Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Arizona is Looking Like a 2016 Swing State

Bill Clinton won Arizona in 1996 and it just might happen again with Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to a new PPP poll:
Clinton is within 3 points in match ups with 7 out of 9 of the Republicans we tested. She actually leads Rick Perry 44/41 and she is tied with Jeb Bush (at 41%), and Ben Carson(at 42%). She is down by 1 point each to Ted Cruz and Scott Walker (44/43), by 2 points to Marco Rubio (43/41), and by 3 points to Mike Huckabee (44/41). The only Republicans with more robust leads are Rand Paul who's ahead by 5 points at 45/40 and Chris Christie who's up by 7 points at 46/39. Clinton's deficit in every match up is smaller than the amount Barack Obama lost the state by in 2008 and 2012.
"Depending on who the Republicans end up nominating Arizona has the potential to be a competitive state in the 2016 election,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy  Polling. “The GOP is certainly favored there but it at least starts out pretty close.” 
While the Republican field looks like a "jumbled mess", Clinton's numbers remain incredibly strong among Democrats.
Hillary Clinton is dominating the Democratic field in Arizona with 58% to 16% for Bernie Sanders, 5% each for Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb, and 4% for Martin O'Malley... 
Clinton has more than 50% support from liberals, men, women, whites, Latinos, African Americans, and voters in every age group. The only meaningful group of voters we track that she's under 50% with is moderates- and with them she gets 49%. She continues to be the dominant favorite of Democratic voters.
Also consider that this poll was taken before Hillary's statement on immigration yesterday, which will surely have some impact on future poll results in this state.

So who's ready to help turn Arizona blue next year and really humiliate the Republicans?


  1. As an Arizona resident, I'm so ready for my state to go blue, so fingers crossed!

    1. It could happen, and that would be awesome!

  2. I live in AZ! I saw Bill Clinton speak at ASU in 1996. (Got a sunburn.)

    1. With these numbers, maybe he'll be back soon!