Thursday, April 30, 2015

Strong Numbers for Clinton in Two New NC Polls

If this is going to be the third presidential election in a row where Republicans can't count on winning North Carolina...they are in deep, deep trouble. A couple of new polls should do nothing to assuage their fears.

From Survey USA:

Chart via RealClearPolitics.com
Nice numbers overall, but check out that sweet nine-point lead versus Scott Walker! This result is almost as bad as what we're seeing for him in his own state.

It should be noted that this poll was taken right as the buzz over the Donategate "scandal" was at its peak. But it didn't seem to move the needle last week, and it's already been debunked so many times that I've lost count.

Additionally, Elon University polled Clinton versus Bush around the same time and found a similar result of Clinton up by 3.

The results of both of these polls are also quite consistent with a string of recent polls from NC-based Public Policy Polling.

If the Clinton campaign remains as strong over the next year and a half as they've been over the past few weeks, I'd definitely put my money on North Carolina turning BLUE again in 2016!

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

"It's Time to End the Era of Mass Incarceration"



Hillary Clinton's call to end mass incarceration, address inequality, and restore trust between law enforcement and communities. We'll have more on this incredibly important and often moving speech soon. 

For now, watch the full speech above. 

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Love Must Win


Monday, April 27, 2015

They're Gonna Need a Bigger Swiftboat

What to call it? A lame "scandal" deserves an equally lame name, so let's go with Donategate. And it sure looks like it's already flaming out after about a week...not even as long as the similarly impotent Emailgate. So let's take a quick look back at the brief sordid history of Peter Schweizer's Clinton Cash before getting to some recent updates which further suggest that end is nigh for this nonsense before it's even released to the public.

On April 19th, the New York Times excitedly published a preview of a book that appeared to be big news because Rand Paul thought was "big news". Yes, that was the exact quote from their opening paragraph. Terrifying, right? Not really, because it took just one day for Media Matters for America to annihilate the author as a right-wing hack writer with a highly-questionable past riddled with errors and retractions. Shortly thereafter, ABC News found errors in the new book.

A few days later, on April 23rd, the NYT published their big "exclusive" story on Uranium One... but that was followed-up very quickly with a piece by the paper's very own public editor expressing great concern about the "troubling" nature of their arrangement with Schweizer. Oh yeah, and they also managed to leave a few really important and relevant facts out of the story altogether. (Note: this sort of thing is unfortunately no longer surprising from this once-reputable purveyor of actual journalism.)

In the midst of their otherwise long-winded insinuation salad about Donategate, here is the only area that seemed like a solid, fact-based accusation of...something.
Uranium One’s chairman used his family foundation to make four donations totaling $2.35 million. Those contributions were not publicly disclosed by the Clintons, despite an agreement Mrs. Clinton had struck with the Obama White House to publicly identify all donors.
Oversight? Reporting error? Bill and Hillary nefariously whispering into the ear of an accountant to 'make this generous charitable donation go away'? The article provides no answer, adding that "the foundation did not provide a response."

Until now. On Sunday, we got the answer directly from the Clinton Foundation and it certainly sounds legit...if complicated.
The Foundation has 11 different initiatives, some of which function in organizationally different ways. One of these 11 initiatives is the Clinton Giustra Enterprise Partnership (CGEP), which is focused on advancing innovative solutions to poverty alleviation on a global scale. CGEP has come under heightened scrutiny this past week and I want to explain how it operates.
The Clinton Foundation executes all of the work that CGEP does. CGEP does receive financial backing for projects from an independent Canadian charity called the Clinton Giustra Enterprise Partnership (Canada), which Frank Giustra established so that Canadians could support the initiative’s valuable work and receive a charitable tax credit. CGEP (Canada) provides funding on a project-by-project basis and this money goes exclusively to CGEP projects, not to the Foundation’s general operating fund.
Like every contributor to the Foundation, the Clinton Giustra Enterprise Partnership (Canada) is publicly listed as a donor on our website. But as it is a distinct Canadian organization, separate from the Clinton Foundation, its individual donors are not listed on the site. This is hardly an effort on our part to avoid transparency – unlike in the U.S., under Canadian law; all charities are prohibited from disclosing individual donors without prior permission from each donor.
So, after about a week of heavy breathing in the news media, what exactly does Donategate have to show for itself? A ton of circumstantial innuendo by an unreliable right-wing hack that's only managed to expose some vagueness about donations to a Canadian charity. Also, a popular ex-president sometimes gives paid speeches.

How lame is it? So much so that when Chris Wallace confronted Schweizer on Fox News Sunday with the fact that he didn't have "a single piece of evidence" of wrongdoing by Hillary Clinton, the author kept nodding full agreement!



It's pretty obvious what Donategate and the late-and-not-so-great Emailgate are really about: Hillary Clinton holds a huge lead over the Republicans and is a strong favorite to win in 2016. The GOP's only shot at a narrow victory? Turning her and her husband's highly-acclaimed recent accomplishments (Secretary of State and the Clinton Foundation, respectively) into liabilities with the help of our bored news media. This famous strategy worked on a Vietnam War hero in 2004, so they think it might just work again in 2016.

