Monday, July 27, 2015

CNN & NBC Polls: Clinton Keeps On Leading

A few national and state polls came out yesterday and they all had good-to-great news for Hillary.

First off, a national CNN/ORC poll has Clinton up on Sanders by 37 points (56%-19%) and leading the Republican competition by anywhere from 5-16 points:

Graphs via 270toWin.com
One interesting thing about this poll is that it seems to be the first one that shows Sanders being competitive with the GOP. In fact, though he's essentially tied with Bush, he's actually beating Walker by 5 and Trump by 21 (more than Hillary)! Because it's so unusual, it will be interesting to see if these results for Bernie are an outlier or a trend...but for now, good for him and the liberal brand!

Right around the same time, NBC/Marist also came out with Iowa and New Hampshire polls. Bernie continues to show strength in his neighboring state (earning 34% to Hillary's 47%), but the most important result is from Iowa, where Hillary retains a strong 55%-26% lead. If Iowa goes Clinton's way on February 1st...the rest of the dominoes will likely fall in short order and she'll be the nominee in no time flat. (Note: NBC tested the Democratic field with and without Biden - and as he is unlikely to jump in, the numbers without him are presented here.)

By the way, the Iowa caucuses are now only six months away. Historic times are fast approaching.

On the Republican side the story is still Trump, who leads nationally and in New Hampshire while lingering just behind Walker in Iowa.

And it's still unbelievable and hilarious.

6 comments:

  1. I still seriously doubt Trump will win the nomination, but I don't think he's fading anytime soon.

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    1. That's a good guess. But really...this is insanity.

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  2. I doubt the closeness of Sanders. CNN polls are just crazy (the ones now, and the ones showing her leading everyone by double digits a few weeks ago).

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    1. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/29/upshot/likable-enough-clintons-exaggerated-favorability-problem.html?rref=upshot&abt=0002&abg=1

      BTW, I found this great piece from Nate Cohn that puts in perspective some favorability history.
      McCain with 60% favorability went on to lose. Bill Clinton, with 34% favorability at a point, won.

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    2. Actually, Brendan Nyhan wrote it.

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    3. Passed along on FB & Tw...thanks!

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