Thursday, December 3, 2015

Clinton Edges Sanders in New Hampshire PPP Poll

A couple of months from the first contests, the picture on the Democratic side remains about the same in the state that follows Iowa by eight days.

According to PPP, the New Hampshire race continues to be very close overall with Clinton edging Sanders 44%-42% and O'Malley bringing up the rear as usual with 8%.

But there's something tricky about this particular contest that shouldn't be skipped over:
It's the open nature of New Hampshire's primary that's making it so competitive. Clinton leads Sanders 48/39 among actual Democrats. But independents are a third of the electorate, and Sanders leads Clinton by an identical 48/39 spread with them to make it so close overall. 
In other words, it's all about turnout.

If the unions and Democratic establishment turn out New Hampshire Democrats in force... Hillary's got a really good shot at making a clean sweep of the early states and locking up the nomination early. And if you throw in some momentum from her Iowa victory...it might just be a sure thing.

In fact, you can consider that my official prediction at this point.

Just in case you're interested in the GOP side: Trump is a "cult-like" figure who still leads big, Cruz is now a distant second, Christie is showing signs of life, Rubio is stuck in neutral, and Carson, Bush and Kasich have all dropped. Apparently there are a few other people in the race but they aren't doing very well there either.

6 comments:

  1. Hillary is my choice! Just a comment about Cruz, he was born in Canada................he can't be President! It's not if you are a naturalized citizen which I became when I chose my citizenship when I was 18. I was born in Japan to American citizens and traveled on my Mother's passport. My birth was recorded in the American consulate, however, I wasn't a citizen until later. I've always known I can't be President. By the way, Cruz NEVER had dual citizenship, neither Canada or America recognize dual citizenship. It's not against the constitution to run for office, it's just you can't SERVE as President. Cruz, by the way, didn't become an American citizen until just before filing to run. His birth wasn't recorded in the American consulate in Canada. He can't be President, he's Canadian, by birth!

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    1. I'm not so sure about that...though if Trump wants to try to make it an issue, he should go for it!
      http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2015/mar/26/ted-cruz-born-canada-eligible-run-president-update/

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  2. With the pizazz on the Rep side--this could help Hillary in NH. A lot of Independents might feel that she has it sewn up, so they'll elect to cast a ballot in the Rep contest instead of for Sanders. Good news.

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  3. Great ideas here! I agree, both with the premise that it's about Democratic turnout and the prediction that it will make the difference and a win for Hillary. On facebook I'm in touch with a lot of individual Hillary volunteers, and they are working their butts of in NH. One lady I talked to actually lives in Vermont, but is an active participant in the NH effort.

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    1. I'm positive there is a ton of hard work and enthusiasm at play in NH for Hillary that is under the radar. Like in 2008, people might just be surprised on election night!

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