Good luck with that. When it comes to the Clintons, they're gonna need a bigger swiftboat.

Saturday, April 25, 2015

Hillary Clinton Delivers First Campaign Speech of 2015



...and it's terrific. Or as the Daily Beast describes it:
"Meet the new Barack Obama: Her name is Hillary Clinton."
I thought Hillary's speeches in the last few months of her last campaign were pretty darn good, actually. They may not have reached the soaring preacher-esque heights of her Democratic rival's, but in their own wonky and populist way...not bad at all.

But this speech is better, and also makes clear that equality will be at the forefront of this historic progressive campaign.
Speaking to a friendly crowd at the Women in the World Summit in Manhattan, Clinton thundered about the rights and opportunities, political or otherwise, of women and girls around the world.
“It is hard to believe that in 2015 so many women still pay a price for being mothers. It is also hard to believe that so many women are also paid less than many for the same work, with even wider gaps for women of color,” Clinton said to sustained applause. “And if you don’t believe what I say, look to the World Economic Forum, hardly a hotbed of feminist thought. Their rankings show that the United States is 65th out of 142 nations and other territories on equal pay.
“We should be No. 1.”
Clinton placed women’s struggle for equality within the struggle for a more equal economic playing field, pointing out that the lack of parity on wages meant that families had less to spend on education, health care, and retirement. 
“When women are held back, our country is held back. When women get ahead, everyone gets ahead,” Clinton said.
“Our mothers and sisters and daughters are on the front lines of all of these battles,” Clinton added later. “But these are not just women’s fights. These have to be America’s fights and the world’s fights. We have to take them on, we have to win them together.”
Don't think for a second that her potential Republican rivals came out of this speech unscathed.
“We have to have leaders who recognize that the time has come. There are those who offer themselves as leaders who take a very different view,” Clinton said. “There are those who offer themselves as leaders who see nothing wrong with denying women equal pay. There are those who offer themselves as leaders who would defund the country’s leading provider of family planning and want to let health insurance companies once again charge women just because of our gender. There are those who offer themselves as leaders who deport mothers working to give their children a better life rather than face the ire of talk radio. There are those who offer themselves as leaders who would even play politics with the nomination of our nation’s chief law enforcement officer.
It's really no wonder that the Republicans and complicit news media are desperate for more Clinton "scandals". Watching this speech, one wonders how such an amazingly strong candidate could possibly be stopped.

Friday, April 24, 2015

David Brock on Morning Joe is Must-See TV



Is this guy good or what?

And in case you missed Media Matters for America founder David Brock's other recent appearance on Morning Joe, which occurred right when the email "scandal" broke, it's worth revisiting. Joe, Mika and even Bob Woodward couldn't fathom that Brock was telling the truth about that bogus story, but he was right on the money and history has proven it. The look on Mika's face is particularly priceless.

Considering that more and more errors keep being found in Schweizer's Clinton Cash before it's even been released, it would seem that history will prove Brock right once again.

Thanks for keeping it real, David. We hope to see you back on Morning Joe with the same awesome hair whenever the next bogus Clinton "scandal" erupts.



Wednesday, April 22, 2015

A Word About Trolls

We've already been seeing it, especially on Facebook, and it's only going to get worse over time. You know it when you see it, and sometimes it's offensive enough to make you start to lose faith in humanity. So here's the policy:

Trolling behavior at HillaryHQ.com and our Facebook & Twitter pages will not be tolerated. 

If you leave such a comment or reply here or on Facebook, it will be hidden or deleted and you will be banned...probably without warning. On Twitter, you will be blocked.

If you build it...they will come.
This applies to comments that are sexist, ageist, racist, homophobic or otherwise offensive along these lines. It also applies to anything that is demonstrably false or inflammatory. Also, a favorite sport among trolls since the early '90s has been accusing the Clintons of being guilty of murder and other heinous crimes, and of course these comments will not be tolerated either.

Obviously, these rules also apply to offensive imagery of all kinds.

Also, if you do nothing but leave the same negative comment or image over and over again on multiple posts, even if it's not strictly offensive, getting banned is the most likely outcome. Because at that point, you're simply being an annoying troll...and don't you have something better to do?

Personal attacks on other commenters will not be tolerated, either.

If you see an offensive comment, please do not engage with the troll...because it only encourages them to keep doing it. Rest assured that these comments will be gone in short order, so just ignore them...they hate that! Also, feel free to contact us if you see anything offensive that the administrator might not be aware of.

All that said, respectful debate is always allowed. Think Donald Trump's economic ideas are better? Think Marco Rubio's plan for dealing with ISIS is smarter? Think Ted Cruz is the next Reagan? Okay great...intelligently tell us why you think that and someone will probably be more than happy to debate you.

Hillary HQ is designed to be a safe place for Hillary supporters in the midst of so much negativity. But sometimes the bad stuff slips through the cracks anyway...because haters gonna hate and trollers gonna troll.

