Thursday, July 30, 2015

Hillary's Remarkably Consistent Lead Among Democrats Continues

In Quinnipiac's latest national poll, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 55% to 17%, with Joe Biden third at 13%. If these numbers seem boringly consistent, you're onto something. Check out the last month or so of polls leading up to today:

Chart and graph via Huffington Post
As you can see, the new poll numbers are entirely in line with the last twelve. And with the exception of New Hampshire, Bernie's neighboring state, every other recent state poll verifies the trend. (Check out Iowa, Virginia and Illinois.)

But if we go back to the beginning of the year with a line graph, we can start to see a trend:

(Clinton=blue / Sanders=green / Biden=purple)
In January, the average was:
Clinton 60%
Biden 10%
Sanders 3%

And at the end of July its:
Clinton 57%
Biden 12%
Sanders 19%

Don't let the pundits fool you. Over the course of seven months, after all the phony scandals and Republican incoming fire, Hillary has only shed 3% of her support!

The story of the Sanders surge is a positive one for the entire Democratic Party: People like him and are responding to his important message, but he's not effectively changing the minds of Clinton supporters. This trajectory will be tough to dramatically change in the six months before the Iowa Caucuses.

However, there is a definite change in the dynamics on its way and it could occur at any moment.

What are your plans, Mr. Vice President?


  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

  2. Can someone tell me, how much of the current attack against Hillary, as far as her apparent drop in trustworthiness is concerned, is based on reality, and how much of it, is a media created fantasy. Whatever it is, it's affecting her poll numbers. What is Hillary doing about this situation?

    1. Well, the polls say what the say, but the narrative part comes in when favorability/trustworthiness is hyped above all else (ie, her steady leads over all opponents). The new ads may be a pushback on this, but whatever the case, her campaign is full of absolute pros with their eyes on the prize.