Wednesday, January 20, 2016

THE JUGGERNAUT CONTINUES: Hillary 62% Bernie 26% in Florida (Update)

A new poll from Florida Atlantic University shows that while Sanders has gained a bit in the Sunshine State over the past several’s nowhere near enough to make a dent in Clinton’s overwhelming lead of 36 points.
On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 36 percentage points, 62 percent to the Vermont senator’s 26 percent. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley has 4 percent, up from 2 percent in September. Clinton’s share is down slightly from the previous survey, in November, in which she held 66 percent of the vote. Sanders has been increasing since September, when he had 15 percent. In November, Sanders took 22 percent.
This poll was taken in the midst of another intense round of “Clinton doom/Sanders ascendant” media mania, so this would have been a good time for Bernie to make a move in this very delegate-rich state. But it sure doesn’t look like it. And this poll was taken before the wide-open Bernie backlash that is currently taking hold among Democrats following yesterday’s Planned Parenthood dissing/Dick Cheney comparing outrages.

For Hillary, Iowa is a challenge and New Hampshire sure looks tough. But after that? Florida is a closed Democratic primary in the middle of March, and it follows a bunch of states like Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Georgia, Arkansas and Virginia.

Hold onto your butts!


UPDATE: A new PPP poll of another southern state with a March 15th primary (North Carolina) has just popped up, and it tells the same story:
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton remains dominant with 59% to 26% for Bernie Sanders, and 5% for Martin O'Malley. The North Carolina numbers speak to the demographic advantages that may cause things to work out fine for Clinton even if she does struggle in Iowa and New Hampshire. Among African Americans, which are about a third of the primary electorate in North Carolina, Clinton leads Sanders 77/12 with O'Malley getting 2%. Clinton's favorability with black voters is 81/11, compared to 43/20 for Sanders. That overwhelming advantage with black voters should make the South a very strong region for Clinton as the race moves to its states. Clinton is also benefiting from having much more committed support- 78% of her supporters say they are definitely going to vote for her, compared to 50% of Sanders' who say the same.

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