Thursday, March 5, 2015

Meanwhile, Clinton Leads Walker by 9 Points in New Quinnipiac Poll

A new national poll by Quinnipiac has some bad news for the GOP's flavor of the month Scott Walker: Despite his narrow lead in the Republican field, Hillary Clinton is crushing him by nine points.

Chart via
A few things stand out here.

Despite Walker having a slight lead in the Republican field, he's actually doing just about the worst against Clinton at -9 points (slightly beating Cruz)...and that's because she's dominating the Independents 51-34%. If Walker is the nominee and these numbers hold even somewhat until Election Day, it will be a landslide of epic proportions.

On the flipside, this is Jeb's best result in a long time. He's almost neck-and-neck with Walker among Republicans and only down by 2 points with the Indys against Clinton. This is a striking contrast to last week's PPP poll which had Bush doing the worst against Clinton (50-40%). Rubio is also doing surprisingly well in this poll, which makes me wonder if this might be a Florida-heavy sample.

Also, the sample is +3 R, which is a deviation of 9 points from the most recent presidential election...and according to the methodological details, only demographic weighting was applied. Feel free to do your own math about what the poll would look like if the sample was +6 D. What we can say with certainty is that Hillary is again getting a healthy amount of Republican crossover votes, which is in line with other recent polls.

Please note that this poll was conducted right before the Hillary email story broke, so it's unclear whether her numbers have been dinged in any way. We'll find out soon enough...but the Hillary haters probably shouldn't get their hopes up too much.


  1. While I wouldn't like to see any national polls with Hillary behind, I still wouldn't be too worried about one here or there. I have a lot of confidence in Democratic electoral strategy, especially considered Obama's handy reelection. And remember, they're ALL attacking Hillary, while she has yet to return any fire.

    1. Jeb coming within 3 in this poll is the closest result I've seen so far...I think! But yes, it's all about the swing states, and Hillary is doing great there.