|An actual possibility for Election Day 2016|
In the contest for the Democratic nomination, former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton maintains a wide lead, with 68 percent of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents saying they would vote for her today in a caucus or primary. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who is drawing big and enthusiastic crowds in many states, is in second, at 16 percent...
When Vice President Biden is included as a choice, Clinton is at 63 percent, Sanders at 14 percent and Biden is at 12 percent. Biden is not a declared candidate but has not said definitively that he will not run.
Clinton, who has highlighted the possibility of becoming the first female president in U.S. history, is far more popular among Democratic women than men, by almost 20 points. About 9 in 10 of her supporters say they are enthusiastic about her candidacy.Whether Biden jumps into the race or not makes little difference: Democrats want Hillary to be the nominee and it's going to be very hard to change that.
As far as the Republicans...who the hell knows what's going on? Donald Trump has a nice 11-point lead in this poll, but his boneheaded and offensive comments about John McCain might end up costing him in the days ahead. But don't be surprised if Republican voters like Trump enough for this to only be recoverable speed bump for the time being. Which is pretty amazing.
Where things get more interesting is in the general election matchups. Clinton has a nice 6-point lead over Bush in a two-way matchup, but look what happens if Trump becomes a third party option:
Nope. Trump is all about Trump and is not ruling out an independent run if he's not the Republican nominee, as you can see in the video below. So even if Republican voters choose a less embarrassing option at their convention, there's still a very real risk of him completely dooming the GOP as a whole in 2016 anyway.
So the big question becomes, does The Donald really have a fat enough ego and wallet to actually make a full-blown, self-funded independent run for President of the United States?
Do we really have to ask?