Monday, December 19, 2016

The People's President


The Electoral College has got to go.

Monday, December 12, 2016

It's Now Up To the Electoral College to Save America

Unbelievably, 2016 still isn't over yet.

Despite the results of November 8th, the apparent collapse of recount efforts in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and little change in the recounted ballots of Wisconsin, it's still not 100% certain who the next president will be because the Electoral College hasn't made it official yet.

And following the weekend bombshell that Russia directly intervened in order to elect Donald Trump, this insane election has gone even further into truly uncharted territory:
In its first show of public support for efforts questioning the legitimacy of Donald Trump's victory, Hillary Clinton’s campaign said it is supporting a request by members of the Electoral College for an intelligence briefing on foreign intervention in the presidential election.

“The bipartisan electors' letter raises very grave issues involving our national security,” Podesta said in a statement Monday. “Electors have a solemn responsibility under the Constitution and we support their efforts to have their questions addressed.”

“Each day that month, our campaign decried the interference of Russia in our campaign and its evident goal of hurting our campaign to aid Donald Trump,” he said. “Despite our protestations, this matter did not receive the attention it deserved by the media in the campaign. We now know that the CIA has determined Russia's interference in our elections was for the purpose of electing Donald Trump. This should distress every American.”

Podesta’s statement follows an open letter from 10 members of the Electoral College, including Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi’s daughter Christine and a former member of Congress, who are demanding a briefing from U.S. intelligence officials on any ongoing investigations into Donald Trump’s ties to Russia.

In a letter to Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, the electors — nine Democrats and one Republican — argue that they require the information ahead of Dec. 19, when the Electoral College is set to meet and select the next president.

“The Electors require to know from the intelligence community whether there are ongoing investigations into ties between Donald Trump, his campaign or associates, and Russian government interference in the election, the scope of those investigations, how far those investigations may have reached, and who was involved in those investigations,” they wrote. “We further require a briefing on all investigative findings, as these matters directly impact the core factors in our deliberations of whether Mr. Trump is fit to serve as President of the United States.”
It's one thing for a few electors to request more information, but the Clinton campaign encouraging these intelligence briefings and therefore questioning the legitimacy of Trump's win at this point? That's truly unprecedented. Honestly, I have no idea what's going to happen from now until December 19th (or January 20th for that matter).

Here's the key question that must be answered in the next week: Did the Trump campaign coordinate directly with elements in the Russian government to help him win the presidency? We already know that Donald himself asked the Russians to hack Hillary's emails (because we saw it with our own eyes at his last press conference in July). But if the electors receive proof that Trump won due to a traitorous direct connection with Vladimir Putin...all bets are off.

It would be all too appropriate if none other than Alexander Hamilton saves our nation over 200 years after his death. But if the electors look to his guidance and do their jobs as patriots, it just might happen.

Whatever the electors decide in the end, it's going to be another very interesting week in American history. Stay tuned.


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Friday, December 2, 2016

Trump is Trying to Stop the Recounts. What's He So Afraid Of?

Not over just yet.
Question: If the recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are "crazy" or "frivolous"...then why is Donald Trump trying so desperately to stop them? Maybe news like this has something to do with it? Remember that Trump himself told the nation that the election was fraudulent just a few days ago, which makes these legal moves by his lawyers and allies even more curious. If I didn't know any better, I'd guess that he knows his win is questionable and is scared that the truth will come out before he can take the oath of office. Hopefully the Clinton lawyers are ready to fight back.

I feel like there's a major story brewing just under the surface. The media isn't focusing on it too much right now because the idea that the election could be overturned does sound kinda crazy. And it would certainly be unprecedented.

But if there's any year where "crazy" and "unprecedented" apply, it's 2016.

Let the recounts and audits continue.

Monday, November 28, 2016

After "Winning", Unhinged Trump Now Says the Election was Fraudulent


As I'm sure you've heard by now, some truly massive news occurred over the long Thanksgiving weekend:
Hillary Clinton’s campaign on Saturday said that it would participate in a recount initiated by Green Party nominee Jill Stein in Wisconsin and said it would take similar action if a recount was initiated in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The campaign has taken a number of steps since election day to review election results and has not found “any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology,” Marc Elias, the campaign’s general counsel, wrote in a statement on Medium. The campaign had not planned to call for a recount, Elias wrote, but now that one is underway, it felt an obligation to participate. The extent of the campaign’s participation was not immediately clear.

“Now that a recount has been initiated in Wisconsin, we intend to participate in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides,” Elias wrote. “If Jill Stein follows through as she has promised and pursues recounts in Pennsylvania and Michigan, we will take the same approach in those states as well.”

Stein filed for a recount in Wisconsin on Friday after quickly raising more than $5 million to challenge election results there and in Michigan and Pennsylvania ― all key states that Clinton lost in the presidential election. Stein’s call for a recount came after data scientists publicly raised questions about discrepancies in election results.

