Tuesday, June 2, 2015

A Mixed Bag for Clinton in Two New National Polls

Let's get the bad news out of the way first, with CNN's graphic doing the dirty work.

Essentially, in this and the simultaneous ABC News/WP poll, Hillary's favorability rating has gone clearly underwater and the Republicans are now nipping at her heels in the head-to-head matchups.

And yet, she's still beating Jeb Bush by 8 points in both polls, and the rest of the GOP field by anywhere from 1 (Paul) to 9 (Cruz) points in the CNN survey.

So if the public is souring a bit on Hillary personally, why is she still leading? The answer, obviously, is that people like the guys in the Republican clown car much less. So while Clinton's 45% favorability in the ABC poll isn't very good, she certainly wouldn't trade it for Bush's pathetic 32%.

But if Clinton supporters are looking for a bit more solace, her numbers among Democrats have been holding rock steady at 60+ percent with Biden at 14% and Sanders at 10% in both polls.

Also, comparing these two graphs from the ABC poll doesn't hurt either.


While the "unskewing" of polls is rightly shunned and is to be avoided, there is something weird going on in the CNN poll that bears some scrutiny.

Despite being an officially-undeclared candidate who's been largely off the national radar for a while, Scott Walker has gone from a 22-point to 3-point deficit...gaining a whopping 19 points on Hillary...since their last poll in April. Not only that, but Rand Paul has gained 18 points and even Ted freakin' Cruz has gained 15 points. The most visible anti-Hillary story that's emerged since that last poll was the fizzled Clinton Cash hack job, so that doesn't explain such a crazy swing. Also, there has been no similar shift to the GOP on the state level over the past month, and Clinton actually gained on them nationally from late April to late May according to Quinnipiac's two most recent surveys.

So with all due respect to CNN (hah!), I find the Scott Walker/Rand Paul super-surge of May 2015 highly unlikely. But we'll find out soon enough if it's just another polling fluke or if there truly are dark clouds forming above ClintonLand.

As of now, I don't buy it.

6 comments:

  1. Didn't the CNN poll today out sample Reps by 50 respondents over Dems? The best news for HRC is that Field Poll in CA which has her up 21 on Bush and Rubio and 24 on Walker.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I didn't see that, but there were a huge amount of indies...which seem to skew R in the crosstabs. I think the best news is that she's totally rock steady among Dems...she has to win the nomination first!

      Delete
  2. Out of 1025 polled CNN had 433 Dems and Dem leaning Independents, while they had 483 Reps and Rep leaning independents. Sounds off to me. And what were the other 109 respondents--non-leaning Independents?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good eye! I only noticed this in the PDF: "Among the entire sample, 27% described themselves as Democrats, 21% described themselves as Republicans, and 52% described themselves as independents or members of another party."

      This is a total switch from their last poll...tricky tricky! Thanks.

      Delete
    2. Scan, in the 2012 election the turnout was 38% Dems, 32% Reps and only 29% Independents--1% other. So THIS poll it seems to me way oversampled Independents. Thus the lower results for Hillary. BUT despite all this and despite the media's constantly harping on phony "scandals" HRC STILL leads all Reps.

      Delete