Friday, February 26, 2016

Clinton Will Crush Sanders in South Carolina, But It's Only the Beginning


We already know that Bernie Sanders has thrown in the towel in South Carolina, and the latest poll reminds us why:
Yeah, that's pretty nuts. A 75%-25% Clinton victory there would be staggering, but let's not go overboard. Something like a 65%-35% win is far more likely, and none of her supporters should complain about that. Whatever the case, get ready to party.

But you don't need to take my word for it. Here's what Nate Silver, America's greatest political statistician, has to say about it over at FiveThirtyEight.com:

Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the South Carolina primary.

But that's not all. Not even close.

The March polls are coming in so fast and furious right now that it's hard to keep track of them all, so I'll let Nate keep doing the talking. As of this writing, here are Hillary Clinton's upcoming chances according to FiveThirtyEight.com. The most recent polls can be seen on the individual state pages:

March 1st (Super Tuesday):

Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the Texas primary.
Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the Georgia primary.
Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the Virginia primary.
Hillary Clinton has a 98% chance of winning the Arkansas primary.
Hillary Clinton has a 98% chance of winning the Tennessee primary.
Hillary Clinton has an 82% chance of winning the Massachusetts primary.
Hillary Clinton has a 78% chance of winning the Oklahoma primary.

March 8th:

Hillary Clinton has a 97% chance of winning the Michigan primary.

March 15th:

Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the Florida primary.
Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the Illinois primary.
Hillary Clinton has a 97% chance of winning the North Carolina primary.
Hillary Clinton has a 96% chance of winning the Ohio primary.

But even this doesn't provide the full picture of Hillary's upcoming domination. There are other states voting during in this time where she should also win easily, but there is insufficient polling for 538 to make a prediction: Alabama (March 1), Louisiana (March 5), Mississippi (March 8) and Missouri (March 15).

Meanwhile, the only sure thing for Bernie Sanders is his home state:

Bernie Sanders has a greater than 99% chance of winning the Vermont primary.

I think we can all see where this is headed.

9 comments:

  1. Wow, this was so much fun to write!

    BTW, nice to see a lot of new commenters here. Welcome! Seeing a lot of anonymouses though...which is fine, but consider logging in with your Google name or creating a new one with AIM or another service. If you need some help with that, let me know in the comments and I'll see what I can do.

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  2. Hi This is all so exciting, but in all honesty, I have always been more concerned with Trump.

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    1. Hillary doesn't seem too concerned: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nlde0-W0KQ

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    2. don't worry, he's our 50-state strategy. I have two very old friends, one the husband my my best college friend who is a Republican and the other an old college friend who is a libertarian, both men. We obviously have little in common politically.

      they each wrote me this week, they don't know each other, but each said pretty much the same thing, they'll be voting for Hillary this time.

      Donald has a game plan and he does intend to take the queen of spades (he's knocked off the little hearts, Cruz is a Canadian liar and Rubio is a job exporting anchor baby) and he is doing his best to look acceptable to everybody on something, which has served to make the Republicans less wary of his candidacy, but he can't win a GE, unless it's Bernie and he's too smart to have ever considered that a plausibility.

      he's the one I want, so much that I sent Kascish a donation. Really, I sent him 25 bucks.

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  3. What terrific news!

    This diary and Peter's work over at BNR have really helped me keep an even keel, and helped me to not fall into the ad hominem pit that DK is these days.

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    1. Here comes the sun... do do do do...

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  4. Very happy to hear these encouraging polls. Long time lurker but first time poster here. I also follow the Hillary Writers Circle blog at DKos.

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    1. Cool. Welcome to the comments at HHQ!

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  5. What is the over under on SC Primary.. Someone is offering me 30 points does anyone think she can cover that? Meaning she has to win by at least 30%

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