Friday, November 13, 2015

In the Endorsement Race, Clinton Dominates in Historic Fashion


Have you visited The Endorsement Primary at FiveThirtyEight yet? If not, you should keep an eye on it...and the sentence at the top of the page tells you why:
"In presidential primaries, endorsements have been among the best predictors of which candidates will succeed and which will fail."
The site includes a running list of endorsements from elected officials for each candidate and assigns points based on a simple system:
Of course, not all endorsements are equally valuable. We use a simple weighting system: 10 points for governors, 5 points for U.S. senators and 1 point for U.S. representatives (there are roughly five times as many representatives as senators and 10 times as many representatives as governors).
So, what does the Democratic endorsement race look like with less than three months until Iowa? Well actually... there's not much of a race.


In other words: On this scale, Hillary is currently beating Bernie by more than 20,000%!

Clinton is already winning 71% of all possible Democratic endorsement points. As FiveThirtyEight's Harry Enten explains, this is historic and possibly unprecedented:
Clinton has amassed a higher share of intra-party support before the Iowa caucuses than any presidential candidate since 1980, as far back as our data goes. 
That’s more than the 68 percent of possible endorsement points that George W. Bush had on the day of the Iowa caucuses in 2000. It’s nearly three times as much support as Clinton had on the day of the Iowa caucuses in 2008, when her closest comparison was Walter Mondale, who barely won the 1984 Democratic primary.
Of course, the amazing thing about Clinton’s current run is that the Iowa caucuses are 79 days away. She still has time to pick up more endorsements. Indeed, Clinton has been endorsed by more governors and members of Congress in the past three weeks than all the other Democratic and Republican presidential candidates combined.
 Which leads to this conclusion:
...barring something unforeseen, Clinton’s going to be the Democratic nominee.
As a reminder, these elected officials are also part of the massive legion of superdelegates that Hillary has already amassed on her way to the nomination.

I've said it before and I'll say it again and again: This is no time to get complacent, and there never will be a time to get complacent until the polls close on election day next November.

That said...this is just one more reason to believe that Clinton's in the driver's seat on the road to becoming the first woman to win the nomination of a major party in the entire history of the United States.

Pretty cool huh?

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