Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Hillary Leads Big in Illinois (PPP Poll)


This might not come as a shock, but it's looking like a certain Chicago-born candidate should have no trouble in Illinois.
(Hillary Clinton) is up by anywhere from 9 to 18 points against the GOP hopefuls. The Republicans who come closest to Clinton are Jeb Bush who trails by 9 at 48/39, Rand Paul who trails by 10 at 47/37, and Scott Walker who trails by 11 at 50/39. The GOPers who do the worst against Clinton are Donald Trump who's down 18 at 51/33, and Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee who each trail by identical 16 point margins at 51/35. In between are Ben Carson and Marco Rubio who each trail by 12 points at 49/37, Chris Christie who's down 14 at 49/35, and Carly Fiorina who trails by 15 at 49/34.
PPP also notes that Democrat Tammy Duckworth is shaping up to be a very strong challenger to Republican Senator Mark Kirk. I'm sure that I speak for a lot of Democrats when I say that if disabled Iraq War hero Duckworth wins President Obama's former Senate seat next year, it would a sweet and sentimental victory for our country.

Since Illinois will be solidly blue once again next year, the more important result for Hillary at this moment is her rock-solid, consistent lead across the board over Bernie Sanders in the primary.
On the Democratic side Clinton is dominant. She gets 60% to 23% for Sanders, with Martin O'Malley at 4%, Jim Webb at 3%, and Lincoln Chafee at 1% rounding out the field. Clinton gets at least 54% within every group we track by ideology, gender, race, and age with her support peaking among African Americans with whom she gets 76% and Hispanics with whom she gets 72%.
Time is running out for Sanders to make a significant dent in Clinton's prohibitive lead across the country...and I don't envy his position.

Also, as expected, the Republican field continues to be a disaster area with neighboring governor Walker at 23% to Trump's 18% and Bush's 11%...and everyone in the single digits. I don't envy any of their positions either.

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