Elias wrote that the Clinton campaign had been consulting with a number of experts to understand irregularities in election result data and had attempted to “systematically catalogue and investigate every theory that has been presented to us within our ability to do so.” The campaign has also staffed post-election canvasses ― the processes by which election returns are officially certified, which includes double checking tallies from election night.
As expected, the response from Donald Trump and his campaign was calm and respectful of this important process.

Hahahaha...just kiddin'! After the expected nasty, insulting, false and defensive response from Kellyanne Conway came the main course from the candidate himself. It was even more unhinged than we're used to, culminating in this:




Our so-called president-elect just said that the election was fraudulent without any evidence. Without going any further, let's just take a moment to appreciate how utterly insane and unprecedented this is. With each passing day, we're in new and scarier territory. We're used to him lying and bullying because that's all he ever does. What's really important here is that Trump is saying that the election was rigged even though he (apparently) won! And to be clear, he's the only candidate saying such a thing.

It's hard to even analyze such a bizarre and fast-moving situation right now, especially before we see any of the results from the Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania recounts/audits. But I do have a suggestion for any interested party:

Call Trump's bluff and request new recounts/audits not only in Virginia and New Hampshire, but also Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa...and any other state where the polls and exits deviated greatly from the vote count.

The "president-elect" believes that the election was rigged, and the public should have no faith in the security of our electoral system as a result. The door is now wide open to prove him right or wrong as a public service to the American people, and we should do just that.

The post-election situation has already spun out of control. What the hell do we have to lose?

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Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Did Trump Really Win?


Did Trump really win?

In one way, the answer is most definitely no:
Hillary Clinton is the winner of the national popular vote, and she will be the people's president for the next four years no matter what.

But what about the electoral college?

After Hillary's concession, I initially decided to put this site on hiatus through the rest of the year with this post and reevaluate the future of HillaryHQ.com at a later date. However, that was before this bombshell story in New York Magazine:
Hillary Clinton is being urged by a group of prominent computer scientists and election lawyers to call for a recount in three swing states won by Donald Trump, New York has learned. The group, which includes voting-rights attorney John Bonifaz and J. Alex Halderman, the director of the University of Michigan Center for Computer Security and Society, believes they’ve found persuasive evidence that results in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania may have been manipulated or hacked. The group is so far not speaking on the record about their findings and is focused on lobbying the Clinton team in private.

Last Thursday, the activists held a conference call with Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta and campaign general counsel Marc Elias to make their case, according to a source briefed on the call. The academics presented findings showing that in Wisconsin, Clinton received 7 percent fewer votes in counties that relied on electronic-voting machines compared with counties that used optical scanners and paper ballots. Based on this statistical analysis, Clinton may have been denied as many as 30,000 votes; she lost Wisconsin by 27,000. While it’s important to note the group has not found proof of hacking or manipulation, they are arguing to the campaign that the suspicious pattern merits an independent review — especially in light of the fact that the Obama White House has accused the Russian government of hacking the Democratic National Committee.
To my mind, there are three big reasons why this article is significant. One, it's published in an extremely reputable source. Two, a couple of top people in the Clinton camp (Podesta and Elias) are listening to these claims and apparently taking them seriously. And three, the name "J. Alex Halderman". I personally didn't recognize that name, but some people in the know certainly did.
The story has already spread to CNN, New York Daily News and Huffington Post, and where it will go in the coming days is anyone's guess. But it's out there in the mainstream now, and the momentum to verify the vote continues to build.

Despite this site being inactive, Hillary HQ has been on top of the latest news regarding vote irregularities for almost two weeks on Twitter and Facebook, and has supported efforts to recount and/or audit certain swing states.

A few thoughts on the latest developments:
It's impossible to know where any of this will lead, but it needs to be seriously checked out. Maybe the original counts will be 100% verified and we can at least rest easy that no one hacked the vote. Or maybe there really is something crazy, frightening and unprecedented going on. As insane as this entire year has been, nothing would surprise me.

Whatever the case...win or lose...it is the position of Hillary HQ that we fight Donald Trump every single step of the way. The results on election night felt wrong and ever since then I've had this weird feeling that it's not over yet.

He's not president until he's president...and even then, he's not our president. We fight on.

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Thursday, November 10, 2016

Hillary Clinton: The People's Champion


24 hours later, it's still hard to know what to say.

Despite running an incredible, historic and amazingly progressive campaign, which included the greatest political convention of our generation, decisive wins in all three debates, and a national popular vote victory...Hillary Clinton came up just short in enough states to lose the electoral college to Donald Trump.

She did everything she possibly could, but the forces of darkness somehow managed to narrowly keep her out of the Oval Office at the last moment. I have no doubt that Hillary and her family will be fine, but our country is going to have to reckon with this tragic decision for years and possibly decades to come.

However, she'll always be the people's choice and the people's champion. No matter what the Trump presidency brings, he'll always be the second choice of the American people and there's nothing he can ever do about it. Hillary won the most votes in 2016, and if this was a true democracy we'd be celebrating her as the president-elect at this moment.

