Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Clinton (Mostly) Dominates GOP in New Swing State Poll

Are all these polls showing Hillary dominating the potential GOP field getting boring? Too bad...because there was another one Tuesday by Quinnipiac, this time of three key swing states.

Here's a quick summation:

In Pennsylvania, she crushes all Republicans by an incredible 15-20 points...with the exception of Chris Christie, who manages to be down by only 11 points.

In Ohio, she's up by 11-15 points on all of them except their current governor John Kasich, whom she's besting by one point at 44%-43%...but he doesn't appear to be running right now anyway.

In Florida, she's beating them all by 10-18 points (Rubio included), except for their former governor Jeb Bush, who she is also beating by a point at 44%-43%.

A few takeaways:

-Is Pennsylvania even a swing state in 2016? These are the kind of margins we'd expect in New Jersey.

-These are awful numbers for "electable establishment candidate" Jeb Bush. It even looks like his home state will be a struggle, and Ohio looks just about lost before it even begins. Though if Kasich becomes his running mate, it would help a little.

-Even If Kasich runs and somehow wins the nomination, Ohio would also be a struggle for him as well...and I can only guess that Florida would be fairly out of reach. Though again, Bush as his running mate would help.

-Wait a second...Kasich/Bush 2016? Yeah right!

-At this very early stage, a Bush/Kasich ticket seems like their only hope...but judging from these numbers, winning both Ohio and Florida seems like a long shot (running mates usually don't make a huge difference...ask Paul Ryan).

-Ohio and Florida probably won't be required for Hillary anyway, because she'll hit 270 with the Kerry states plus New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia.

2 comments:

  1. This poll, even more than others, has got to be a sobering wake-up call for them. What would one do in their position? I'd be thinking "We need a game-changer soon, before it's too late!" What about Kasich / someone new, possibly a charismatic Latino, to put Florida back in play and help in the West?

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    1. It's pretty grim for them. It's like a racetrack with all the horses still in the gate except one...who's already halfway around the track going top speed.

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