Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Bernie Has Given Up in South Carolina, Texas, Georgia and More

Did you hear that Bernie Sanders has thrown in the towel in South Carolina?
With just a few days until the South Carolina Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders is all but writing the state off.
He hasn’t said that, of course, but his schedule reflects it.
Sanders was in Massachusetts Monday night and Virginia Tuesday morning. While he attended a televised town hall in South Carolina Tuesday night and followed with an early morning news conference, his itinerary Wednesday consisted of events in Kansas City, Missouri, and Tulsa, Oklahoma. After that, his schedule called for a trip to Ohio Thursday — with stops in other March-voting states likely to be added, an aide said.
Smart thinking, as Nate Silver gives him a less than 1% chance of winning there.

But that's not the only state that he isn't contesting, as this graph of Super Tuesday ad spending clearly shows:
(Click on the chart to see a larger version. Via Mark Murray)

Let's break it down.

Looking at a combination of recent polls, ad spending and campaign appearances (for instance, Bernie hasn't had a Texas rally in 220 days), it is clear that Sanders is not contesting the following Super Tuesday states, all of which should be heavy delegate blowouts for Clinton:

Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia

However, both Clinton and Sanders are throwing a lot of money at these four states, which could go either way:

Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Oklahoma

Wow, the Sanders camp is spending like drunken sailors in Colorado! I guess they really want that one. Like Minnesota, it's a caucus state so it's hard to tell how those will go. Massachusetts another Sanders neighbor state and the polls are very tight. And Oklahoma will likely go for Clinton, but one recent poll put him well within reach of an upset.

If Sanders wins all four, it would give him a little bit of oxygen to carry on. But he could just as easily lose all four, which would be utterly devastating in terms of delegate count, momentum and morale. If I had to guess, he'll probably split them and barely net any delegates from these four states.

Meanwhile, Clinton appears only to have ceded Vermont...but even there they are spending a little bit of money!

I think we can all see where this is headed.

And unfortunately for Bernie, the rest of March doesn't look much easier.

11 comments:

  1. Looks good. About time for Merkeley and Warren to endorse someone. If they don't endorse Bernie soon it won't help him and if they hold off endorsing Hillary it won't make any difference they will have missed the boat.

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    1. I emailed Merkeley today as his constituent. Very dissatisfied with his tacit support of Sanders divisive insurgence when blue needs a win so desperately this year.

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    2. What the hell is in CO? Pixie dust?

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  2. Looks good. About time for Merkeley and Warren to endorse someone. If they don't endorse Bernie soon it won't help him and if they hold off endorsing Hillary it won't make any difference they will have missed the boat.

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  3. And where is Caroline Kennedy's endorsement? And the other surviving Kennedys? Her endorsement had a big impact when she endorsed Obama in 2008. Two years ago she said she would endorse HRC if she ran in 2016. Well, Ms. Kennedy, we're waiting!

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    1. She supports Hillary as well as Rep Joe Kennedy....http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-clinton-kennedy-idUSBREA3N1MX20140424

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    2. http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/238912-2016-hillary-endorsement-list

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    3. Caroline Kennedy did endorse Clinton just a couple of weeks ago.

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  4. I'm still waiting for Rev. Sharpton to endorse HRC?!
    What's up with his him?!
    It sounded like an endorsement would be forthcoming for HRC after the Rev. met with Bernie Sanders, well evidently the meeting didn't go so well after the Rev gave Bernie Sanders a list of complaints, as Bernie Sanders is known to do he showed us the real Bernie. as he reared his cantankerous head leaving the meeting minus a Blessing from the good Reverend Al Sharpton.
    So what's the hold up with the Rev. Sharptons endorsement for HRC?
    It would be wonderful if Rev. Sharpton would endorse HRC before the S.C. primary! :)

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    Replies
    1. A VOTE FOR HILLARY
      IS A VOTE FOR TRUMP!
      If Trump is the Republican
      nominee, Hillary CANNOT WIN!

      BERNIE BEATS TRUMP
      IN A LANDSLIDE PER
      REUTERS' LATEST POLL!

      TRUMP DESTROYS HILLARY
      in a vicious attack on her and Bill.
      He already has it planned!

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  5. What happened to Oprah this cycle? Hillary could sure use her endorsement!

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