Thursday, July 16, 2015

Hillary Leads All Republicans in Virginia (PPP Poll)

Lovin' it.
It was hinted at yesterday, and indeed there's good news today for Hillary Clinton in the crucial swing state of Virginia from PPP. Not only is she leading Bernie Sanders by 50 points (64%-14%) in the Democratic primary, but she's also leading every Republican too!
Virginia went for Barack Obama by 4-6 points in 2008 and 2012 and Hillary Clinton starts out similarly well positioned in the state, leading all of her potential Republican opponents by somewhere in the 4-12 point range. The GOP hopefuls who come the closest to Clinton are Ben Carson and Marco Rubio who each trail by 4 at 47/43, and Rand Paul and Scott Walker who each trail by 5 at 47/42. The Republican who does the worst in the state is native son Jim Gilmore who trails by 12 at 47/35. Also trailing by double digits are Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee at 49/39. In between are Chris Christie who trails by 6 at 45/39, Carly Fiorina and Ted Cruz who lag by 7 at 46/39 and 48/41 respectively, and Jeb Bush who's down by 8 at 46/38.
I could maybe see Rubio doing best against her in this state...but Carson? I just don't get it.

Despite the rough primary numbers for Bernie, there is some good news for him in this poll: He's actually competitive against the GOP in Virginia! This is a first for him in PPP's recent polls of swing states.
We also tested Bernie Sanders against the leading Republicans- he leads Trump 43/39, but trails Bush 40/39, Walker 39/38, and Rubio 40/38. On average Clinton performs a little under 7 points better than Sanders against the top quartet of GOPers in head to head match ups.
On the Republican side, Jeb leads by a little with Trump and Walker shortly behind and everyone else typically bunched up behind them. But who cares?

What matters is that the 2004 Kerry states plus Virginia, Nevada and New Mexico equals 270 electoral votes and President Hillary Rodham Clinton...with no other swing states required!

And Hillary is going to win Virginia, Nevada and New Mexico.


  1. Headline: Bernie gains ground in new poll in Virginia! (snark)

    1. Props where they are due: These are actually the best general election results he's ever gotten. Good for him. The -50% primary numbers currently prohibit him from getting that far though.