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Holiday in the Big Easy

Hillary HQ will be vacationing in the great American city of New Orleans for a few days and will return this Wednesday. However, since the campaign just started and Hillary is returning to New Hampshire, this week will be too interesting for us to ignore. Follow along at Facebook and Twitter and, as always, we'll keep you up to date with the latest news and opinion from around the web.

See you soon!

Friday, April 17, 2015

Hate to Say 'We Told You So" But...

A lot of people are surprised that Hillary Clinton is running such a populist progressive campaign from the get-go and wondering if she's serious.

But not Hillary HQ.

In fact, we predicted that Clinton would run a populist progressive campaign months ago. I'm not sure what people were expecting, but we believe the writing's been on the wall for years. So let's take a quick moment to pat ourselves on the back and say "we told you so"!

For instance, back in January, the very first post written for the site had a 2007 quote from Hillary as the headline and brushed up on some forgotten history about her previous campaign:
'I consider myself a proud modern American progressive'
Though sometimes lost in the back-and-forth of the historic 2007-2008 primary battle, Clinton ran a campaign that was in some respects more progressive than Obama's, particularly in domestic areas such as health care... 
Give credit where it's due: the last time she ran for president, Hillary ran as a progressive and was refreshingly proud to tell you why. I wouldn't expect anything different this time around.
At a speech in Winnipeg later that month, this quote was noted in a post that suggested a focus on wage inequality was on the horizon.
"A new report by the global charity, Oxfam, found that the eighty richest people in the world...not possess as much wealth as the poorest 3 1/2 billion people combined, and they predict that by next year, the top 1% of the wealthiest globally will own more than half of all the wealth on the planet...  
Now, in many countries, people are asking: How can we reverse this trend? How can we share prosperity more broadly and fairly? How can we relearn how to work together and to grow together?" 
In her Silicon Valley speech the following month, she went further.
"We have to restore economic growth with rising wages for the vast majority of Americans, and we have to restore trust and cooperation within our political system so that we can act like the great country we are," Clinton said. 
"Wages no longer rise with productivity while CEO pay continues to go up," Clinton said, channeling the Democratic Party's left-wing. "If we want to find our balance again, we have to figure how to make this new economy work for everyone." 
It seems to be a matter of opinion, but Hillary has often been criticized for being "too close to Wall Street". But in terms of actual governance, what does that mean, exactly? For instance, would she would seek to diminish recent financial reforms? We didn't buy that at all, and neither did the co-author of Dodd-Frank. In fact, there were even hints that she would seek further reforms:
We'll learn more about Clinton's stance on financial reform, as well as any proposed changes, once her campaign officially begins. Her recent consultations with Elizabeth Warren might even hint at some proposals that progressives such as myself will celebrate.
And whaddaya know, just yesterday Hillary saluted Elizabeth Warren in Time Magazine, writing that "reforming our financial system is far from finished" and today came word that she has hired top Wall Street cop Gary Gensler as her campaign's chief financial officer.

You didn't need to believe us, either. All you had to do was read her Twitter tweets over the last couple of years to get hints that she would run a progressive campaign, and last week we helpfully compiled twelve of them.

Also, guests posts by Lysis and Paul Henry described her consultations with Warren and her liberal track record in the Senate, respectively.

Alright...self-congratulation session complete. The point is, when it comes to Hillary Clinton... we know what we're talking about here at Hillary HQ.

In fairness, this doesn't mean that we're never wrong. In fact, last month we recommended that the campaign kick off in Little Rock...and obviously, that did not come to pass. However, if the campaign is looking for a great spot for their first big rally, there's still an opportunity to make us half-right after all!

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Clinton is Still Crushing Walker in Wisconsin (Marquette Poll)

Wisconsin governor Scott Walker might still (barely, maybe) be leading the Republican field, but the voters of his home state know him better and are finally getting tired of his shenanigans.

Also, they are absolutely ready for Hillary to kick his butt.
Graph via 270toWin
A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Gov. Scott Walker’s job approval rating has fallen to 41 percent, with 56 percent of registered voters in Wisconsin saying they disapprove of how he is handling his job as governor. In the previous poll, in October 2014, Walker’s approval among registered voters was 49 percent, with 47 percent disapproving. 
To look ahead to a possible 2016 presidential matchup, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Walker in Wisconsin, 52 percent to 40 percent.
These results are in line with other recent polling of the state.

Again we must ask...if Walker can't even come close to winning his much-coveted home state, why should anyone expect his message to resonate in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia? Republican primary voters will need to ask themselves that...but if they do settle on him (and in this lame GOP field, it will mean settling for less), Democrats should welcome such a matchup with open arms.


