Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Hillary Leads All Republicans in Michigan (PPP Poll)

There are no big surprises in the new general election poll numbers from PPP out of Michigan, a state that hasn't gone red since 1988:
Clinton leads the entire Republican field for the general election by margins ranging anywhere from 3 to 10 points. Her average lead of 7 points is a little less than what Barack Obama won the state by in 2012 but a good deal more than the 3 point win John Kerry had in the state in 2004. The Republican who comes closest to Clinton is Rand Paul, who lags by 3 points at 45/42. Next best are Scott Walker who trails by 4 at 46/42 and Mike Huckabee who's down by 5 at 47/42.
On the other side of the equation the Republicans who do the worst against Clinton, each trailing by 10 points at 49/39, are Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Also in that bottom range are Jeb Bush who's down by 9 at 47/38, and Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina who are each down by 8 at 49/41 and 46/38 respectively. Chris Christie and Marco Rubio, each trailing by Clinton by 6 at 44/38 and 46/40 respectively come down in between.
Indies tend to like Rand Paul (for reasons I still find hard to fathom) but it's a little hard to believe that corrupt union-buster Walker and nutty preacher Huckabee would be that close to Clinton in Michigan. It's amusing to see Jeb Bush dwelling in the "bottom range" however.

Things get more interesting/hilarious when looking at the primary numbers.

Still just the right height.
Among Republicans, it's all bunched up as usual with 15% for Walker and 14% for Bush, Carson and...the Donald! Everyone else is in the single digits. You read that right: Donald Trump is now essentially in a four-way tie for the lead among Republicans here. And who knows...his jaw-dropping Trumpmentum might just propel him even further in the coming weeks. Such a disaster on the GOP side would be an amazing thing to witness, so let's hope so.

As far as Democrats, the early-state gains for Bernie Sanders appear to be spreading. He has reached an impressive 25% in this poll...though he's still 32 points behind Hillary, who at 57% remains near the level seen in many other state polls going back for months.

PPP has a note of caution about Bernie and the other Democratic candidates not named Hillary, however...and it's the same story we see in every other state they've polled this year. Simply put, voters know Hillary Clinton, are ready to vote for her, and anyone else is simply a tough sell at this point.

If we're going to talk about electability, now would be a good time. Right?


  1. NEW CNN/ORC poll (7/1/15) has HRC nationally over Bush by 13, Walker by 17, Rubio by 16, Trump by 24, and Christie by 16. Sanders is in THIRD place among Dems HRC leads Biden by 41 and Sanders by 43. Is the media going to report on this Hillary "surge"?

    1. Ohhh yeah. That's what I'm talkin' 'bout! I'll dig into these numbers and have something soon.