Thursday, May 21, 2015

Hillary Easily Leads All Republicans in Washington State in New PPP Poll

Not that Washington State was in danger of going red in 2016, but welcome numbers nonetheless:
Clinton leads the GOP hopefuls by anywhere from 10 to 15 points. Ben Carson and Marco Rubio come the closest, each trailing by 10 at 49/39. Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are each down by 11 at 48/37 and 49/38 respectively. Ted Cruz and Rand Paul face 12 point deficits at 50/38. Mike Huckabee and Rick Perry lag by 13 points at 50/37. And Chris Christie does the worst of the Republican field with a 15 point deficit at 49/34.
“It looks like Washington will remain solidly blue at the Presidential level in 2016,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “None of the Republican hopefuls are that competitive with Hillary Clinton.”
As far as Bernie is concerned, there is both good news and bad news. On the upside:
But as we have been seeing with other polls recently, Republicans continue to perform dangerously well against anyone not named Hillary.
We also tested the other Democratic hopefuls against Scott Walker but even in this dark blue state, none of them lead him. Bernie Sanders achieves a tie at 35, and the rest of the Democrats trail him- Jim Webb by 1 point at 33/32, Martin O'Malley by 3 points at 34/31, and Lincoln Chafee by 6 points at 35/29. The weak performances of the alternate Democrats are a byproduct of their being so little known that they get only 54-61% of their own party's vote but nevertheless they show how much more formidable Clinton is than anyone else on her side.
As far as the Republican nomination goes, you know the drill by now: all bunched up with Scott Walker as the very, very nominal favorite this time. 
6 Republican candidates hit double digits when it comes to who voters within their party want to be their nominee. Scott Walker leads with 18% to 15% for Marco Rubio, 13% for Mike Huckabee, 11% for Ted Cruz, and 10% each for Jeb Bush and Ben Carson. Chris Christie (6%), Rand Paul (5%), and Rick Perry (3%) round out the field.


  1. I wonder by what margin Bill Clinton or Obama won WA; that would be an interesting comparison. I'm still predicting tsunami wave election.

  2. I think this might be found by looking up the wikipedia entries for the '92 and '96 elections. I'd do it now, but I'm tired! Whatever the case, your wave election prediction is most likely right on the mark!

  3. Good suggestion, I checked that out. O did win WA by 17 points over McCain in 08. Of course, with actual votes vs. polls there are no undecideds, and most of those will obviously go the candidate who wins the state. I think most of the Bernie and Liz people will eventually vote for Hillary, too. So I'm happy with her leading by 10-15 points. Interesting post.