Friday, January 8, 2016

PPP Poll: Republicans Losing Ground in New Hampshire


It looks like another month of Trumpism has taken its toll on the GOP, because PPP’s latest poll of New Hampshire shows all Republicans running further behind both Clinton and Sanders than they were in early December. The numbers are particularly striking for Sanders, who is extremely well-liked by both Democrats and independents in his neighboring state.
PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders leading the Republican field in the state, although Sanders does an average of 9 points better than Clinton in the general election match ups.
The Republican who comes closest to Clinton is Marco Rubio, who trails by 3 points at 45/42. The rest of the Republican hopefuls lose by wider margins than Mitt Romney did in the state in 2012- Jeb Bush trails by 6 at 46/40, Ted Cruz is down 8 at 48/40, Ben Carson has an 11 point deficit at 50/39, and Donald Trump does the worst with a 14 point gap at 50/36.
Sanders is the only candidate with a positive favorability rating among the overall electorate in the state, and it's a very positive rating- 55% of voters see him positively to only 35% who have a negative opinion. He leads the entire GOP field by double digits- it's 12 points over Bush at 50/38, 14 points over Rubio at 51/37, 19 over Carson at 53/34, and 20 points over both Trump and Cruz at 54/34 and 55/35 respectively.
A lot of interesting dynamics here, like:

-Trump may be the clear frontrunner in the state’s primary, but he’s getting crushed hilariously and epically by the blue team.

-Sanders’ overall popularity isn’t translating into an advantage against Clinton in the primary, who leads him by 3 points in this same poll.

-The GOP's slide hasn't translated to the senate race, where Kelly Ayotte is still edging Maggie Hassan by 2, despite approval numbers that would seem to suggest otherwise.

Overall though, positive news for the good guys! We’re definitely on track to keep New Hampshire as a brick in the blue wall once again this November.

2 comments:

  1. Here are the #s from a month ago from PPP, if you’re wondering:

    Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both lead all of the Republican candidates for President in New Hampshire, but Sanders does an average of 4 points better in the match ups. The GOP hopeful who fares best against Sanders is Marco Rubio, who trails 45/41. Ben Carson trails him by 5 at 46/41, Carly Fiorina is down 8 at 48/40, Jeb Bush and Donald Trump each trail by 9 at 47/38 and 49/40 respectively, and the weakest Republican against Sanders is Ted Cruz who is down 10 at 48/38. Sanders is also the only candidate with a positive favorability rating among the overall electorate in New Hampshire, at 46/40.

    Clinton leads all of the Republicans as well, although by smaller margins. She's up 1 each on Rubio at 44/43 and Fiorina at 45/44, 2 each on Bush at 43/41 and Carson at 45/43, and has wider leads over Trump at 47/41 and Cruz at 47/39. There does appear to be potential for a closer general election than New Hampshire had in 2008 and 2012 at this point if Clinton is the nominee.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/hassanayotte-knotted-sanders-strongest-in-general.html#more

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  2. scan--great news out of NH---but can you tell me the R vs D breakdown of the recent Fox Poll which came out on 1/9/16?

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