But, alas, life is not fair. So now we must mourn, regroup, live our lives, love one another and fight the next battles when we're ready. I have no doubt that Hillary will soon be leading that charge with her fight song, and we need to have her back. Now and always.

If you haven't read the final installment of Hillary News & Views by my friend and blog partner Lysis, please check it out now. He speaks beautifully for me in this incredibly sad moment.

What does all this mean for Hillary HQ? Well, the site isn't going away anytime soon. I'm leaving it right here as a historical record of this incredible journey. However, this will be the final post for the foreseeable future. I'm not walking away from writing or progressive activism, and I'm definitely not walking away from Hillary, but it's personally and financially important for me to move on with a fresh start at this moment. But Hillary HQ will remain active on Twitter and Facebook indefinitely so please keep following us there for the latest news and opinion about Hillary and the causes she fights for.

Also, keep an eye on my profile page at Daily Kos as there's no telling when I'll write something there again (likely closer to the 2018 midterms).

To all of Hillary HQ's readers, followers, sharers and commenters...thank you. I couldn't have done this without you.

Lastly, I want to particularly thank everyone who supported this site over the last six months via GoFundMe and PayPal. You are the reason I was able to leave my longtime day job to live my dream of running this site full-time. It also allowed me to travel to Philadelphia to attend the Democratic National Convention...truly the chance of a lifetime. As I figure out a transition back to regular employment and income, any final donations would be greatly helpful if you have appreciated this site over the past 22 months (see buttons on the right).

I leave you with the beautiful concession speeches by Tim Kaine and Hillary Clinton.



Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Hillary News & Views: Thank You, Hillary.


By Lysis

Thank you, Hillary.

Thank you for standing up for and standing with marginalized communities, for being the one who was willing to look the bully in the eye and fight back on behalf of all of us, knowing full well that the bully often wins.

Thank you for being willing to serve, knowing full well you would be giving us the final years of your life to do so.

Thank you for offering up your gifts and talents, knowing full well that in return, you would receive dehumanizing character assassination rooted in merciless and shameless misogyny.

Thank you for believing in our country, that our better angels could persevere and for believing that America is great because it is good, even if that’s so much harder to believe today than it was yesterday.

Thank you for your graciousness and dignity, accepting your victories along the way with the same humility you have always shown in defeat.

Thank you for your tireless work ethic, always showing up the most prepared and with policies the most thought-through, which always demonstrated to me how seriously you took the job that you were applying for.

Thank you for showing me how to be an ally, which requires listening and the centering of needs more urgent than my own. I will forever stand with the communities that supported you in this election, and I will try, in my own small way, to be the a voice for them the way that you promised to be as our president.

Thank you for allowing me the opportunity to cast my vote for you, and in return, I promise to carry on the work that you have begun and I am sure that you will continue to do, because you always find another way to serve, a way to get back up when knocked down, and a way toward an open window when the door in front of you has been locked shut.

You are not crooked. You never were.

You are not a warmonger. You never were.

You are not cold and calculated. You never were.

You are not a neoliberal or a feminazi or a criminal or a corporatist or any other slur that was used to divorce the woman from her life’s work.

You are great because you are good.

I will forever be grateful for your leadership through example, and I will forever be proud that I cast a vote for justice, equality, compassion, and inclusiveness when I cast my vote for you.

Thank you, Hillary.


We're With Her...Forever


Tuesday, November 8, 2016

CLINTON WINS NEVADA!


AP calls it.

Now Clinton must win New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Michigan to have a chance. And to definitely win the electoral college, a miracle in Wisconsin, Arizona or Alaska.

CLINTON WINS CA, OR, WA and HI!


Clinton wins the West Coast and Hawaii.

It's all down to PA, WI, MI, NV, IA and NH.

CLINTON WINS COLORADO!


Fox news calls it.

As expected, and called pretty early. She needs to hold PA, MI, WI and NV to win the presidency.

CLINTON WINS VIRGINIA!


Fox News calls it. 

Wow, this is way too close. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado and Nevada better hold.

Stay tuned to Hillary HQ on Twitter for the latest.

TIMELINE: What to Look For as the Polls Close


It's go time...and the map above (courtesy of Daily Kos Elections) is absolutely essential.

Here's a handy timeline for what to look for as we witness history.

The first poll closings in the nation, which include parts of Indiana and Kentucky, occur at 6pm ET. There's no chance that any calls will be made until an hour later, but we can still watch the Indiana Senate race results to see if there are any positive early signs for the Democrats downballot.

At 7pm ET, watch Virginia. If it gets called immediately or very soon, Republicans are going to be in a world of hurt all night. Whatever the case, Clinton's margin here will be an important early indicator of national Democratic turnout. Georgia will likely be too close to call for a while. Most interestingly of all, the Florida numbers will start to come in, though we'll need to wait another hour for any call or characterization.

At 7:30pm, polls close in North Carolina and Ohio. I expect both of them to be too close to call for a while. But looking closely at the raw numbers should tell us how things are going soon enough.

8pm ET will be huge. Florida, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and almost all of Michigan and Texas will be done. The hour that follows will be intense!

