Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Bernie Surges in NH, but Hillary Dominant As Ever Nationally

Well, looks like we've got ourselves a race in a very, very important state!
The Berniementum is real.
Bernie Sanders, the self-described Vermont socialist whose ragtag presidential campaign is drawing overflow crowds across the country, is within shouting distance of Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, according to a new Suffolk University poll of Granite State Democrats.
The poll of 500 likely Democratic voters found Mrs. Clinton has but a 10-percentage point lead over Mr. Sanders, 41% to 31%. The survey is the first public poll showing Mr. Sanders – or anyone else – within 10 points of Mrs. Clinton in New Hampshire since 2016 polling began early last year. In early May, a Bloomberg/St. Anselm College poll gave Mrs. Clinton a 44-point lead over Mr. Sanders.
Wow...that's quite an impressive one-month surge.

Many of us had a hunch that New Hampshire would be an especially strong state for Bernie, and now this certainly appears to be the case. I may be a Hillary supporter, but Bernie is running a positive, spirited, issue-oriented campaign...so I look forward to the debates and a fun fight for this crucial state!

But for Clinton supporters, there's also some very good news in two national polls out today.

In a Monmouth University poll, she's leading with 57% to 12% for both Sanders and Biden, and in PPP's latest:
Bernie Sanders may be gaining momentum in recent New Hampshire polling but Hillary Clinton is more dominant than ever in the national polling. She's at 65% to 9% for Bernie Sanders, 5% for Martin O'Malley, and 4% each for Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb.
In case you're bad at math, that's a whopping 56% lead over her nearest competitor. Amazing.

Also, Hillary leads all Republicans in head-to-head matchups in this same poll:
The Republicans who fare best against Clinton are Ben Carson and Marco Rubio, each of whom trail by 3 points at 46/43...
Clinton leads Jeb Bush and Chris Christie each by 4 at 45/41, Scott Walker by 4 as well at 46/42, has a 5 point advantage over Mike Huckabee at 47/42, is up 6 on Carly Fiorina and Ted Cruz at 46/40 and 48/42 respectively, and has a 7 point edge over Rand Paul at 47/40. Clinton's 3 to 7 point lead range is comparable to our April poll when she led by 3 to 9 points, but down from February when we found her leading the GOP hopefuls by 7 to 10 points. 
Digging into the data, we can see another big disconnect between "moderates" (ideology) and "Independents" (party affiliation). Take a look at the Clinton/Rubio matchup, which is one of the closest. Marco has a nice lead among Independents but Hillary is absolutely killing it with the moderates. Once again we see that these two terms aren't anywhere close to being the same thing.

The Independents also clearly prefer crazy Ben Carson over Clinton in this poll as well. Just something to consider.

An important note about PPP's methodology: By looking at the info on page 2 of the survey, it would seem that the sample for the poll comes out to 43.6% Republican to 41.7% Democrat. That only refers to the primary matchups. I've heard from the nice folks at PPP personally that this is not the case for the general election matchups. That information is on page 43 and it's Democrat 39%, Republican 32% and everyone else at 29%. That's pretty darn close to recent presidential election exit polls. PPP continues to be really good and transparent polling outfit, and their help on this is much appreciated.


  1. If Hillary weren't running, I'd much prefer Bernie to O'Malley. He's running a substance-oriented, positive campaign without any sophomoric potshots at Hillary. Good for him, and I'm not remotely surprised he's doing well in NH.

    1. Yeah...O'Malley does nothing for me. Or hardly anyone else. Good for Bernie!