Thursday, April 2, 2015

No Foolin': Hillary is Still Crushing Everyone in Sight (ABC/WP Poll)

Here is another good example of the media "narrative" at work, and why taking headlines at face value isn't recommended.

With her announcement only days away, this morning Google News displayed a headline from Time reading "Poll Shows Support For Hillary in Decline". Uh oh.

Opening it, the first thing you see is a photo of Mrs. Clinton looking appropriately concerned at her eGhazi press conference. Double uh oh.

The piece also ends by saying she's been "mired in controversy recently". However, in between all this overall negativity, Time mentions a couple of times that she's still beating the Republicans (who all have much worse approval stats)...but there are no matchup numbers to be found.

To find that, you must open up the PDF to find out the bottom line: Nothing has changed.

The poll also finds that she's stronger than ever among the Democratic field.
Clinton continues to cruise on the Democratic side, with 66 percent support against five others – more than quintuple her nearest potential rivals, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, with 12 percent apiece. (Warren this week said she won’t run.) Bernie Sanders has 5 percent; Jim Webb, 1 percent; and Martin O’Malley less than half a percent.
LOL! I thought April Fools was yesterday?

Time was just a waste of time.

The link at ABC News provides much, much more useful information and analysis. For instance, her drop in popularity was mostly from Republicans... which was expected all along.
Clinton’s decline in favorability may have been predictable, in that it’s occurred as she’s moved from being the nation’s top diplomat back to the partisan world of a presidential campaign. It’s occurred chiefly among Republicans, among whom she’s down by 19 points just since January 2014, and Republican-leaning independents. 
The poll also shows that America loves Bill Clinton more than ever. He will be an immeasurably huge asset for Democrats across the board in 2016.
Clinton has further help from the family. A remarkable 73 percent of Americans now say they approve of the way her husband handled his job as president from 1993-2001 – Bill Clinton’s highest retrospective rating on record, as well as higher than any he received while in office. Far fewer, 47 percent, approve of the way Bush’s brother, George W. Bush, handled his presidency from 2001-2009. In their general election matchup, Clinton gets overwhelming support from her husband’s fans, as does Bush from his brother’s.
Before her campaign has even started, there is an enthusiasm advantage that no one can touch.
One advantage for Clinton is early enthusiasm. Among registered voters who support her against Bush, 83 percent describe themselves as enthusiastic about doing so, including 42 percent who are “very” enthusiastic. Among Bush supporters in a matchup against Clinton, many fewer are enthusiastic, 68 percent; and fewer still, 12 percent, are very enthusiastic. To a large degree that’s to be expected; Bush’s supporters vs. Clinton include many Republicans who’d like to see someone else in those shoes, so it’s no wonder they’re less enthusiastic.
Lastly, take a quick look at the gender gap between her and the closest GOP competitor.

Serious question: How does the GOP actually expect to win this thing?

1 comment:

  1. I guess if you write for a publication like Time, you have to do your best to make things sound interesting.