At 9pm ET, we may immediately know for sure whether the entire blue wall holds and Clinton secures the win. There's also a good chance that we'll have to wait a little bit, but that's nothing to worry about. Colorado and New Mexico also wrap up then, and those calls might be quick as well.

Nevada closes an hour later at 10pm ET, and there's a very good chance that we'll officially know who the next president will be at 11pm ET when the West Coast comes in.

I guess that's pretty complicated, so here's a quick cheat sheet: If Pennsylvania is called quickly for Hillary, uncork the champagne. And when either Florida or North Carolina are called for Hillary, go ahead and start the celebration.

Follow along with Hillary HQ on Twitter for all the latest results and tea leaves starting now. As a reminder, you don't need a Twitter account to see the information...just keep refreshing the page.

The next posts you see on this site will breaking news alerts. Stay tuned for history!

VIDEO: Hillary Clinton & Friends in Philadelphia and Raleigh, NC


New York Daily News:
Hillary Clinton returned to the birthplace of American independence to make her closing argument Monday night, using Independence Hall as a backdrop as she laid the stakes for what she described as a generation-defining election.

"Years from today when your kids and grandkids ask what you did in 2016 when everything was on the line, I want you to be able to say that you did vote, that you voted for an inclusive, big-hearted, open-minded country, a future that will make sure that we will all keep moving together," she declared to a massive crowd the campaign estimated at 30,000 braving the autumn chill to see a Democratic show of force against Donald Trump.

Philadelphia has taken on outsized importance in recent weeks, and not just because of its place in American history. It's the city Clinton is depending on to take her over the finish line, handing her crucial Pennsylvania and possibly the election. The state represents Trump's best chance at winning a historically Democratic state he needs to get the electoral votes needed for the White House.

And with no early voting in the state, Clinton brought out the heavy hitters to land her closing message at her penultimate rally: President Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama, her husband Bill, daughter Chelsea, Jon Bon Jovi and Bruce Springsteen.

"There is a clear choice in this election, a choice between division or unity, between an economy that works for everyone or only those at the top, between strong steady leadership or a loose cannon who could put everything at risk," she declared. "Tomorrow we face the test of our time. What will we vote for, not just against, what will we decide is on the ballot? Because although my name and my opponent's name may be on the ballot every issues you care about is on that ballot."
Here are the full speeches by Chelsea, Bill, Michelle, Barack and Hillary...as well as a pre-speech performance by Bruce Springsteen:



This historic event set the record as the biggest rally by any candidate in this entire election! But it didn't stop there. Hillary, Bill and Chelsea then flew to Raleigh, NC for a midnight encore rally with with Lady Gaga that was perhaps the most energetic rally by any candidate in this entire election:



This is the final "speech post" at Hillary HQ before the election. Enjoy!

This Moment is Yours



Hillary News & Views 11.8: "Stronger Together" Election Day Edition!


Today’s Hillary News & Views is the final edition with Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton as a candidate, and my hope and prayer is that tomorrow morning’s edition will be with her as our President-elect.

Clinton made her closing arguments across the country yesterday at rallies, on television, and with a powerful op-ed.

Hillary Clinton writes for USA Today:
First, we will put forward the biggest investment in new jobs since World War II. We’ll invest in infrastructure and manufacturing to grow our economy for years to come. We’ll produce enough renewable energy to power every home in America within a decade. We’ll cut red tape for small businesses and make it easier for entrepreneurs to get the credit they need to grow and hire — because in America, if you can dream it, you should be able to build it. We’ll pay for it all by asking the wealthy, Wall Street and big corporations to finally pay their fair share. And this commitment will go far beyond the first 100 days. Creating more good jobs with rising incomes will be a central mission of my presidency.
Second, we will introduce comprehensive immigration reform legislation. The last president to sign comprehensive immigration reform was Ronald Reagan, and it was a priority for George W. Bush. I’m confident that we can work across the aisle to pass comprehensive reform that keeps families together and creates a path to citizenship, secures our border, and focuses our enforcement resources on violent criminals. This is the right thing to do, and it will also grow our economy.
Third, to break the gridlock in Washington, we need to get secret, unaccountable money out of our politics. It’s drowning out the voices of the American people. So within my first 30 days, I will introduce a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United. We should be protecting citizens’ rights to vote, not corporations’ rights to buy elections.
Fourth, we need to get started on end-to-end criminal justice reform. Too many people have been sent away for far too long for non-violent offenses. I believe our country will be stronger and safer when everyone has respect for the law and everyone is respected by the law.
There’s so much more we need to do together, and we certainly won’t get it all done in the first 100 days. But we’re going to roll up our sleeves and get to work for American families — and I’ll never, ever quit.

