Thursday, February 18, 2016

All the Polls Agree: Hillary is Crushing Bernie in South Carolina

A game-changing win is right around the corner, folks:
Hillary Clinton continues to hold a large lead over Bernie Sanders in the South Carolina primary according to the latest Monmouth University Poll. Clinton is seen as the stronger candidate on issues of concern to African-Americans and those who are struggling financially. 
Clinton currently holds a 59% to 30% lead over Sanders among those likely to vote in South Carolina’s Democratic primary next week. This is down somewhat from the 69% to 21% lead she held in November, but is still a sizable margin. 
Sanders did well in Iowa and New Hampshire because of the overwhelming support he received from younger voters. However, those first two states had almost entirely white electorates. The South Carolina Democratic electorate is expected to be majority African-American. The Monmouth poll finds that Sanders’s appeal to younger white voters does not necessarily translate to younger black voters. 
Among white voters under the age of 50, Sanders has a small, statistically insignificant lead of 48% to 44% over Clinton, but among black voters under 50, Clinton has a sizable 60% to 26% advantage. This is only slightly smaller than Clinton’s 69% to 12% lead among black voters age 50 and older and is actually wider than the 59% to 39% lead she holds among older white voters in South Carolina.
Clinton's nearly two-to-one lead over Sanders in this South Carolina poll is nothing unusual, with several other polls from the state over the past week showing a lead of anywhere between 18-38 points. Oh yeah, and Nate Silver is currently giving Hillary a more than 99% chance of winning there.

Because we Hillary supporters have heard so much gloom and doom talk from the media over the past year, which has ramped up since her loss in New Hampshire, it may be hard to feel optimistic right now. But we should. After Hillary does fine in Nevada, she will have a clear lead in Democratic pledged delegates starting on the evening of February 27th. And because Super Tuesday follows just three days later, she'll never give that lead up.

From there, it won't take long before everyone knows who the Democratic nominee will be.


  1. This is such refreshing news! I'm hopeful. The media coverage has been all negatively framed when it comes to Hillary - really awful. Hillary seems to be doing just fine with younger voters and women in South Carolina. I wonder what the press has to say about that! I sincerely hope all goes well for her in Nevada and S.C. She is such a remarkable person and would make a great president.

  2. Thank you for this bracing taste of reality.