From the writers of the press release gleefully stating that Hillary Clinton was "wilting" in Virginia while their own poll simultaneously showed her surging into a solid lead...
From the guys who are somehow making Gravis Marketing look amazingly reliable right now...
...comes the first real Republican swing state blood bath poll of the 2016 campaign. Make sure you're sitting down, or ready to laugh (like I did) and check it out.
There are so many strange things that could be pointed out here, such as:
-Hillary has led Jeb in every single (non-Fox News) national poll for months, often by double digits. If all those results are accurate, this poll must have been taken in an alternate universe.These are just a few of the headscratchers. For more, check out this excellent post by Steve Singiser at Daily Kos.
-The party IDs in the samples are 2 to 8% more Republican than we saw in the last presidential election.
-Hillary's favorability in Iowa (33%) is so ridiculously dismal that even Rick Perry is doing better (36%).
-In the span of three months - for no apparent reason - Hillary's support among women in Virginia dropped by a whopping 16 points.
In the six months that Hillary HQ has been in existence, I've noticed something: Polls are coming out constantly and it can be hard to keep track of all of them, much less analyze them. To be perfectly honest, it can be exhausting. The good news is that the vast majority of these polls have ranged from decent to spectacular for our candidate, and even if there is an occasionally lousy poll, you usually only need to wait a day or two before there's another one that cheers you up.
So I'm going to let that happen and not lose any sleep over this one.
Take a look at one last thing from this new poll: The crosstabs of the Clinton vs Walker matchup in Virginia, where Walker leads by 3. You'll notice that Hillary is doing a little better with her party's faithful than Walker is doing with his, and the Indies are almost exactly split. Considering that the party ID is +1% Democrat (28% D - 27% R - 35% I), how in the world is Walker up by 3 points here? Even with the most generous of decimal rounding, it does not seem possible to this blogger who got a B in college business math.
So...calling all math nerds out there: If you can somehow get these Quinnipiac crosstabs to add up to a 3-point Walker win, please lay it out in the comments below. The Bush & Rubio numbers from Virginia also make about as much sense, if you'd like to see more.
Rest assured that I am more than willing to concede that I'm out of my league on this one if presented with enough evidence.