 New York Times reports:
In Philadelphia, Mrs. Clinton drew the biggest crowd of her 19-month campaign to the vast plaza in front of Independence Hall, where Bruce Springsteen, the balladeer of working-class America, rhapsodized about her values and the candidate portrayed herself as a protector of freedom and equality.
“Tomorrow we face the test of our time. What will we vote for — not just against?” Mrs. Clinton asked. “Every issue you care about is at stake.”
She concluded with an appeal to those who have waited decades for a female president.
“Let’s make history together,” she said.
As she embarked on a four-state tour, Mrs. Clinton gave a sunny and optimistic summation of her candidacy for the White House.
“Tomorrow, you can vote for a hopeful, inclusive, big-hearted America,” she told a crowd in Pittsburgh.
Talking Points Memo reports:
"It's the most important election of our lifetimes," Clinton said.
"Our core values are being tested in this election, but my faith in our future has never been stronger," Clinton said. "I love our country, and I believe in the American people, and I know if we bring everyone together, we can set goals and we can move toward them and we can feel that sense of accomplishment that comes with being part of something bigger than ourselves."
"It's not just my name or Donald Trump's name on the ballot, it's the kind of country we want," she said. "Look, tomorrow night this election will end, but I want you to understand our work together will be just beginning."
She called again for unity, and for voters to "repair the breaches" that have come to light over the course of the election.
"We have to bridge the divides in this country," Clinton said. "We've got to be willing to start listening to each other again, respecting each other again."
"We all have a role to play in building that better future for our country and for each of you," she said.
Madonna performed a surprise concert for Clinton in Washington Square Park last night.

The Guardian reports:
“This concert is about unifying us,” said Madonna as she took to the stage, clutching a red guitar and flanked by a musician and her son David. “How are we going to keep America great?
“We are going to elect a president who does not discriminate against women, who does not discriminate against the LGBT community, who does not discriminate against people of color, that does not want to build a wall around our country and separate us from the rest of the world. This is a concert about peace.”
Earnest speeches about love were peppered with a caustic sense of humour. When asked to turn to her right during a song, Madonna quipped: “I’m a top and a bottom, but I don’t do sides.” Later she said: “Let’s hope I get invited to the White House.”
“Tomorrow’s the big day,” Madonna told us, expertly pausing for cheers and responses. “Do we want to become the laughing stock of the planet?”
Finally, after a medley that merged Pete Seeger’s If I Had a Hammer into Madonna’s Rebel Heart, she called, “Save this country, vote for Hillary Clinton.”
Washington Post reports on Pantsuit Nation:
The idea was to get a bunch of Hillary Clinton supporters to wear pantsuits to the polls on Nov. 8. But “Pantsuit Nation” has become something more than that. In just 17 days of existence, the “secret” Facebook group has become the sudden online home of passionate Clinton enthusiasts. Yes, they exist, and so far, there are more than 1.9 million people in the invite-only space.
“There’s an awakening that’s happening with each new member — ‘Wow! I’m not alone,’ ” said Libby Chamberlain, the 33-year-old founder of the Facebook group, who lives in Maine with her husband and two small children. “There’s this understanding that something special is happening.”
One of the keys to Pantsuit Nation’s growth is its privacy. “As much as possible,” Chamberlain said, “it removes the risk that they’re going to be attacked for their views.” Posting, say, on Twitter about supporting Clinton has been “an invitation for harassment” from all sides of online Clinton opposition. Posts on Pantsuit Nation are moderated, and moderators remove negative comments about any candidate. What’s left is a river of positive testimony.
And I close with the writer that I’ve included most often in HNV over the past seventeen months.

Melissa McEwan writes for Shareblue:
She is the most qualified candidate ever to seek the presidency, and she is unparalleled in her command of issues both foreign and domestic. She has gathered a colossal amount of experience, and she has done her homework.
She has campaigned relentlessly, making speeches until her voice nearly gave out, and drove herself to exhaustion making appearances even when she had pneumonia.
She has gone on a listening tour, held large rallies, done intimate town halls, met with small groups of people at their businesses, at schools, at community organizations, at places of worship.
She has met with, and talked to, and listened to, and taken selfies with countless people across the country. She has shaken thousands of hands, heard thousands of personal stories, written notes to people she has met, inquired about how to help those in need.
She has said, over and over, that she will be a president for the people who vote for her, and for the people who do not.
She has told her supporters, again and again, that she does not take their support, their donations, and their votes for granted.
She has, in sum, worked for every single vote.
That is not a candidate who feels “entitled” to anything. That is a candidate who knows she has to work for the office she seeks, and has done everything she can to earn it.

Monday, November 7, 2016

State of the Race: 1 Day To Go


If the polls are correct, tomorrow we're going to elect the first woman president in the 240-year history of the United States.
There are more, but they all show Clinton ahead. However, none of it matters if you don't vote.

My personal hunch is that Hillary's margin will be larger than expected due to a few reasons:

  • Superior Democratic ground game
  • Unexpectedly large GOP crossover to Hillary, especially among women
  • Shockingly massive turnout among non-white voters
  • Late shift among final deciders due to Trump's dramatic unqualifications for the job (i.e. nuclear codes) and Comey's "in the clear" letter

There's no telling what the final margins will be and what kind of Congress we'll get. But after two years of supporting this amazing candidate during tremendous highs, distressing lows, and everything in between...I'm personally planning on one hell of a party around 11pm ET tomorrow.

