Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Clinton Leads Sanders by Huge Margin In Reuters/Ipsos National Poll

Reuters/Ipsos national tracking poll (11/12-1/12, registered voters)
So, uh...what the hell is going on with the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire this week? You tell me, because I'm stumped.

In fact, I thought Sanders' staff getting caught red-handed stealing voter data from the Clinton camp, followed by a lawsuit against the party, would most likely hurt Bernie's chances. But right now, polls say that Democrats in those two states seem to be perfectly fine with that sort of behavior. Similarly, when it was announced at the new year that Hillary raised $18 million for the party while Bernie raised nothing, I figured it could only help her in those early-voting states that should be paying close attention right now. Hah! Silly me...wrong again.

However, there's another possibility: Maybe, despite a brief flurry of polls that suggest otherwise, the big-picture fundamentals of the race haven't suddenly and mysteriously changed over the past few days. The picture isn't even unanimous, with PPP showing Hillary leading Bernie in New Hampshire 47%-44%, gaining a point since their last poll. Like everyone else though, I'm just looking forward to more info over the next week or two that will hopefully clarify the situation.

But whatever is happening in those two states, it doesn't appear to be replicated on the national level. The only poll to show a close race recently is IBD/TIPP...and the rest haven't budged much. And take a look at the chart above, which shows the Democratic race over the past two months according to the Reuters/Ipsos national tracking poll. I've set the filter to "registered Democrats" where the margin is currently Clinton 60% - Sanders 32%. This is basically a middle ground between the "all Democrats" filter (where Clinton leads by 19) and the "registered Democrats likely to vote" filter (where Clinton leads by 33).

As you can see, there's not much of a Bernie new year's spike to be found here. Actually, according to this chart, Clinton has gained eight points just in the last three days. I don't necessarily believe that either, but that's what it says. What's really interesting and crucial is the overall pattern of stability. Yes, there are certainly spikes and dips all over the place...but the fundamentals have barely budged in two months.

So I'm doubtful of a seismic shift in Iowa and New Hampshire...but we'll find out soon enough if it's just polling anomalies or if Democrats are actually starting to change their minds about who should be the nominee.

17 comments:

  1. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Hillary seems to have gotten a nice bump after each of the debates, when people see the two choices side by side. There's one on Jan 17, let's hope that the trend continues.

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    1. Yeah, she always did well right after the debates. Can't wait til the next one on Sunday!

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    2. I'm with you there... Glad another debate is on the horizon.

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  2. I'm getting sick--especially re the Iowa polls--it's unbelievable. This is worse that 8 years ago. Of course the media ignored the PPP and ARG polls out of NH--BUT they were crazy over themselves about the bad Hillary polls recently. Personally this is my last hurrah in politics. If Hillary does not get the nomination and they nominate a socialist egotist windbag--I'm switching to the Republicans and will even vote for Trump.

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    1. Trump and the Republicans aren't the answer. This isn't going to be a PUMA site.

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    2. Besides...Hillary will be the nominee anyway.

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    3. I hope you are just joking out of frustration, but why would you hate the American people, especially the poor, the old, the sick, the lower and working classes, so much that you would vote Republican? How would that help anything?

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    4. I feel the same way, If America cannot nominate an "over the top qualified" woman like Hillary, I quit too, I will not vote for 74 year old just because he has a penis.

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    5. Y'all...chill out. Hillary is going to win the nomination. Then she will be president. There are no other options as far as I'm concerned. Leave any pro-Trump talk at the door.

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    6. I was a PUMA 8 years ago and a PUMA I will be this time again if this party gives its precious nomination to a NON-DEMOCRAT like Sanders. At least Obama was a democrat.

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    7. He's my policy, and its for everyone: You are free to vote for whoever you want, but I'd rather turn off the comments than have my posts regularly followed by PUMA stuff. We're here to get Hillary elected, not to entertain the idea of voting for Republicans.

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    8. Ok fine--here's my policy--I won't be commenting here again--nor visiting. Hillary deserves the nomination PERIOD--and if Sanders wins it I am voting Republican--bye.

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  3. HillaryHq is using rolling 60 day data for the above numbers, which is simply not very accurate. That rolling timeframe is simply too long of a timeframe to be valuable. The latest Ipsos/Reuters poll that I can find was from 1/1 to 1/6, and it was an "internet" poll so I'm not sure what that means in terms of methodology. But that Ipsos/Reuters poll does show Hillary ahead of Bernie by 28 points.

    Recent national polls that include polling during 2016, that is, polling over the last two weeks, are skewed all over the place.
    There are 8 national polls which include polling dates in the new year. Hillary leads in all of them: Two of those polls show Hillary with less than a ten point lead. Four show Hillary with a lead in the teens. One shows Hillary with a 28 point lead, one shows Hillary with a 39 point lead. Bernie does appear to have closed the gap somewhat over the past two weeks, but, to repeat, the national polling is all over the place and Hillary still leads in all of these polls.

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    1. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

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    2. I link to that national pollster info in the piece. This graphic is showing the overall stability of the race according to one tracking poll.

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  4. Try Fivethirtyeight.com. Nate Silver correctly predicted all 50 states in 2012. He has Hillary at a 73% chance of taking Iowa and a 53 % chance at taking New Hampshire. Bernie's territory. They use averages of all polls combined with endorsement data. He also states individual polls are going to be highly inaccurate because seasoned voters in both states are being poll bombed to death by every pollster and news agency on the planet so they are no longer answering their phones.

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    1. And they are also being called by the campaigns. I'm phone banking and the contact rate is going down. It's just what it is. Polling in an era of caller ID is a nightmare. I don't know how they get any kind of accurate data at all.

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