Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Momentum! Clinton Leads in NH, GA, FL and Nationwide

Are the "Hillary Leads!" headlines starting to get boring after those recent amazing Iowa polls?

Didn't think so!

There are a few more out today, and it's clear that Clinton has the momentum with less than three months until the first votes are cast.

First up, Monmouth is showing a big turnaround from their last poll and now has Clinton leading Sanders by 3 points in her most challenging state:
Hillary Clinton has taken a slim 3 point lead over Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll of Granite State voters likely to participate in February’s Democratic primary. Sanders retains his sizable advantage among registered independents and new voters, men, and younger voters. However, Clinton has made significant gains in the past two months with registered Democrats, women, and older voters.
Currently, Clinton holds a 48% to 45% lead over Bernie Sanders in the 2016 cycle’s first primary. This reverses the lead Sanders held in Monmouth’s September poll. He led Clinton by 43% to 36% when Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, and Jim Webb were included in the poll, and by an even larger 49% to 41% margin when the supporters of those three candidates were reallocated to their second choices. Support for Martin O’Malley (3%) in the current poll is basically unchanged from two months ago.
If rank-and-file Democrats turn out in force in New Hampshire, Hillary will win that state and be well on her way to locking up the nomination. After a decisive win in Iowa, don't be surprised if that's exactly what happens.

Super Tuesday (March 1) comes just a few days after the South Carolina primary, and it's also shaping up to be decisive. Georgia is one of the states to vote that day, and Hillary is currently ahead by a staggering 57 points:
The 11Alive News poll shows Hillary Clinton with a crushing lead, with 73 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters. Bernie Sanders follows with 16 percent support, then Martin O'Malley with 4 percent. Those results lead SurveyUSA pollsters to conclude "Sanders is not today competitive in Georgia".
"If you're at 73 percent with a year to go in the campaign, you're feeling really good about Georgia," Democrat strategist Tharon Johnson told 11Alive's Jennifer Leslie. Johnson says Clinton's camp will need Georgia--for votes and money--if Sanders has a strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire.
"They've got to prepare themselves for a big showdown on Super Tuesday, and Georgia is going to be very prevalent on that day," he said.
Florida's primary arrives two weeks later, and there we see an almost-as-staggering 42 point lead for the frontrunner:

Other goodies in this poll: Clinton is edging out local boys Bush and Rubio in general election matchups...and on the Republican side, Bush has slid down to a distant fifth place at 7%. In Florida. That's just pathetic.

Finally, the new NBC/WSJ national poll has Clinton leading Sanders 62%-31%, a gain of 16 points since mid-September (53%-38%).

Disclaimer: Yes, we've got a long way to go and there will certainly be several more major challenges along the way. Complacency is not an option and every vote must be fought for until Hillary wins the nomination. That said, after what we went through last summer (and well before that, actually), a little celebration after an amazing October is okay.

Plus...some good morale for the home stretch can't hurt too much, now can it?


  1. Some might make the case that polls in states other than IA and NH aren't really relevant, but I think they're of major importance. Undecided voters in the early states have got realize that a vote for Bernie is all but a lost cause, and would only delay the start of the General election battle.

  2. Fox News was going gaga this morning about the Q poll where Hillary is behind the rather bizarre Dr. Carson--they did not mention of course that the sampling skewed Rep by 2 and 1/2 points. In the last two pres elections Dems out performed Reps at the polls by an average of 6 1/2 pts. They did NOT mention the NBC poll where Hillary is doing very well. It's AMAZING to me how so called "journalists will allow Reps on the air to LIE. For ex on CNN last night one said that Hillary is "under investigation" by the FBI. Uh, she has NEVER been "under investigation". Yet the press offers no correction to these false statements. I also find it bizarre that HRC could be ahead of Sanders by 32 pts in NBC poll but only 18 in Q poll. Me thinks there is a anti-Clinton bias in Q polls.

  3. Unless you believe that the networks never deceive people, with polls or anything else; of course there's an anti-Clinton bias in Q polls. What's more discouraging, is there doesn't appear to be anything anyone can do about it. We ought to be able, to, at least, demand that more other polls be in evidence when media show us their pre-selected polls. I don't doubt that most media are distinctly against Hillary, for all the reasons that corporate controlled network media would be expected to be. I often point out, that you cannot find a single pro-Hillary network media professional that supports Hillary. In spite of the nonsense you hear from right-wing sources, media are inclined against democrats in general, and progressive democrats in particular. Right-wingers continue their ranting about a "liberal" media, but this, and antagonism against dems cannot, both, be true, and right-wingers do this to create even more confusion in the political debate. If you believe media are liberal, tell me how you wish to put it to a test, and we'll proceed. Media, and their anti-dem bias is, as I see it, not something we can wisely tolerate. I won't take a single polling point in Hillary's favor, for granted. Media can create great danger, for even the most successful candidates, if left unguarded.

  4. Quinnipiac are making themselves look more and more ridiculous with every poll. NO ONE in their right mind believes that Ben Carson is beating Hillary by 10 points. I mean, that's just idiotic...and as detached from reality as Ben Carson is himself.

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