"I'm Hillary Clinton...and One Last Time...I Approve This Message"



The final Hillary Clinton ad of 2016 is playing across the nation this evening.

Hillary HQ's Final Electoral Vote Predictions!

Well, it's time to pick a president! Hard to believe, but here we are. And that means it's time for a final electoral vote prediction.

However, I'm having trouble settling on just one map! So in addition to the official prediction, I'm also including two more: worst-case scenario and best-case scenario. I expect neither of these other two maps to actually occur, but one is the emergency firewall and the other is a stretch goal in case of an extra-large landslide.

Got it? Okay, let's start with the ugly:

WORST-CASE SCENARIO

Yikes! Too close to the apocalypse. Way too close. But still, disaster averted.

Basically, the blue wall holds but with PA, MI and NH closer than expected. VA and CO hold on just as the Clinton campaign expects. And NV's early vote has simply been too stellar...it's safe.

To make clear once again, I don't expect to see this map. FL's early vote looks amazing, NC looks very promising, and OH is looking pretty good too. But even in this worst-case scenario, Hillary is the next president.

Now let's get to the good stuff:

BEST CASE SCENARIO

Oh, I want to see this map to happen so bad! 

I know it might look out-there at first, but believe it or not I tried to restrain myself a bit in this scenario. The only three states I chose to really go out on a limb for are TX, AK and SC.

Readers of Hillary HQ know that Texas has been a pet project of mine for a long time, and I'm thrilled at the massive turnout and enthusiasm we are seeing across the state. I always thought that it would take the bottom falling out of Trump in order for him to lose Texas. That isn't happening in these final days, apparently. However, Latino turnout is through the roof across the nation and it's hard to know what amount of GOP crossover vote for Hillary will happen. Texas seems ripe for both. Therefore, I'm not throwing in the towel! In this optimistic scenario, Clinton wins at around 2am by 0.2%.

Alaska as a blue state? Now that would be a surreal way to end the night. It seems kinda crazy, but a recent Alaska-based poll had Clinton ahead by four. That shouldn't be ignored, so let's throw it in there!

Finally, there's South Carolina, a state that has received barely any attention despite being stuck right in-between NC and GA. I'm including it because it has somewhat similar demographics as its neighbors and the lack of good recent polls in the state (though SurveyMonkey now has it as Trump +2). And also because I just really want both coasts to be totally, beautifully blue. It's my wildest guess, but there it is.

Also, I have Clinton pulling out an Iowa win while still falling short in Utah.

For all this to (maybe) happen, Hillary will probably need to win by 10 or more points nationwide. It's possible, but unlikely.

Finally, here's the official Hillary HQ electoral map prediction...the one I am most expecting to happen in real life on Tuesday night:

HILLARY HQ PREDICTION

This is the Obama 2008 map minus Indiana but plus Arizona and Georgia. 

The two states I'm least sure about are Iowa and Georgia. Iowa isn't looking great right now, but the early vote and mixed polling make me wonder. Still, I'm giving it to Trump in the end...barely. Trump could easily win Georgia, but I'm giving it to Clinton due to great early vote numbers, superior organization, and some last-minute momentum. If she wins there, it'll probably be by less than a point.

Oh yeah, and Arizona turns blue...though that'll be close as well.

So there you have it: a map to keep you from totally freaking out, a dream map to aim for, and my best true guess.

We'll check back on Wednesday to see what I got right! If you have any of your own guesses, kudos or objections let me know in the comments below.

(maps via 270toWin.com)

Natural Social Science: A mini study of voter reasoning and behavior

Guest post by Anna Shane, PhD


There are social science experiments that would never pass current ‘protection of human subjects’ review boards, but which occur naturally. For example, no human subject committee today would permit the fake Trump-rally design, that would film ordinary people’s behavior after being encouraged to menace their fellow citizens. Humans today would be protected from participating in an experiment that tricked them into admitting under which circumstances they would choose to hire an unqualified sexual predator over a highly qualified feminist. Moreover, no researcher could have designed a study that came close to providing the wealth of predictive data gathered during the primary-season polls, and then had the chance to compare their predictive data with actual voter behavior (let alone have been able to pay for it).

Predicting how groups reason, and how group reasoning responds to unanticipated events, is best studied with the ‘longitudinal in-depth interview design’. It’s an expensive model and requires good guesses about what the researcher will care about ten or more years down the road. For this model the social science trick is identifying subjects who are representative of their group, and who won’t drop out, and who don’t mind explaining.

In natural social science this can be achieved by having friends who aren’t all the same.

In 2007 I selected four friends and regularly debriefed them regarding their views about Hillary Clinton. While we won’t know for sure if my data proves predictive until Tuesday night, I provide that data here, as a thank you to Hillary HQ and my new friend Scan.

