Thursday, January 21, 2016

Clinton Campaign Shares Early State Internal Poll Numbers

John Podesta and Hillary Clinton
In a late-afternoon article yesterday about the Clinton camp courting Latino donors, BuzzFeed News casually mentioned something that should be of keen interest to election junkies:
On a call with supporters Monday, the campaign shared internal polls that showed it up by 5 points in Iowa, trailing Sen. Bernie Sanders by 8 to 9 points in New Hampshire, but with large leads in the next two states with large Hispanic and black populations: up 25 points in Nevada and 35 points in South Carolina.
I take them at their word on this, because it sounds just about right.

It may be close, but Iowa is still looking good for Hillary. And all the recent "she might lose!" talk will only make her win more meaningful, no matter what her margin of victory ends up being. After that, she'll probably get some kind of a boost in New Hampshire. But win or lose there, it probably won't matter much...because it would take a seismic shift for her to lose Nevada or South Carolina. And then the March stomp ensues.

BuzzFeed also adds some encouragement from campaign chair John Podesta:
At the finance meeting, Podesta said the campaign is going to win Iowa, attendees said.
I agree with that, and so does Nate Silver, who currently gives Clinton an 83% excellent chance (see below) to win the caucuses. This was helped along today by a new Monmouth/KBUR poll that has Hillary up by 9% in Iowa. Additionally...and this may or may not be crucial...but it was taken about a week after the most recent batch of polls and entirely after the most recent Democratic debate (Jan 18-19).

Is Iowa's brief flirtation with Bernie already coming to an end? We shall see in the coming days... but that was my prediction a week ago.


UPDATE: Oh goody, more crazy polling suddenly out of Iowa! A new Emerson poll also has Hillary "surging" to a 9-point lead over Bernie after the last debate (52-43). Which is awesome... except that a new CNN poll says the exact opposite, with Bernie leading 51-43! There is an explanation for the latter though: "Of Democrats who caucused in 2008, Clinton leads Sanders, 55% to 38%."  What the what...?
Uh, yeah. A huge amount. An insane amount. And here's Nate:
Armando breaks down the crazy further:
If an unprecedented horde of young white males actually shows up in a last-ditch attempt keep the first woman president out of office, what would that say about modern day sexism? Not that I expect it, of course.

But again...and this is important...a bad but demonstrably outlier poll out of Iowa has the upside of making any Clinton win there a huge win.


  1. What helps Hillary in Iowa also is her ground operation. They were outflanked by Obama in 2008, and learned the hard way not to let that happen again. I saw a number of good reports from canvassing for Hillary that went on last weekend.

    1. I also feel good about her organization there.