Presidential election on cable news, you might be forgiven for thinking that Hillary Clinton was trudging through the nightmare campaign of a lifetime, struggling to find any popular support, and about to lose to a previously little-known guy from Vermont. So you may be stunned to wake up this morning to find that Hillary just won the pivotal state of South Carolina by a whopping forty-seven points. But this outcome is neither a fluke nor a surprise. The media has merely been selling you on false narratives all along. Here’s what’s really been going on in the democratic primary:
Despite months of claims by every cable news outlet that Hillary Clinton was “in trouble,” that narrative never fit with the facts. She’s won three of the first four states to vote, and the only one she lost was in the backyard of her regionally popular opponent. She’s held consistently large leads in every southern state all along, and she was always going to do well in every region that wasn’t all-white and all-rural. Her ability to compete in Iowa all but proved that she would dominate once she reached the more diverse states. And there’s about to be a whole lot more of what we saw in South Carolina.
In short, you were the unwitting victim of the media entities that were trying to falsely paint Hillary Clinton as being in trouble for the sake of ratings, while falsely painting her trendy opponent as being a viable candidate when the numbers said all along that he never was. Do yourself a favor and turn off cable news, before its false narratives once again leave you surprised when the next predictable round of voting results comes in.
HNV will return tomorrow with News & Views beyond South Carolina.


  1. I think that Democratic voter turnout is only lower for those who aren't voting for or against Trump (and/or Republicans).

    The working class white voters who joined the worker's revolutions of yore are those voting for Trump, if racist, and the others are split between Sanders and Clinton, depending on other factors.

    Only the African Americans, so far, who well know the stakes and can't be fooled, are voting in greater numbers in the primaries, to get the best chance of defeating a Republican, among other considerations.

    I predict a higher than usual non-Cuban Hispanic turnout in the primaries, because of Hispanic voter registrations drives, to increase numbers against Trump in particular, but really any of them.

    Are older women turning out, or is it just older African American women?

    my thought - yet again America is saved by African Americans.

    thanks, annie

  2. I think she finally crystalized her campaign with that line: Tear down barriers instead of building walls. This election is going to be about peace/love vs fear/hatred.

    It's a simple concept that taps into peoples' better angels, and it very clearly articulates the difference between GOP and Dem platforms. Brilliant.