This is a summary of the data from Dr. Shane’s 4-person natural social science study:

Old-School Reagan Republicans

My late best college friend Carole married Tom, and I have known him more than fifteen years. Tom is in his 70’s, a life-long Republican, and a devout Catholic. He is now retired but he worked in various scientific fields. He grew up in Minneapolis, and he embodies that work-hard, invent-the-tool-you-need ethic, which gives some the impression they are entirely self-made. He first met Reagan at some local event when Reagan was still governor of California, and he told me he didn’t wish to be impressed by an actor, but that he was very impressed. He told me that if Cruz or Trump won the Republican nomination, he’d be voting for Hillary.

Hispanics

I met my friend Blanca about twelve years ago. She is married and has two sons now old enough to vote. She was born in Mexico, and her husband is third generation Hispanic. She is a Christian who does good deeds; she mentors teenage girls, she cooks for church events and she takes meals to the homebound. She is kind and generous. Many years ago she told me that Hillary is widely appreciated in the Hispanic community because of Hillary’s good deeds, for example helping get visas to visit ill family members. Blanca told me most everyone knew some story about how Hillary had gotten involved in helping them or someone they knew. Blanca told me last year about the Hispanic voter registration drive through the churches, that was fueled by Donald’s anti-Mexican rhetoric. She told me Hispanic turnout would not be as high for the primary, because new voters weren’t sure if the nominee who could best beat Donald were Hillary or Bernie, and so many chose to stay out of it. Blanca told me that only snooty pale Hispanics back Republicans, and that Cuban’s don’t identify as Hispanic because they fall under a separate immigration policy. She told me that all other Hispanics are motivated both to vote for Hillary and to vote against Donald.

Libertarians


The third subject is my other best college friend, Denny, who ended up teaching English at an east coast military academy and marrying a schoolteacher niece of Jerry Fallwell; they have two daughters and three grandchildren. He identifies as libertarian and he voted for Obama. He has been disgusted by Donald’s tone, but he’d also been concerned about the emails, specifically what was ‘hidden,’ as it made no logical sense to him that her emails could be such a big deal if what he saw was all there was. He first planned to sit this one out but decided to vote for Hillary after the debates. Right after Comey’s “October surprise,” Denny wrote to me, saying Comey should be prosecuted.

Successful women who work in the media

The fourth is Maureen Dowd, who I have never met but who I know from her self-report and from private communications, that began when we both agreed that there were no WMD in Iraq and that Bush was really scary. She once used a joke I gave her; after Bush nominated Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court, I wrote for her: “Who is next, Caligula's horse?” Dowd has been in the media her adult life. She comes from an Irish Catholic family with right-wingers and hard workers. She works for the NYT which has an anti-Clinton bias, that is denied but undeniable. Dowd stood up to power when she wrote about Judy Miller, Woman of Mass Destruction, but she is the same as the others when it comes to Hillary. Her personal friends wish she’d knock it off, but she sincerely believes that Hillary is the cartoon the media sees, and yesterday she went so far as to use the example of the private server to claim Hillary is paranoid.

I know for sure how three will vote, and I assume Maureen will vote for Hillary too, although she told me she isn’t allowed to say.

The Republican Tom is just one vote, he will vote for Hillary because she is qualified and he can trust her to make evidence-based decisions and best-expert decisions. He’s been long impressed by her wonk and her work ethic, plus she is a Methodist like his late wife, so he’s voting against Trump but glad to vote for Hillary.

Denny’s wife and daughters would have voted for Hillary however Denny chose to vote, but Denny will join them in voting for the girl, to vote against Trump and to vote his outrage over the way he has come to realize Hillary has been unfairly bashed, by some ‘powerful’ men, abetted by the media.

Blanca, her husband and two sons will vote for Hillary, because they know her policies and they know her. Blanca is an activist in her community and she sees the need for a Hispanic voting block.

Conclusions:


Competence as a critical issue crosses party lines for those who eschew radical economy-harming ideology. (Tom advised me that if I think Trump might win, I should get out of the market before it’s too late).

Hispanic Americans are getting political, they have woken to the need to deliver a vote in order to end profiling, get good and safe schools, and reliable health care, and sane immigration policies.

Libertarians aren’t all the same, some of them actually believe in equality, and are motivated by a love for truth, and by the freedom to be different.

The media as personified by the liberal New York Times remains a retro boy’s club. The few media women who have been elevated to positions of influence identify with the phallus, and not with their own kind.

We will all see how it plays out, starting tomorrow.

Anna Shane, PhD, is a Lacanian psychoanalyst and feminist

VIDEO: Hillary Clinton and Khizr Khan in Manchester, NH (11/6/16)



Boston Globe:
The father of a Muslim U.S. Army soldier killed in Iraq rebuked Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Sunday as an embarrassment to the United States, as a somber and reflective Hillary Clinton pledged to work for ‘‘healing and reconciliation’’ after the election.

Khizr Khan, making a campaign trail debut after coming to prominence at the Democratic National Convention, retold the story of his son Humayun Khan. The younger Khan died in 2004 when he told his men to stay back as he approached a suspicious car. He was the only American to die in the explosion.