Hillary Clinton Salutes "Progressive Champion" Elizabeth Warren in Time Magazine


In Time's annual The 100 Most Influential People issue, Hillary Clinton has just written this entry for Senator Elizabeth Warren:
Progressive champion
It was always going to take a special kind of leader to pick up Ted Kennedy’s mantle as senior Senator from Massachusetts—champion of working families and scourge of special interests. Elizabeth Warren never lets us forget that the work of taming Wall Street’s irresponsible risk taking and reforming our financial system is far from finished. And she never hesitates to hold powerful people’s feet to the fire: bankers, lobbyists, senior government officials and, yes, even presidential aspirants. 
Elizabeth Warren’s journey from janitor’s daughter to Harvard professor to public watchdog to U.S. Senator has been driven by an unflagging determination to level the playing field for hardworking American families like the one she grew up with in Oklahoma. She fights so hard for others to share in the American Dream because she lived it herself.
Wow, what a classy and savvy move on Clinton's part. Not only that, but how about that second sentence where Hillary says that "reforming our financial system is far from finished"? Perhaps this was the issue that they talked about in December.

Very interesting.

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Clinton Urges Supreme Court to Rule in Favor of Same-Sex Marriage

Via Mother Jones


Hillary Clinton has landed firmly on the side of love and equality on this issue that means so much to so many. But she's been speaking out in favor of LGBT equality for a while now, perhaps most famously by declaring that:

"Being LGBT does not make you less human. And that is why gay rights are human rights, and human rights are gay rights."



After that historic speech she delivered as Secretary of State, she followed up as a private citizen with this 2013 video for the Human Rights Campaign giving full support for same-sex marriage.



Has she evolved on this issue over the years? Certainly, as have many progressive leaders such as President Obama and Vice President Biden.

But this much is clear: her statement today is no "flip flop" and should come as a surprise to no one.

Ouch! Ted Cruz is Outperforming Marco Rubio by 250%

Is this a weak Republican field or what? Don't be surprised if they desperately bring Romney back this fall. According to a new USA Today/Suffolk poll:
No GOP candidate scored as high as double digits, a sign of the most wide-open nomination contest in modern times. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker was a narrow leader at 9%, followed by former Florida governor Jeb Bush at 8%, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 7% and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 5%.
In response to the open-ended question, no one named Mitt Romney, the party's 2012 presidential nominee. He led the field at 16% in the USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll in January, but he has since said he doesn't plan to run in 2016.


Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Hillary Clinton Returns to Iowa as Populist "Champion"

After hopping in her "Scooby" van for an unannounced road trip - and making a gas station pit stop and incognito Chipotle run in the process - Hillary's first official campaign event in Iowa was not a huge rally but rather a quiet conversation with a few people in a small town community college automotive technology classroom.

However, it did begin with a short statement about why she is running for president, and here it is:


"It's fair to say the deck is still stacked in favor of those already at the top. There's something wrong with that. There's something wrong when CEOs make 300 times more than the typical worker."
"There's something wrong when American workers keep getting more productive, as they have, and as I just saw a few minutes ago is very possible because of education and skills training, but that productivity is not matched in their paychecks."
"And there's something wrong when hedge fund managers pay lower tax rates than nurses or the truckers I saw on I-80 as I was driving here over the last two days."
"There's something wrong when students and their families have to go deeply into debt to be able to get the education and skills they need in order to make the best of their own lives."
Aside from these strong populist tones, she also made news by taking a firm stand against the dark money that continues to cripple our elections and government:
"We need to fix our dysfunctional political system and get unaccountable money out of it once and for all, even if it takes a constitutional amendment."
Just words to jump on the Elizabeth Warren bandwagon? Hardly, as the Washington Post noted today:
Hillary Clinton's announcement video Sunday included a clear-as-day shout-out to Elizabeth Warren. "The deck is stacked" against average Americans, Clinton argued, echoing Warren's "System is rigged" mantra. 
But while that is the most full-throated brand of populism we've seen from Clinton, she's not exactly new to the genre. 
Back in the 2008 campaign, Clinton made regular reference to "invisible Americans." In fact, it was an early focal point of her campaign....
"For six years, America's middle class and working families have been the invisible Americans," Clinton says. "If you are a hard-working single parent who can't afford health insurance or a small business owner who worries about energy costs or a student who can't afford to continue college, you are invisible to this administration."
Clinton then returns to this theme over and over again, arguing that all manner of Americans have been neglected by -- and are invisible to -- the Bush administration.
She was a proud progressive in her last campaign, and no one should be surprised that she's reemerging as a populist "champion" with similar themes right from day one.

Hillary's Iowa 2.0 rollout has been absolutely pitch-perfect so far.

However, we can't say the same for everyone tagging along. At one point, it was a little unclear if we were watching reporters at a campaign stop or rabid Beatles fans in A Hard Day's Night. This is a pretty amusing spectacle that's also a good metaphor for the situation: this trip is on Hillary's terms.



More to come soon in Iowa...followed by another road trip all the way back to New Hampshire? Hey, why not!

Hillary Orders Lunch at Chipotle... and No One Notices

All it took was sunglasses!
Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential campaign is all about “everyday Americans,” she made clear in announcing it on Sunday.
On Monday, she showed how unassuming she herself could be.
Driving to Iowa for her first campaign swing, Mrs. Clinton’s van — with two aides and Secret Service agents aboard — pulled into a Chipotle restaurant for lunch in Maumee, Ohio, a suburb of Toledo.
And no one recognized her.
This road trip is getting more fun by the second.

