Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Clinton Leads Bush and Paul by Double Digits in New Hampshire

The first general election poll of the year from New Hampshire has arrived...and it looks like we might have another not-so-swingy "swing state" to throw onto the growing heap.
If the presidential election was between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, 51% of likely voters say they would vote for Clinton, 39% would vote for Bush, 2% support someone else, and 8% are undecided. At this point, members of both parties heavily support their candidate with a significant amount of independents undecided. Clinton holds an early edge over Bush among Independents, 49%-26%. 
Via 270toWin.
Rand Paul does better than Bush because of more support from independents...but it doesn't help him enough.
If Paul were the Republican nominee, 50% of likely voters say they would vote for Clinton, 40% would vote for Paul, 2% support someone else, and 8% are undecided. Paul fares better among independents than Bush as he gets 44% to Clinton’s 38%. 
New Hampshire went for Clinton, Obama and Kerry in the past several cycles, and considering their healthy habit of electing women to statewide office...it seems like this one might be a pretty tough sell for Republicans in 2016. Their only shot here might be putting Senator Kelly Ayotte on the ticket, but that would take the focus off bigger electoral targets like Ohio and Florida.

Hmm. All this sounds pretty good, but I feel like I'm forgetting another big reason why New Hampshire will most likely be a strong state for Hillary.

Oh yeah...



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