Monday, February 2, 2015

Clinton Would Likely Stomp Walker in Wisconsin

Here's a quick reminder to harsh the buzz of enthusiasm among Republicans who might be thinking they've found their 2016 white knight: Scott Walker most likely can't even win his home state in a presidential contest against Hillary Clinton.

There have been a couple of hypothetical Clinton vs Walker polls in Wisconsin in the past two years, after he'd been in office for years and (somehow) won two elections by that point. In other words, it was long enough for just about everyone in the state to have a pretty solid opinion of him. I'll let the graphs do the talking.

The most recent of these was released nine months ago, and it showed a seven-point lead for Hillary...which happens to be the same margin of Wisconsin victory for Obama in 2012.
There will be no Republican favorite son in Wisconsin in 2016 if Democrat Hillary Clinton runs, because she would slay Gov. Scott Walker and Rep. Paul Ryan, according to a new poll that bolsters growing calls for Clinton to get into the race. 
The Public Policy Polling survey of 1,144 registered voters gives Clinton a 50-percent to 45-percent lead over local congressman Ryan and a 51-percent to 44-percent edge over Walker, the state's governor. 
“It speaks to the strength of Hillary Clinton that she leads top potential Republican Presidential candidates like Paul Ryan and Scott Walker even in their home state,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. 
Republicans have made the state competitive in recent elections, though the last Republican presidential candidate to win Wisconsin in the general election was Ronald Reagan.
Yep, no Republican presidential candidate has won the...cough..."swing state" of Wisconsin in over thirty years. Even having Paul Ryan on Romney's ticket made no major difference last time around.

Additionally, a Marquette poll from last May found that Wisconsin voters absolutely did not want Walker to run for president...with only 27% approving of the the idea!

Of course, none of this means that Walker can't win his home state next year, but it sure looks like a pretty herculean effort will be required to turn it around. Because having some success in Republican midterm wave elections and a (highly unusual) recall is one thing...beating a Clinton in a presidential election is another.

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