Yesterday I expressed my puzzlement at the recent crazy polls in Iowa and New Hampshire while still concluding that the fundamentals of the race haven't changed. I still feel that way, but I'm wondering if there might be something else at work in the minds of the first voters in the country.
We're at a pivot point in this cycle, after the slow holiday season but still several weeks before the first contests. We've crossed over into 2016, and the election is no longer a thought exercise about something in the distant future. It's an important event just around the corner that needs real consideration.
Basically, this feels like the final "hmmm..." phase before we get down to the brass tacks of actually picking the next President of the United States. Therefore, the current Clinton campaign strategy of “are you sure about this whole Bernie thing?” makes total sense. Now is the exact right time to start putting the big choice into crystal clear focus, and that's exactly what they are doing.
It's going to be a interesting few weeks in the early states and beyond as people make their final considerations about who should get their 2016 vote, rather than their casual 2015 support. But my hunch tells me that a majority of Iowa Democrats will eventually make up their minds to support the early favorite...a historic female candidate who just so happens to be the most experienced and electable person in the race.
And then things will get really fun.