Thursday, September 24, 2015

Wow, Quinnipiac Really Does Suck at Polling

Ugh. This is getting tiresome.

After a string of good polling days, today we have another Quinnipiac poll with horrible news for Hillary Clinton. This time, it's general election numbers where she's losing to everyone except Trump, and even then it's a bare 2-point lead.

The reason for this result is obvious, however: their sample is 31% Republican, 30% Democrat and 29% Independent. Who the other 10% are is anyone's guess. So this sample is +1% R whereas the last two presidential elections had electorates of +7% and +6%. Are they really expecting a sudden 8% shift or so to the Republicans in 2016? Is anyone in their right mind expecting that?

If we look at the Clinton vs Fiorina crosstabs as an example, the problem becomes even more obvious.
Clinton is losing even though her party support is stronger and they are tied among indies. As a reminder, Obama lost indies in 2012 but still won an electoral landslide over Romney. There are simply a lot more more Democrats than Republicans in the modern American electorate...and if the party faithful turn out, it would take a dramatic shift among indies for the Republican to win.

With their continuing string of outlier polls and opinion-stuffed press releases continuing unabated, the news media should really consider whether it's a good idea to take Quinnipiac seriously anymore. They are really good at producing clickbait numbers that feed anti-Hillary narratives, but their actual polling sucks.

4 comments:

  1. Hey if you just looked at the Reps/Dems sampling it's 56% (R) and 44% (D). NO ONE among the talking heads will mention this. So I am wondering why the Clinton or Sanders' camps do not.

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    1. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us09242015_demos_ui47mfb.pdf

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