Tuesday, June 2, 2015

CNN Polled 7% More Republicans This Time Around ...and Hillary Still Wins

Oops, they've done it again. It looks like a bit more perspective might be needed on today's polls.

In CNN's poll from April, which showed Hillary Clinton with a solid 53% approval and crushing leads over all the Republicans, here was the ideological breakdown:
The CNN/ORC International poll was conducted by telephone, April 16-19, among a random national sample of 1,018 adult Americans. Results for the full poll have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Among the 435 Republicans and independents who lean Republican, it is 4.5 points, and among the 458 Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, it is 4.5 points.
This comes out to:
45% Democratic
43% Republican

In today's poll, which shows Hillary with much narrower leads over the GOP and an underwater 46% approval, it looks much different:
The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone May 29-31, among a random national sample of 1,025 adults. The margin of sampling error for results among the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. It is 4.5 points for results among the 433 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and the 483 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
This comes out to:
42% Democratic
47% Republican

That represents a 7% shift towards the Republicans since their last poll. Not coincidentally, 7% is the exact difference between the last two favorability numbers for Hillary in the CNN polls (53% vs 46%).

In the poll's PDF they also state that the poll is weighted for a lot of things, but not party ID. Compare this to the +6 Democratic result from the 2012 presidential election, and you can do your own math about the accuracy of this poll.

News flash: You can get whatever the hell result you want...it all depends on who you ask.


  1. And not a soul in the mainstream press will EVER point out how rigged these polls are!

    1. Of course not! Defeats the purpose.

  2. Thanks for the update, scan. This adds some much-needed context!

  3. Scan, I was doing my best today in many forums to try to spread the word about how unfair this CNN/ORC poll is--I saw NUMEROUS articles and TV spots about it today and not ONE person commented on the demographics of the poll. It's very frustrating. Yet when the CA Field Poll in CA comes out on May 22 with a huge Clinton lead--or when Hillary beats Walker in WI by 10 pts--is there a word in the press--of course not. Hillary's ONLY problem is the media.

    1. Of course they didn't! But here's the good news: once she rebounds in the next poll, think of the positive stories they will all report about Hillary's amazi...

      ...err, nevermind!