Khan waved and raised a fist in the air before introducing Clinton, whom he praised for her experience and temperament. He told a supportive crowd that after he spoke at the convention and Trump attacked him as a Democratic shill, he and his family had received thousands of letters and messages of support.

‘‘This election will decide the future of America and the future of the world,’’ Khan said. ‘‘On one hand, we have Donald Trump and his policies of hate, exclusion, intimidation and division,’’ he said. ‘‘On the other hand, we have Hillary Rodham Clinton and her lifelong public service to the country.’’
Watch the speeches from Khan and Clinton above. Truly uplifting!

Hillary News & Views 11.7: Closing Argument, Get Out the Vote, Comprehensive Platform

Photo courtesy HFA

Guest post by swiffy


Today we begin with Hillary’s closing argument and agenda for the first 100 days in USA Today.
Everything I’ve done, as first lady, senator, or secretary of State, I’ve done by listening to people and looking for common ground, even with people who disagree with me. And if you elect me on Tuesday, that’s the kind of president I’ll be….
First, we will put forward the biggest investment in new jobs since World War II. We’ll invest in infrastructure and manufacturing to grow our economy for years to come. We’ll produce enough renewable energy to power every home in America within a decade….
Second, we will introduce comprehensive immigration reform legislation. The last president to sign comprehensive immigration reform was Ronald Reagan, and it was a priority for George W. Bush….
Third, to break the gridlock in Washington, we need to get secret, unaccountable money out of our politics. It’s drowning out the voices of the American people. So within my first 30 days, I will introduce a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United….
Fourth, we need to get started on end-to-end criminal justice reform. Too many people have been sent away for far too long for non-violent offenses. I believe our country will be stronger and safer when everyone has respect for the law and everyone is respected by the law.
There’s so much more we need to do together, and we certainly won’t get it all done in the first 100 days. But we’re going to roll up our sleeves and get to work for American families — and I’ll never, ever quit.
It looks like the last Stronger Together rally will be in Philadelphia, PA this afternoon featuring President Barack Obama and Michele Obama together with Bill, Chelsea, and Hillary Clinton.
Everyone in the campaign has been working furiously in the last days.
Fox reports Chelsea was already in the Philadelphia area to Get Out the Vote.
Loud, passionate cheers as Chelsea Clinton took the stage before an intimate crowd of inspired Democrats in the city of Chester.
“I know that if we keep rooting this election in what really is at stake - for or families - or communities our country we will win.”
Committed volunteers planned to spend all day canvassing Chester, targeting registered Democrats who may not have made it to the polls in the past.
Hillary also started yesterday in the Philadelphia area, where she attended church at Mt. Airy Church of God in Christ. CBS reports:
Loud, passionate cheers as Chelsea Clinton took the stage before an intimate crowd of inspired Democrats in the city of Chester.
“I know that if we keep rooting this election in what really is at stake - for or families - or communities our country we will win.”
Committed volunteers planned to spend all day canvassing Chester, targeting registered Democrats wThe Democratic presidential candidate made a surprise stop at a local church to give a speech.
Clinton started by expressing her gratitude to church officials, and singled out New Jersey US Senator Corey Booker, who quoted the late Maya Angelou. Clinton said she misses the outspoken poet, who’d have a lot of choice things to say about this election.
She called on those gathered to vote, and to reach out to those who might need help getting to the polls, saying the stakes are too high to get it wrong on Election Day.
She also stopped by Cedar Park Cafe, chatting with diners and posing for a few photos.ho may not have made it to the polls in the past.
Clinton then traveled to Cleveland, OH, where LeBron James introduced her to her audience.
 She amazingly went on to a further stop in Manchester, NH, where she appeared together with Khizr Khan.
 Bill Clinton was campaigning hard for Hillary in Flint and Lansing, MI, as the Detroit News reports.
Former President Bill Clinton made a passionate case for his wife Sunday in Michigan, seeking to energize voter turnout efforts for Hillary Clinton with speeches at two predominately African-American churches in Flint and a union hall in the state’s capital city.
“Don’t let people tell you our best days are behind us,” Clinton told a full house at UAW Local 652 headquarters in Lansing, where he touted a Friday jobs report showing the country added 161,000 jobs in October while wages grew an average of 10 cents.
“We don’t need to go back and reconfigure the social totem pole the way it was 50 years ago. It did not work for a lot of people. Hillary’s for tearing down all the totem poles so we’ll be stronger together.
The amazing Hillary Speeches site, put together its full list of commentary on Hillary’s Comprehensive Platform, and it is a wonderful source of all kinds of policy details that she has put together over the campaign. Here are just the entries since October 19.
Bonus Tweets:
This is the last day of the campaign before polls open everywhere for voting tomorrow! It has been such a long haul since the earliest days, and many unable to vote early have been waiting patiently to elect the first woman as President. Make your plan to vote!
Have a terrific day, everyone!
*** SUPPORT HILLARY CLINTON ***

(originally posted at Daily Kos)