Tuesday, October 27, 2015

STUNNER: Clinton Leads Sanders by 41 Points in Iowa Post-Benghazi Poll (Updated w/ 2nd Crazy Poll)


Holy moly!

Folks, if the first post-Benghazi committee hearing result is any indication, this race is very close to being over. According to a new Monmouth University poll, Hillary Clinton has opened up a 41-point lead over Bernie Sanders in Iowa!
In the first Monmouth University Poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers in the 2016 cycle, Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 41 point lead over Bernie Sanders. This is the first poll conducted after Clinton’s appearance before the Benghazi Committee and Joe Biden’s announcement that he would not mount a presidential campaign.
Clinton currently garners the support of 65% of likely Democratic caucusgoers to 24% for Bernie Sanders. Martin O’Malley clocks in at 5% and Larry Lessig has 1% of the vote.
You read that right: 65%-24%!

And stuff like this is just insane:
Clinton enjoys a large lead over Sanders among both male (55% to 33%) and female (73% to 16%) voters. 
Obviously, we should wait for some more polls in the coming days before we get too excited...but for now?

#HillYes!

UPDATE: Well that didn't take long.

The Monmouth poll might not be much of an outlier at all. Another brand new Iowa poll from Loras College has Hillary up by 38 points, 62% to 24%! And this one was in the field from Oct 19-22, after the debate but mostly before the Benghazi hearing. Wow.

11 comments:

  1. Even without the Benghazi hearing, I think Hillary's lead would've gone up nicely with Biden no longer in the picture. But this is much bigger than I expected it to be. Other polls likely won't have the lead as large, but I think she seems to be in the driver's seat in Iowa now.

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    1. A new poll backs up your theory! See update.

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    2. BTW, this is probably why Sanders started to go negative on Hillary (drawing sharper contrasts) at the J-J Dinner. His polling already showed a fundamental shift in the race.

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  2. The downside is that now we'll have headlines about how Bernie is gaining ground. (She's on the ropes, now she's only ahead by 35 points!)

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  3. It almost looks like the race has reverted to the way it was when Hillary first declared, and before Sanders got on a bit of a roll. Voters began to have doubts about Hillary because of the incessant bad press she was getting for months and started to look at Sanders and Biden. It's as though they just needed to be reminded of the reasons they were for Hillary in the first place - that's she's a flat-out awesome candidate. I have to laugh when Repubs say the Dems are "settling" for Hillary.

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  4. There were 4 spectacular polls released this afternoon--the two out of IA BUT also a PPP poll in NC (Hillary by (only LOL) 37--and a Clemson Univ Poll had Hillary ahead also by 37 in SC. NONE of these polls were even MENTIONED in the 4-5 block on MSNBC. They were mentioned by Tapper on CNN (interviewing Axelrod) and Axelrod said the race in IA is "very close" and Hillary was only up by "6". I guess he meant the Des Moines Reg poll (she was up by 7 actually). He was apparently unaware of the Loras Clooge IA poll BACKING up the Monmouth Poll. My point is the extreme media bias against Hillary still exists--and people get on national TV and spout drivel.

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  5. Hillary's campaign has always prepared for Iowa to be close, which is why they have an outstanding ground game. No matter how big her lead is, they're taking absolutely no chances.

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  6. Even the Clinton campaign says the polls are outliers, lol.

    https://twitter.com/jmpalmieri/status/659101528389718017

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  7. She is probably ahead, but caucuses are inherently volatile.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/28/upshot/why-an-iowa-poll-is-unfair-to-bernie-sanders.html?_r=0

    The screens on the Loras/Monmouth polls are very tight, only asking registered Democrats that have voted in the last 4 years, compared to most other polls that poll independents (who can switch last minute to Democrat and caucus).

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    1. Did the Monmouth poll use the same narrow screen previously? Then at least you'd be comparing comparing apples to apples to see if there's movement for Hillary within that poll from month to month.

      One thing that has stayed constant in 2015 is her campaign's emphasis on a really strong ground presence in Iowa. That wasn't the case in 2008, and they won't make that mistake again.

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