Carly Fiorina: "Absolutely I Was Fired!"

Anyone still wondering if Carly Fiorina is ready for prime time have gotten their answer: She's not even ready for Morning Joe.
MIKA BRZEZINSKI: So I’ve been reading and listening to your criticisms of (Clinton) that really are quite searing, again, focusing on her track record of accomplishment. And I’m just wondering, when you talk about blemishes, you have an amazing round of accomplishments in your life, but someone could say it like this:
You ran for Senate and lost. You worked for John McCain and you were moved off that campaign and he lost. You had a tenure at Hewlett Packard that a lot of people describe as extremely rocky; destroying jobs, and destroying the company’s reputation. Are you really the right person to be criticizing Hillary Clinton’s accomplishments or lack thereof?
CARLY FIORINA: Well you clearly have been reading the Democratic talking points. 
Unfortunately for Carly, it actually gets much worse from there. Watch the entire clip below.



Sunday, April 12, 2015

Hilla-Hillary...Where is She?

She's got some work to do now!

Look out Ohio, Indiana and Illinois...Hillary is heading your way Monday in a groovy van in route to her first campaign stop in Monticello, Iowa on Tuesday:
Hillary Clinton is kicking off her second bid for the White House with a road trip, riding from New York to her first campaign stop on Tuesday in Iowa. She was spotted on Sunday evening chatting with people at a gas station in Pennsylvania...
Clinton is riding in a van, which she has nicknamed "Scooby," an aide said, because it reminds her of the Scooby Doo Mystery Machine from the classic television cartoon. Asked whether she was behind the wheel, an aide said Clinton is riding and the Secret Service is driving.​ 
"It's her idea," an aide told CNN, confirming the Clinton sighting. "She loves a road trip and hopes to see people along the way."
She was hoping to keep this trip a secret for a little while longer...and she would've gotten away with it, too, if it wasn't for that meddling kid!
Chris Learn, a 19-year-old student at Penn State Altoona, told CNN that he ran into Clinton at a Pilot gas station. He said she greeted him and asked him questions. He also said she was traveling with a group of people in a small caravan.
"I knew it was her immediately," Learn said. "I just saw her and I was like, there's no way that's her!"
He added: "She didn't really say why she was there, but I was guessing it was for presidential stuff."
The campaign apparently was hoping to keep the road trip under wraps until sending pictures on social media Sunday night, but CNN learned about the trip from Learn.
No one should be surprised if she takes little detours through Michigan and Wisconsin as well.

This was an awesome idea, and it's another indication that this presidential campaign is going to be very different (and hopefully a lot more fun) than the last time around.

Hillary, there's a long day of driving on Monday...so don't forget the Scooby Snacks!


BREAKING: Hillary Clinton Announces Candidacy for President



Join the movement at HillaryClinton.com

Friday, April 10, 2015

Madam President

Everyone has probably heard the news by now: Sunday is the day that many of us have been waiting almost seven years for.

This is going to be an awesome journey.

The next post you see on Hillary HQ will be the official announcement from Hillary Rodham Clinton that she is once again a candidate for President of the United States.

Until then, follow along on Facebook and Twitter for all the latest updates.

History awaits us. See you on Sunday!

Twelve Tweets From Hillary Clinton... the Next Progressive President

A truly historic progressive Democratic campaign is about to begin.

But you needn't wait for Hillary Clinton to announce her candidacy this weekend to get a good idea of what kind of president she would like to become...because over the past couple of years, her Twitter feed has already given us multiple strong hints.

For instance...

...she will stand firm for Obamacare...
...push for a minimum wage increase...
...continue the push for equal pay for equal work...
...repair our broken justice system...
...maintain financial reforms...
...make education a priority...
...fix immigration...
...work to re-strengthen the Voting Rights Act...
 ...protect LGBT rights...
 ...put diplomacy first...
...support brave activists for freedom around the world...
...and be resolutely pro-science.

Thursday, April 9, 2015

WARNING: These Quinnipiac Polls Will Give You Whiplash

Here's a handy guide for the next 19 months: Polls showing Hillary Clinton doing awesome are not newsworthy, but polls showing Hillary Clinton doing less than awesome are ominous signs of her imminent collapse. To keep your sanity during our upcoming year-and-a-half journey into the political abyss, you'll have to completely disregard the headlines and never take one poll in isolation.

But even that advice doesn't always hold, because sometimes a respected polling outfit will release several swing-state polls in short order that give you whiplash and make you question the nature of reality. This is exactly what has been happening with Quinnipiac recently, who just showed strong and growing support for Clinton in one key state and an inexplicably massive surge for Rand Paul in another...almost simultaneously.

Today, Quinnipiac released polls for three states along with the provocatively-headlined press release "Paul Blooms As Clinton Wilts In Colorado, Iowa, Virginia" wherein they make clear in the first sentence that "Hillary Clinton's lead is wilting against leading Republican presidential candidates in three critical swing states, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia" and later posit that "it is difficult to see Secretary Clinton's slippage as anything other than a further toll on her image from the furor over her e-mail."

