Thursday, February 5, 2015

North Carolina: Clinton Edges Walker in New PPP Poll

A new PPP poll of North Carolina shows that the state should remain every bit as close in 2016 as it was in 2008 and 2012, if Hillary is the nominee:
Clinton polls within 2 points of all the Republicans we tested against her on the survey. She leads Scott Walker 46/44, is tied with Ben Carson at 45%, is tied with Jeb Bush as well at 44%, and would have trailed Mitt Romney 45/44. North Carolina was the second closest state in the country in each of the last two Presidential elections, and it looks like there's a decent chance that trend will continue next year.
Here's how it looks in pie chart form, via 270toWin:

Question: Is this the first Clinton vs Walker state poll outside of Wisconsin? If so, it's a bit encouraging, because she actually does best against him right now...even with the wind at his back.
PPP's newest North Carolina poll provides further evidence that Scott Walker is the momentum candidate in the Republican Presidential contest right now. Walker is tied with Ben Carson and Jeb Bush for the lead in the state at 14%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 13%. Those four constitute a clear first tier of contenders. Polling further back are Ted Cruz and Rand Paul at 6%, Chris Christie at 5%, and Rick Perry at 3%. 
The next question might be "What would the polls look like with another Democratic candidate, such as Elizabeth Warren?" A PPP poll from a couple of months ago has an answer:

Obviously, these are early polls so take them for what they're worth. But this much is certain: Hillary Clinton is the only Democratic candidate who'll start her campaign in a terrific position to keep North Carolina very close in 2016...and maybe even win it.

And if the GOP can't count on this may well be a foreshadowing of their electoral doom.


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