Monday, June 8, 2015

With Clinton, North Carolina Could Definitely Go Blue Again in 2016

No doubt about it: the 2008 result in the Tar Heel State is looking less and less like an electoral anomaly, according to PPP's latest poll:
Clinton leads 7 out of 9 Republicans for the general election in North Carolina, generally by modest margins. The two exceptions are Rand Paul and Scott Walker, who she's tied with at 44% and 45% respectively. Marco Rubio trails by only one point at 45/44, Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee are each down by 2 at 46/44, Chris Christie has a 3 point deficit at 43/40, Carly Fiorina is down 6 at 46/40, and Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz each trail by 7 at 47/40 and 49/42 respectively. This continues a string of polls showing that the Presidential race in North Carolina is likely to be close once again next year, following up on the state's being the second closest in the country in both 2008 and 2012. ...
“The closeness of all these match ups is just more confirmation that North Carolina is on the swing state list to stay,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It was one of the closest states in the country in both 2008 and 2012 and it looks like it will be highly competitive again in 2016.”
Here's the thing though...very similar results have been seen in North Carolina polling for at least 18 months, according to 270toWin (click on the NC tab to see them all). Aside from the bottom dropping out of Bush's numbers this month, the consistency here is striking and should terrify the GOP. Here are the last eight Clinton vs Bush matchups in the state, which include three other pollsters besides the NC-based PPP:

If states like North Carolina and Arizona are the battlegrounds for 2016... you'd better believe that I'd much rather be us than them.

A note of caution, however:


  1. It's astonishing how the MSM totally ignore Hillary's strength in these state polls--yet a rigged national poll (CNN/ORC) is all we hear about on Smerconish, on Fox News, on Morning Joe.

    1. Yep. It's stupid but totally unsurprising!