While this might sound pretty bad, there's a pretty big problem here that quite frankly calls their practices into question: This headline is demonstrably untruthful and it only takes a quick glance at their results to see why. Hopefully this is simply a careless oversight on their part and not an indication of bias. Either way, it should be corrected soon if they'd like to keep their reputation intact.

The bottom line isn't really all that complicated. Compared to their previous results two months ago, Hillary Clinton is doing a little worse in their polls of Iowa and Colorado while doing a little better in Virginia. Sometimes it's actually more than a little better, as she went from a 42-42% tie into a strong 47-40% lead against Jeb Bush since their last poll. This is significant because Virginia is the biggest state in this batch and has close to as many electoral votes as Iowa and Colorado combined. If she remains strong in Virginia until election day, it would reduce the GOP's odds of winning the White House to almost zero.

So...does this mean that eGhazi actually helped Hillary in Virginia while hurting her in the other two states? That would be pretty weird, so here's hoping that Quinnipiac clarifies this soon... because the world must know!

Another thing you might notice from these press releases is that Quinnipiac is generally pretty gaga about Rand Paul, and there's no better example of this than their utterly bizarre results from Pennsylvania last week.

Clinton crushed Paul in their poll from two months ago by a whopping 19 points (53-34%), but since Pennsylvania is expected to be a pretty solid state for her next year, this didn't seem too surprising. But last week, in a turnaround of epic proportions, Rand gained 20 points and now leads Hillary by 1 point (45-44%)! But it wasn't just Paul who improved in their latest poll, it was the entire GOP field. This is especially weird because their own simultaneous results from Ohio and Florida showed only minimal movement towards Paul and the rest of the GOP...certainly nothing near that magnitude.

This begs the question: Is Pennsylvania suddenly "Rand crazy" or is it just the guys at Quinnipiac? The answer is more likely the latter, because if we look at their party weightings from poll to poll...things look fishy.

Here is the breakdown for their Pennsylvania poll from February 3rd:


And here is the breakdown from their poll from March 31st:


Notice the difference? From one Pennsylvania poll to the next, the Democrats went from an 8-point advantage into a 31-31 tie with Republicans in party ID! No shift of that scale occurs in their other five recent state polls. Obviously, this makes no sense, but according to the press release:
"A red flag in blue state Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton, seemingly invincible before the e-mail scandal, ends up tied with Rand Paul," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Just how bad was the eGhazi thing for Hillary? So bad that it turned hundreds of thousands of registered Pennsylvania Democrats into Republicans and made Rand Paul a serious contender for the White House...all while somehow leaving their next-door neighbor Ohio essentially unaffected!

Puh-leeez.

No matter the reputation Quinnipiac may have, it doesn't shield them from the obvious conclusion that these are wacky polling results propagated with biased and misleading press releases.

They're going to have to do better in the future, because even Gravis Marketing is looking pretty good in comparison right now.

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

The (First) First Gentleman Can't Be Stopped

Still the man.
There's a terrific cover story in Town & Country today about the efforts of former President Bill Clinton in Haiti.

It is the Clinton Foundation way: to build and fast-track creative collaborations between businesses, NGOs, governments, and individuals to address urgent needs in communities at risk. The foundation, the most powerful imagining ever of what a post-presidency can be, currently employs 2,200 people across its various initiatives (including the Clinton Global Initiative) and supports, according to its statistics, 3,100 projects in 180 countries, affecting the lives of 430 million people. (In Haiti alone there are currently 30 foundation-supported investments, and 208 Clinton Global Initiative commitments.) And Clinton, now 68 years old and 14 years into his next act, is as fired up about his work as any man could be. "It has been my whole life for longer than I was president," he tells me later. 

The Clinton Foundation will carry on even while Hillary runs for president, and no phony scandal is going to stop that.
"I think it's important, and Hillary does too, that she go out there as if she's never run for anything before and establish her connection with the voters," he says. "And that my role should primarily be as a backstage adviser to her until we get much, much closer to the election. So our plan is to spend this whole year working on the foundation, which is, by a good long stretch, the most transparent of all the presidential foundations and more transparent than a lot of other major foundations in the country. It should be, both because I believe in it and because Hillary is in public life, and we'll get criticized, as some people are criticizing me, for taking money from a foreign government. We did a review of the whole foundation last year." Clinton is emphatic about this and intent on my noting it. "We got suggestions from a great law firm that also does pro bono counsel for Doctors Without Borders, and we implemented every single one of them."
The entire piece is a fascinating glimpse into the daily work of Clinton and his beloved foundation that is well worth your time.

And how about this amazing photo of the future First Gentleman in Haiti? Epic!

Monday, April 6, 2015

Follow That Bird!


