Monday, January 19, 2015

Run, Huck, Run!

There's a new ABC News/Washington Post poll out today. In addition to rising approval numbers for President Obama (quite relevant for 2016), they also polled several potential GOP candidates against Hillary Clinton. Curiously, however, they have only released one result so far. 

Among registered voters nationwide: 


The pollster notes that the rest of the matchup numbers will be released later this week and also makes a fascinating comparison:
It’s their first test in an ABC/Post poll in this cycle, and much better for Clinton than a hypothetical matchup in late 2007, when she and Huckabee ran essentially evenly among registered voters, 48-45 percent. 
Perhaps these results were released first out of a possible expectation of a similarly close result? Who knows, but this is a striking shift which hints that Hillary is in an even stronger position for the general election now than she was about 8 years ago.

Huckabee, who won the 2008 Iowa Republican caucuses, has remained in the public eye with his own show on Fox News since 2008. He's not as establishment as Mitt Romney or Jeb Bush nor as controversial as Ted Cruz or Rand Paul, making him a potentially safe fallback candidate for conservatives over the course of the next year or so. Plus, the idea of an 'Arkansas Showdown' sounds kind of fun too. Whatever the reason, he's someone that the Republicans could feel good about as their nominee in 2016.

Conveniently, Democrats would probably feel pretty chipper about that too.

3 comments:

  1. I love seeing polls like this, but I'm tempering my optimism, knowing that things might tighten up when the R candidate has actually been chosen. Or it could get even worse for them after they say a bunch of stupid stuff in the debates. So I guess I'm not tempering my optimism. I'm very optimistic!

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  2. Couple of interesting things on the RCP site: In their R nominee national polling average, Bush leads leads the pack, with Christie following. However, it looks like they haven't been including Romney in their polling; I'd like to see an national R poll with Romney in it. Romney is leading in an Iowa poll. Sure wouldn't mind those two bleeding each other dry all the way thru the primary season!

    The thing I really liked is their most recent Dem pres nominee poll, with Hillary leading 66 to 23 of all other candidates combined. This must be unprecedented.

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    Replies
    1. It's undoubtedly going to tighten...in no way should we expect a 17-pt blowout. The key point is the incredible position of strength that Hillary would have when she comes into this race.

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