Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Clinton Leads Sanders by 21 Points in New Iowa Poll


Hey everybody...Scan here. I'm back from my three-week road trip vacation and it looks like nothing has changed!

According to a brand new poll out of Iowa from PPP:
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is in pretty good shape. She leads with 43% to 22% for Bernie Sanders, 17% for Joe Biden, 3% for Martin O'Malley and Jim Webb, and 2% for Lincoln Chafee. Among Biden's voters 43% say Clinton would be their second choice to only 15% for Sanders. Reallocate them to their second choice and Clinton would lead Sanders 50/25, almost identical to the 52/25 lead we found for her last month when we didn't include Biden.
While I was gone, I still checked Twitter occasionally...and I noticed that the media very quickly decided to run with the idea that Hillary was suddenly losing in Iowa based on yet another crazy Quinnipiac result and an online poll. Frankly, I was pretty glad to be hanging out on the beaches and mountains of the western United States instead of worrying about that stuff too much.

When we consider this new poll result along with the very strong national numbers from CNN yesterday, it sure looks like Democrats still love Hillary and a stupid zombie scandal about email didn't come close to changing that.

PS: Look out for my vacation photos next weekend!

19 comments:

  1. I saw somewhere that if Biden runs, the state he's going to go all-in on is SC, so he won't even be competing in Iowa.

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    1. I still doubt that he will enter. Recent Hillary poll numbers won't encourage him.

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  2. I don't like that the poll is 80% landline. I love cheerleading but important to be realistic too. I doubt a lot of Sanders supporters have landlines. The other polls that show a close race poll cell phones (Marist was only half landline).

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    1. This poll matches the vast majority of Iowa polls over the past year. PPP is a really good pollster.

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    2. They are, but especially for a caucus, it seems they aren't capturing a lot of the same energy that pollers that call cells are seeing.
      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

      Just looking at the past year here, she is at +21 with PPP, but +27 with them early August and +48 in April.

      All that I'm saying is that it's hard to definitely say that Clinton is safe and all the other polls are wrong.
      http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/florida/2015/09/8577017/private-call-clinton-fundraisers-fret-over-email-fiasco-and-new-beng
      "There is a tightening going on. But we’re definitely not tied or trailing in Iowa". Even press secretary Brian Fallon is admitting things are tightening.

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    3. No one is saying Clinton is "safe" in Iowa. But she's doing pretty damn well!

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  3. Interesting, but since every other poll shows her either within the margin of error or slightly behind, this is an outlier.

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    1. No, all the polls all year long showed her on top in Iowa except the Quinnipiac tie and an online poll. There is nothing surprising about this result and it's more likely that Bernie has never been in the lead in this state.

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    2. All polls tighten. But since Hillary is concerned, standards usually, routinely applied, no loger apply. Her enemies require standards that are pure fantasy. It's as if, when it's Hillary, we're compelled to assume, that she must meet a standard that can only be applied to an infallible God.

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  4. This is a bogus poll since it used 80% land lines. The younger generations are more in support of Sanders, yet most of them don't even have a land line. Very misleading and skewed results. #Bernie2016 #feelthebern

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    1. This is the same poll methodology they've been doing for every state and nationwide, including when they showed Bernie on top in NH. I guess their methods were reliable then but not now? #FeelTheReality

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    2. If what your saying is true, it means Hillary is in serious trouble.

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  5. Gonna be harder to spin it when Hillary is behind in Iowa by double digits. :)

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    1. That's one of the way we know you're a republican. It shows, when you want to destroy someone (Hillary), much more, than you want to support someone (Sanders).

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  6. Welcome back Scan! Looks like some Bernie people found your site.

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  7. Guess where Hillary is doing terribly, abysmally even. Among independants. Independants are riding hard with Bernie Sanders and who would guess that nearly 43% of the population identifies as independant? So for Hill to win she better have more than 20-30 percent in an exclusively democratic poll, RELIGOUSLY. Because if Bernie is pulling HALF the indepenant vote and Hill is pulling 8% as recent polls indicate...let's just say it won't be pretty for Shillary. Amd when people start to wrap their heads around the FACT that Shillary was initmately involved in crafting the TPP you will only see her numbers PLUMMET and Sanders ascend. #teamberniesanders #feelthebern #bernieorbust

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  8. Hey Unknown, try using spellcheck. You might sound a little more educated when yer quotin' all those 'stistics.

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  9. This is a flat out lie as every poll puts Bernie ahead by 11% in Iowa. Just making information up now, Hillary?

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