If you not following Hillary Clinton on Twitter, now would be a good time...because at literally any moment, a very special tweet could arrive.
The long and winding prelude to her announcement is nearly over, according to aides, and the start of her second bid for the White House is likely only days away. Top Democratic activists in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire privately say they have been placed on alert that Clinton will soon be on her way.
The specific moment she jumps into the race remains a closely guarded secret, even inside the crowded corridors of her small office suite in Manhattan, which new aides have descended upon to build the operation. Only a handful of confidantes actually know the precise time Clinton will pull the trigger — first on social media — yet aides have been instructed to be ready from Monday forward.
There's lots of interesting if often somewhat vague info in this CNN piece, but at this point it's probably best to let the campaign unfold by itself in the coming days.

Here's how to have a front row seat to history:

1. Go to Twitter.com and sign up if you haven't already.
2. Go to Hillary Clinton's official page.
3. Click the "Follow" button on the right side.
4. Click the "gear" icon right next to it (on mobile devices, it may be a "star").
5. Select "Turn on mobile notifications". 
6. Look for the message "You will now receive mobile notifications for @HillaryClinton's tweets". If you see this, you are all done.
7. It's possible that you'll need to adjust your preferences (if so, follow these instructions).
8. Under Settings/Mobile, make sure to have "Tweets from people you've enabled for mobile notifications" checked.
9. Go back to Hillary Clinton's page and click the "gear" or "star" icon again to verify that mobile notifications are on.

That's it...you're all done!

The fun is just about to begin...

Friday, April 3, 2015

Hillary Clinton Was the 11th Most Liberal Member of the Senate

Guest post by Paul Henry

That's not my opinion. That's what the data says.


DW-NOMINATE is a method for analyzing data on preferences, such as voting data, developed by political scientists Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal. Unlike the scoring done by interest groups, DW-NOMINATE doesn't rely on subjective determinations of what constitutes a liberal vote or a conservative vote--it sorts members of a population according to how similar each member's choices are to those of other members of the population. Two senators who vote the same way 90 percent of the time will be much closer to each other than two senators who only vote the same way 10 percent of the time. Poole and Rosenthal have used this method to discover some interesting statistics and trends going back to the First Congress in 1787-89.

Using House and Senate roll call votes as inputs, DW-NOMINATE has been used to chart every member of every Congress in a two-dimensional space. The primary dimension corresponds strongly to conventional notions of the liberal-conservative axis in modern politics, while the significance of the secondary axis tends to change over time (traditionally it tended to highlight the distance between Dixiecrats and the rest of the Democratic party; today it's kind of a more nebulous indicator of social and cultural differences and is, in my opinion, not particularly interesting). The point is that we can sort the members of a particular Congress by their scores on the primary dimension to easily rank them from most liberal to most conservative based entirely on their own voting data.


And when we do this for the period in which Hillary Clinton was in the Senate, here's what we get:



As it turns out, with a first-dimension score of -0.391 based upon her entire service in Congress, Hillary Clinton was the 11th most liberal member of the Senate in each of the 107th, 108th, 109th, and 110th Congresses. That places her slightly to the left of Pat Leahy (-0.386), Barbara Mikulski (-0.385) and Dick Durbin (-0.385); clearly to the left of Joe Biden (-0.331) and Harry Reid (-0.289); and well to the left of moderate Democrats like Jon Tester (-0.230), Blanche Lincoln (-0.173), and Claire McCaskill (-0.154).


Some more numbers from the 110th Congress, to further help put things in perspective:



Oh, and a certain junior Senator from Illinois, Obama I think his name was? At -0.367, he ranked 23rd in the 110th Congress.

Comparing votes is hardly a perfect way to measure ideology, but it is by far the best method available to bring a measure of quantitative rigor to this inherently subjective topic, and political scientists and statisticians have long relied on DW-NOMINATE for insights about politics and voting behavior. (Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com make extensive use of it to power their own results, for example.)

Like everyone else on Earth who does not wear my clothes and kiss my wife in the morning, Hillary Clinton disagrees with me on some things. The same is true for everyone here, and some of those differences may be profound. That is a conversation we can have. But suggestions that she is "a liberal republican or a conservative dem," to take one example of a quotation I read today, should stop here. By her voting record in Congress, Hillary Clinton is squarely in the mainstream of the national Democratic party in America, and would be a good ideological fit for it as its nominee. If anyone tries to tell you differently, ask them to show their work.


(Note: This excellent piece was posted at Daily Kos earlier this week and the author has graciously allowed it to be reposted at Hillary HQ. Thanks Paul!)

Welcome to Clinton Street!

First, the big breaking news.
A lease has been signed for office space in Brooklyn that is expected to be the headquarters of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, sources familiar with the matter confirmed to MSNBC Friday morning. The move signals that a campaign launch is likely imminent. 
Under federal election rules, candidates have just 15 days to declare a presidential run after engaging in campaign activity, like renting office space, though it’s unclear when Clinton signed the lease. It’s also unclear who or what legal entity signed the document.
The campaign will take up two floors of 1 Pierrepont Plaza in Brooklyn Heights, which is described on its website as “Modern Offices. Brooklyn Cool.” 
Some exciting and historic times are only days away.

And get this: The Clinton campaign headquarters will be on Clinton Street! I wonder if that was just a happy coincidence or if it played into the decision at all.

Either way, how perfect is this?


Thursday, April 2, 2015

No Foolin': Hillary is Still Crushing Everyone in Sight (ABC/WP Poll)

Here is another good example of the media "narrative" at work, and why taking headlines at face value isn't recommended.

With her announcement only days away, this morning Google News displayed a headline from Time reading "Poll Shows Support For Hillary in Decline". Uh oh.

Opening it, the first thing you see is a photo of Mrs. Clinton looking appropriately concerned at her eGhazi press conference. Double uh oh.

The piece also ends by saying she's been "mired in controversy recently". However, in between all this overall negativity, Time mentions a couple of times that she's still beating the Republicans (who all have much worse approval stats)...but there are no matchup numbers to be found.

To find that, you must open up the PDF to find out the bottom line: Nothing has changed.




The poll also finds that she's stronger than ever among the Democratic field.
Clinton continues to cruise on the Democratic side, with 66 percent support against five others – more than quintuple her nearest potential rivals, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, with 12 percent apiece. (Warren this week said she won’t run.) Bernie Sanders has 5 percent; Jim Webb, 1 percent; and Martin O’Malley less than half a percent.
LOL! I thought April Fools was yesterday?

Time was just a waste of time.

The link at ABC News provides much, much more useful information and analysis. For instance, her drop in popularity was mostly from Republicans... which was expected all along.
Clinton’s decline in favorability may have been predictable, in that it’s occurred as she’s moved from being the nation’s top diplomat back to the partisan world of a presidential campaign. It’s occurred chiefly among Republicans, among whom she’s down by 19 points just since January 2014, and Republican-leaning independents. 
The poll also shows that America loves Bill Clinton more than ever. He will be an immeasurably huge asset for Democrats across the board in 2016.
Clinton has further help from the family. A remarkable 73 percent of Americans now say they approve of the way her husband handled his job as president from 1993-2001 – Bill Clinton’s highest retrospective rating on record, as well as higher than any he received while in office. Far fewer, 47 percent, approve of the way Bush’s brother, George W. Bush, handled his presidency from 2001-2009. In their general election matchup, Clinton gets overwhelming support from her husband’s fans, as does Bush from his brother’s.
Before her campaign has even started, there is an enthusiasm advantage that no one can touch.
One advantage for Clinton is early enthusiasm. Among registered voters who support her against Bush, 83 percent describe themselves as enthusiastic about doing so, including 42 percent who are “very” enthusiastic. Among Bush supporters in a matchup against Clinton, many fewer are enthusiastic, 68 percent; and fewer still, 12 percent, are very enthusiastic. To a large degree that’s to be expected; Bush’s supporters vs. Clinton include many Republicans who’d like to see someone else in those shoes, so it’s no wonder they’re less enthusiastic.
Lastly, take a quick look at the gender gap between her and the closest GOP competitor.

Serious question: How does the GOP actually expect to win this thing?

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Clinton Announces Candidacy for President

The 45th President of the United States?
Incredible breaking news out of New York today:
It was a move that no one saw coming. 
Chelsea Clinton, daughter of former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has today announced her candidacy for President of the United States.
"No one should have a monopoly on glass ceiling breakage," Clinton told supporters early Wednesday morning, adding "2016 is also shaping up to be a race between dynasties, and you can't simply marry your way into one." 
Chelsea Clinton turned 35 in February, making her constitutionally eligible for the presidency in 2016. 
In a shrewd maneuver, her announcement officially occurred on Twitter in the wee hours of the first day of April, the very month that her mother was widely expected to announce her candidacy.


Surprisingly, the recent controversy surrounding her mother's use of private email at the State Department seems to have played heavily into her decision.
"Marc and I had a real good laugh about the whole 'convenience' excuse", Chelsea Clinton told USA Today. 
"Listen, I've spent plenty of time around that secret server in Chappaqua, and let me tell you...there are some really dark things going on in there." Clinton said. "I'm talking super-villain stuff that would make Doctor Evil blush. If you take all the craziest conspiracy theories and triple them...that still doesn't get close to what's really going on. It raises many deep concerns."
Reaction to Chelsea Clinton's announcement was swift on all sides of the political spectrum.
"Obviously, this is unexpected but welcome news for the Republican Party." RNC chair Reince Priebus gleefully noted, "If Hillary Clinton's own daughter doesn't trust her to run the country, why should the American people?"
"Um...what?!" DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz shouted. "Let me figure out what the hell is going on here and I'll get back to you." 
President Obama weighed in as well, striking a more diplomatic tone.
"Look, the notion that somehow having two Clintons running against each other will hurt our process is nonsense," the president said. "Our democracy thrives on debate, even if that debate is between a mother and her daughter on the national stage." 
President and Mrs. Clinton were not available for comment at press time.
Stay tuned to Hillary HQ and read more about this rapidly developing story at USA Today.